In the final throes of Theresa May’s Brexit negotiations, the biggest noises were being made at home, by a squabbling cabinet and a riotous Conservative party. Yet as Boris Johnson’s negotiations reach their endgame, the chatter is strangely muted.
First, in the cabinet. While Johnson’s cabinet does not comprise solely hard Brexiters, all were chosen for their roles in the understanding that they would be prepared to back a decision from the prime minister to go for no deal.
Some ministers had historically been queasy about a full-scale no deal, including the justice secretary, Robert Buckland, the culture secretary, Oliver Dowden, and the Welsh secretary, Simon Hart. In total there are eight former remainers in the cabinet, though the top jobs are all held by prominent Brexiters.
But over the weekend ministers made it clear privately to the Sunday papers that there was a united resolve to pursue such a path. There is no equivalent of the “Gaukward squad” that existed under May, involving David Gauke, Philip Hammond, Greg Clark and Amber Rudd.
James Cleverly, a Foreign Office minister and close ally of Johnson, struck a defiant tone on Monday, saying: “Yes, time is tight, yes it might go right to the wire, and indeed it may well be that we don’t get the deal.”
May’s threats of no deal never seemed particularly realistic because of the fierce resistance from the Treasury under the then chancellor, Hammond. Johnson does not face the same resistance from Rishi Sunak. The current chancellor’s most recent spending review did not even mention the impact of Brexit, despite a warning from the governor of the Bank of England that the economic cost of no deal would be bigger in the long term than the damage caused by Covid-19.
The most senior minister who is known to have had qualms about the impact of no deal is Michael Gove, the chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster and the minister closest to David Frost’s negotiations. Gove’s growing scepticism about no deal was said to have been formed during his time as environment secretary, when he saw the scale of the burden it would put on the sector.
But in October Gove said in an article for the Times that he was reconciled to no deal, though he insisted he was “not blithe or blase” about the challenges. That intervention was designed to send a signal to Brussels that everyone who mattered was now entirely onboard.
The other challenge could be Brexiter MPs, many of whom have publicly praised Lord Frost’s negotiations. If there are last-minute concessions or compromises by the UK, murmurings of discontent could become a roar very rapidly, as happened after May’s Chequer’s agreement was announced.
The red line for the group is total sovereignty – and there are enough in the European Research Group of hard Brexiters to defeat Johnson’s handsome majority. The group receive advice from a group of Brexit-backing lawyers on whether a potential deal would tie the UK to the EU’s rules in any form whatsoever. If it would, they will move against it – and Johnson.
Ripe for triggering a rebellion will be any agreement on a so-called “ratchet clause” – which applies when either side develops its environmental, social and labour standards over time, the other side faces consequences such as tariffs on exports should it choose not to follow with equivalent regulations.
(January 31, 1961) Brefusal
The French president, Charles de Gaulle, vetoes Britain’s entry to EEC, accusing the UK of a “deep-seated hostility” towards the European project.
(January 31, 1973) Brentry
With Sir Edward Heath having signed the accession treaty the previous year, the UK enters the EEC in an official ceremony complete with a torch-lit rally, dickie-bowed officials and a procession of political leaders, including former prime ministers Harold Macmillan and Alec Douglas-Home.
(January 31, 1975) Referendum
The UK decides to stay in the common market after 67% voted "yes". Margaret Thatcher, later to be leader of the Conservative party, campaigned to remain.
(January 31, 1984) 'Give us our money back'
Margaret Thatcher negotiated what became known as the UK rebate with other EU members after the "iron lady" marched into the former French royal palace at Fontainebleau to demand “our own money back” claiming for every £2 contributed we get only £1 back” despite being one of the “three poorer” members of the community.
It was a move that sowed the seeds of Tory Euroscepticism that was to later cause the Brexit schism in the party.
(January 31, 1988) The Bruges speech
Thatcher served notice on the EU community in a defining moment in EU politics in which she questioned the expansionist plans of Jacques Delors, who had remarked that 80% of all decisions on economic and social policy would be made by the European Community within 10 years with a European government in “embryo”. That was a bridge too far for Thatcher.
(January 31, 1989) The cold war ends
Collapse of Berlin wall and fall of communism in eastern Europe, which would later lead to expansion of EU.
(January 31, 1990) 'No, no, no'
Divisions between the UK and the EU deepened with Thatcher telling the Commons in an infamous speech it was ‘no, no, no’ to what she saw as Delors’ continued power grab. Rupert Murdoch’s Sun newspaper ratchets up its opposition to Europe with a two-fingered “Up yours Delors” front page.
(January 31, 1992) Black Wednesday
A collapse in the pound forced prime minister John Major and the then chancellor Norman Lamont to pull the UK out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism.
(January 31, 1993) The single market
On 1 January, customs checks and duties were removed across the bloc. Thatcher hailed the vision of “a single market without barriers – visible or invisible – giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world’s wealthiest and most prosperous people".
(January 31, 1993) Maastricht treaty
Tory rebels vote against the treaty that paved the way for the creation of the European Union. John Major won the vote the following day in a pyrrhic victory.
(January 31, 1997) Repairing the relationship
Tony Blair patches up the relationship. Signs up to social charter and workers' rights.
(January 31, 1999) Ukip
Nigel Farage elected an MEP and immediately goes on the offensive in Brussels. “Our interests are best served by not being a member of this club,” he said in his maiden speech. “The level playing field is about as level as the decks of the Titanic after it hit an iceberg.”
(January 31, 2003) The euro
Chancellor Gordon Brown decides the UK will not join the euro.
(January 31, 2004)
EU enlarges to to include eight countries of the former eastern bloc including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
(January 31, 2007)
EU expands again, allowing Romania and Bulgaria into the club.
(January 31, 2015) Migrant crisis
Anti-immigration hysteria seems to take hold with references to “cockroches” by Katie Hopkins in the Sun and tabloid headlines such as “How many more can we take?” and “Calais crisis: send in the dogs”.
(February 1, 2016)
David Cameron returns from Brussels with an EU reform package - but it isn't enough to appease the Eurosceptic wing of his own party
(June 23, 2016) Brexit referendum
The UK votes to leave the European Union, triggering David Cameron's resignation and paving the way for Theresa May to become prime minister
(January 31, 2020) Britain leaves the EU
After years of parliamentary impasse during Theresa May's attempt to get a deal agreed, the UK leaves the EU.
Many of those MPs, including the former minister Steve Baker, have also found themselves at odds with Johnson over coronavirus restrictions, so goodwill is in short supply. And many have spoken repeatedly in glowing terms about Sunak, seen as Johnson’s most likely successor.
Quieter still are the soft Brexit Tories, vastly depleted in number after more than 20 were dismissed from the party by Johnson last year and more decided not to stand in 2019. Those who remain, including Clark and the former ministers Stephen Hammond, Steve Brine and Huw Merriman, are pretty much resigned to the hardest of Brexits after the 2019 election result.
In the end it could be Labour that saves Johnson’s blushes on a deal, with Keir Starmer minded to whip his MPs to vote for any deal to avoid a no-deal scenario. Should this be so, Johnson may have more room for any last-minute concessions, knowing he will pass whatever deal he secures.
