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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Phillip Inman

MPC could boost quantitative easing

A sheet of freshly printed money
The MPC could sanction a £25bn QE boost – a sum of money almost equal to the entire tax credit bill. Photograph: David Levenson/Alamy

The Bank of England's interest rate setting committee could add another £25bn to its £325bn programme of quantitative easing when it meets on Thursday.

Only last month rising inflation was deemed to be sufficient to deter the monetary policy committee (MPC).

There was some positive news from surveys of output in the manufacturing and services sector that also told the committee things are on the up.

So 30 days ago an increase in demand for goods and services and a rise in prices indicated the UK's performance was improving. Today the situation is so bad the MPC could sanction creating a sum of money equal to almost the entire tax credit bill (£27bn), or three-fifths of the defence budget ,and using it to buy government bonds, mostly from our banks.

What is the public expected to think? One minute the experts say we're on an upward trajectory, the next they appear to say the opposite.

Of course, they haven't said anything yet this week and they could still sit on their hands.

But analysts at Capital Economics believe there is a distinct possibility the QE total will soon be £350bn. It calls the autumn as a likely moment.

Phil Shaw, chief economist at Investec, reckons this week. In his analysis "sticky inflation versus stuck economy" he thinks the committee will worry more about low growth than an inflation rate that is taking longer to come down than it predicted.

Is there a way to escape this minute by minute stop/go stance? First the MPC needs to stop thinking too much. It examines vast quantities of economic data and tracks its every movement and seemingly forgets the big picture. The wider underlying theme is that the UK economy needs all the help it can get. The private sector wants reassurance from policymakers that they will work hard to maintain growth. They are not getting that reassurance from the Treasury, so they need it from the central bank.

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