LONDON -- Negotiations between the British government and the European Union over Brexit are set to reach a climax this fall. However, recent disarray on the British side makes it feel as if we are watching a slapstick performance at the "Brexit Theater."
A leading part is played by Oliver Robbins. The 43-year-old civil servant who started his career at the Treasury is the closest aide to Prime Minister Theresa May and serves as her Europe adviser. Although rarely seen at center stage -- it is said he is always by May's side -- he developed much of the government's policies on how to negotiate with the EU, and also handled preliminary negotiations.
For May, who lacks a strong political power base, Robbins represents her last hope -- not just on the EU issue -- because he is capable of communicating articulately within the ruling Conservative Party, which has been anguished by awkward intraparty relationships. His sturdy build and backstage work have led some in British political circles to call him "the tallest but least visible man to have the fate of the country in his hands."
Attention on him heightened when May declared, "I will lead the negotiations with the European Union," in a written statement to Parliament on July 24.
The British government newly established the Department for Exiting the European Union in July 2016, immediately after the decision to withdraw from the EU, to steer negotiations with the EU.
However, May changed the department's mandate by saying in the statement: The secretary of state for exiting the European Union will deputize on my behalf. In other words, the negotiating authority shifted to 10 Downing Street, which means Robbins is to control the Brexit issue both in name and reality.
The twists and turns over the past two years are the first act of the drama. It is said that the second act opened on July 12 this year, with the publication of the Brexit White Paper, which laid out basic policies for future relations with the EU. Robbins was believed to have written the outline of the white paper, as well as being responsible for the shift in authority.
What is important about the paper is that the May Cabinet officially approved its basic policy the previous week. It marks a watershed moment in the sense that the future British policy toward the EU has been formed as a unified policy for the first time.
The May administration had not been able to unify its policies over Brexit, as the confrontation between hard-line "Brexiteers" who demand a complete withdrawal from all EU rules and regulations, and moderates who support a "soft Brexit" and emphasize economic relations are deadlocked. Political stagnation accompanying the friction invited derision from the EU. May contained the hard-liners by force to make a deal within the Cabinet, and steered the policy in a moderate direction.
Nonetheless, such rough handling has destabilized the administration, especially since the resignations of Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. In any event, the second act has started. As the drama continues, one of three possible scenarios is expected to unfold.
The first scenario is, of course, an orderly exit where Britain and the EU agree on a deal and ratify a Brexit treaty. Britain would then withdraw from the EU on March 29 next year, and a transition period would run until the end of 2020. The second scenario is a no-deal Brexit -- that is, no agreement will be reached and Britain will withdraw in disorder. The last scenario is to have a second referendum.
What is most worrying is that speculations of a no-deal Brexit have been mounting since the beginning of this month as the EU's dissatisfaction with the white paper remains unabated. Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox, a hard-liner on Brexit, went so far as to say on Aug. 5 to a British newspaper, The Sunday Times, that the chance of a no-deal departure was "60-40." A disorderly withdrawal would surely entail inflation and a serious upheaval of economic activities, both at home and abroad.
Building a broad framework for a trade system needs a significant amount of time. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement took roughly 10 years from its conception to reaching an agreement. Brexit is undoubtedly an equally difficult undertaking. Even with the transition period included, there is too little time to pull off the task. Even Robbins would likely struggle to write the script.
We regard Britain as a model in its relationship between politicians and civil servants. As Britain enters a critical juncture in its Brexit negotiations, it should be politicians who resolutely think about how to run the show.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, August 12, 2018)
Read more from The Japan News at https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/
