Mountain West Win Totals: Who Provides Best Value?
Early season win totals are out.
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Two locations have released their win totals from Caesars and the sportsbook from Draft Kings and they are both different enough to possibly change a bettor’s opinion on to take the over-under on each site.
We will do our best to guide the right way on what team to take the over on for these win totals — hopefully, there will be a season to best on as well.
We will go alphabetical order with both websites projections listed and the way we would be leaning. Also, with these picks, you have to take an over or under so if a win total is set at six wins you have to take seven or five. That makes the games on the half mark easier to pick.
Also, these are for regular season games only, so no bowl, conference title games, or playoff games count to these totals.
Air Force
Caesars – 8.5
Draft Kings – 8
Unless you are really, really, really, sure stay away from whole numbers because if the Falcons get eight wins, you lose. Personally, Falcons likely should be above eight wins so both should be achievable.
Air Force returns one of the best running backs in the conference in Kadin Remsberg who split time with other Falcons running backs, which is normal, but if he is the guy then Air Force will have a top-tier back and a returning experienced quarterback in Donald Hammond III. Nine wins seem likely and taking the over on both is a pretty nice play.
Boise State
Caesars – 9.5
Draft Kings – 10
Predicting a team to win 11 games is foolish, regardless, how good if it is Alabama, Clemson, or Boise State. The Broncos have the benefit of doubt to winning so many games over the past two decades, they also return some talent on this 2020 team including quarterback Hank Bachmeier.
The Draft Kings line is extremely iffy, either way, going over to 11 wins has happened only twice since they joined the Mountain West. However, taking 10 wins from Caesars for the over to hit is much more likely. In that same timeframe of the Broncos, they have won 10 or more regular season games six times.
Colorado State
Caesars – 6.5
Draft Kings – 6
The Rams have a new head coach in Steve Addazio but the offense is still in place with players like QB Patrick O’Brien and WR Warren Jackson could be the best passing duo on the Mountain West.
Basically, if you are taking the over you are saying that the Rams are going to a bowl game this upcoming year. Their non-conference schedule is manageable with games vs. Colorado, Oregon State, Vanderbilt and Northern Colorado. However, in league play they have to travel to Boise State, San Diego State and Air Force.
There is potential for Colorado State to make a bowl game but this is an iffy proposition to take the over but it is not out of the possibility for them to go bowling. Of the two, personally would take the under on both but lean toward Caesars because a bowl game is in the works.
Fresno State
Caesars – 6
Draft Kings – 6
Fresno State has a lot going on with a new quarterback and a new head coach in Kalen Deboer. Last year, the Bulldogs went just 4-8 and the optimism is wishy washy, specifically with no spring football. The six-win total is also making this line one to stay away but the safe bet would be to take the under.
Hawaii
Caesars – 6
Draft Kings – 6
A theme within the Mountain West is new coaches and the Warriors fit into that with Todd Graham taking over for Nick Rolovich. Hawaii does play 13 regular season games so that gives them a leg up to get to this six win total. If Hawaii stays true, or close, to the spread offense and with Chevan Cordeiro under center the team should be on track for a bowl game.
Again, with the line of six for both outlets, it is not easy to make a pick but the over should be fairly confident in the Warriors getting to seven.
New Mexico
Caesars – 3.5
Draft Kings – 3.5
Sorry, but take the under. This is a Year 0 situation for Danny Gonzales. The Lobos do have winnable games on its schedule in New Mexico State, UMass and Idaho State. Beyond that, maybe they get a win as they host San Jose State. Realistically just stay away from betting this team.
Nevada
Caesars – 5.5
Draft Kings – 6.5
This could be one of the more sure things on the board. Well, at least for the Caesars line at 5.5. Nevada is one of two teams in the West to return its head coach and quarterback. They have running back Toa Taua who is entering his third year as the starter.
They also get to host two of the tougher teams in Wyoming and San Diego State. The over even for Draft Kings could be doable but go with Caesars.
San Diego State
Caesars – 8
Draft Kings – 7.5
This one is interesting. San Diego State has a new coach in Brady Hoke but he has been on staff as the defensive line coach and also is making his second stint as Aztecs head coach which he did well in years ago.
There is no quarterback at the moment with the graduation of Ryan Agnes. The running game does lose Juwan Washington but his health last year hurt San Diego State more than being helpful.
This team has had fewer than seven wins just one time since 2011, so taking the over from Draft Kings is a safer bet since it only takes eight wins to get the win.
San Jose State
Caesars – 5.5
Draft Kings – 5
This seems a bit high for San Jose State who was really close to going to a bowl game last year but losing QB Josh Love probably means the team is going to take a step back. They do have wide receiver Tre Walker but they need more than a game-changing wide out. Under is the safe bet.
UNLV
Caesars – 3.5
Draft Kings – 3
This could be another safe bet to take the under with Marcus Arroyo one of many new coaches in the Mountain West. The Rebels have talent in running back Charles Williams who should be the rock of this offense. The defense had issues as well las year and UNLV is 129th out of 130 in FBS for returning production.
Basically, this is a Year 0 like in New Mexico.
Utah State
Caesars – 5
Draft Kings – 5.5
This seems low. Even with the lose of quarterback Jordan Love and a few defenders like David Woodward. Henry Colombi is slated to be the starting quarterback and should be somewhat close to Love’s 2019 production (probably not 2018).
However, the schedule is tough with games vs. Washington State, at Washington, at BYU, at Boise State, at Wyoming, and at Nevada. This line is possibly the most difficult to pick. A bowl game could be in the works and maybe even probably but finishing with five games seems unlikely for how Utah State has played over the past few years. Utah State has made a bowl game in six of the seven years while a Mountain West member. My pick is to pass on making any bet on this lne.
Wyoming
Caesars – 6
Draft Kings – 6.5
This might be the most obvious to take the over. Wyoming will have a really good defense even by losing Logan Wilson and others. The quarterback situation is not clear but Sean Chambers player very well as did Levi Williams in limited action. Plus, they have the best running back returning in Xazavian Valladay.
Their schedule is not easy with a non-conference game at Louisiana, hosting Utah, and going to Ball State is not exactly a walk in the park. As for league play, the host Boise State, San Diego State and Air Force. The Cowboys have a big spread for the number of wins but they should surpass seven.
