Mountain West Football: Every Team’s Biggest Midseason Question
The college football season is at its midway point, so we look at what each Mountain West team will need to resolve in the second half.
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A wide open conference race with plenty of intrigue.
Air Force
The big question: Have the Falcons finally solved their pass defense problem?
Depending on the metrics you choose to examine, the answer might be… well, maybe? The splits they’ve put up to this point in wins compared to losses — 14 pass breakups, three interceptions, and a 126.83 opponents’ passer rating in the former; three, zero and a 189.01 rating in the latter — hasn’t been this drastic since the Falcons won the division in 2015, which is to say when they’ve been on it’s been a huge part of their early successes.
With games against Hawaii and Utah State in the next two weeks, there’s a good chance we’ll have a firmer answer for this question very soon.
Boise State
The big question: Can the offensive line right the ship?
Starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier was knocked out of last Saturday’s win over Hawaii with an injury, an event that anyone who’s watched even a little bit of Broncos football this fall would’ve known was only a matter of time. The line has been under fire despite suffering a fair bit of its own injury luck, namely with John Ojukwu, so while the 6.2% sack rate allowed is actually the same as last year, the hits clearly added up and may have obscured that other shifts might be the subtle keys between a close win and a close loss as the season progresses.
To start, the Broncos went from being one of the nation’s best power running teams to one of its worst, falling from a 81.8% Power Success Rate (ninth in the FBS) to 57.1% (110th). Their Opportunity Rate has held steady but, at 46.5%, remains below the national average, though Boise State’s Stuff Rate has seen modest improvement and ranks 33rd nationally at 16%. Long story short, they’ve merely been okay in more areas than you’d expect, so tough defenses like Wyoming and Utah State might make the climb back to the top of the Mountain tougher than expected if things don’t improve.
Colorado State
The big question: Is the defense finally coming around?
It was going to get better from last year, so improving from dead last to ninth on a per-play basis in the Mountain West probably counts as a win to most Rams fans. Since the start of conference play, however, John Jancek’s much maligned unit has actually been… quietly good?
Against Utah State, San Diego State, and New Mexico, the Rams have allowed just 4.71 yards per play, the third-best figure in Mountain West action. They’ve also picked up six tackles for loss per game compared to four in non-conference play, collected a conference-best seven sacks, and allowed opponents a 31.8% third-down conversion rate.
There’s still work to be done as the Rams still rank 104th and 110th in Defensive Stuff Rate and Opportunity Rate, respectively, but there’s potential that they may continue to surprise.
Fresno State
The big question: Where is Jared Rice?
Lost in the emergence of the Bulldogs’ young wide receivers is that their senior tight end has been MIA all season long. To date, he has just ten catches for 48 yards after he averaged 47.4 receiving yards per game in 2018.
While it’s hard to pin down Fresno State’s inconsistencies coming down to one particular thing, finding ways to get the 6-foot-5 Rice more involved in the offense would probably cure a lot of ills. Jorge Reyna has shown he can work well in the short and intermediate passing game, so the potential is there to rediscover that element of the offense.
Hawaii
The big question: Can the high-flying offense take better care of the football?
Since joining the Mountain West in 2012, avoid turnovers has rarely been a strong suit for the Warriors. Twice, they have racked up 34 giveaways, but this season has taken that to a new extreme because Hawaii is on track for 41 turnovers, a number that would be surpassed by only the 2017 San Jose State Spartans among Mountain West teams in the last decade.
One thing that looks like it might swing back into their favor is horrendous fumble luck. Hawaii has fumbled 11 times and lost nine of them, an 81% rate that might be surpassed nationally by just the Florida Gators (they’ve lost eight of nine).
Nevada
The big question: Can the defense develop a pass rush?
It isn’t easy unearthing a talent like Malik Reed, but while the Wolf Pack can boast a surprisingly stout run defense that ranks in the top 30 nationally by Opportunity Rate, Stuff Rate and Line Yards Allowed Per Carry (the line gets credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards and 50% credit for yards 4-8, while lost yardage counts for 125%), they’ve been inconsistent about defending the pass and the lack of a pass rush could be the biggest reason why.
Nevada currently owns a team sack rate of just 3.4% and on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer) that plummets to just 1%, a figure surpassed nationally by only conference foe San Jose State. There’s still talent in the front six, but Dom Peterson, Gabe Sewell, and company will have a lot of sway in the team’s chances to hang in the West division race.
New Mexico
The big question: They’re not really going to drag out Bob Davie’s tenure, are they?
The Lobos haven’t quite reached Mike Locksley era despair in 2019 — the offensive and defensive lines have been solid and the offense has shown some explosiveness — but their massive weaknesses have sunk any chance they’ve had to be competitive from week to week and set the head coach’s set aflame. The #Throwbos offense has been inefficient and turnover-prone and they’ve been a disaster in pass defense.
No other Mountain West defense in the last decade has allowed more yards per attempt (10.4) against FBS competition. Four teams have had 27 pass attempts, over 400 passing yards and at least two passing touchdowns against New Mexico in the first six games, which no other Mountain West team has ever allowed in an entire season. With games against Hawaii, Boise State, and Utah State still on the horizon, it could get even worse.
San Diego State
The big question: Can Juwan Washington get back to being Juwan Washington?
It isn’t for lack of trying. Despite missing time with injury, no running back in the Mountain West has averaged more carries per game than Washington’s 21.8… and no one has been less efficient. No running back in the country with at least 75 carries has a lower per-carry average than his 3.05 YPC.
This problem doesn’t fall entirely on him, since the offensive line ranks just 117th in line yards per carry, 118th in Opportunity Rate, and 125th in Stuff Rate, but it’s clear the Aztecs want Washington to be a focal point of the offense. If he can rediscover his home run bonafides — he has zero runs of 20 yards or more so far this season — San Diego State’s improving offense could take a giant leap forward.
San Jose State
The big question: How far can Josh Love carry the offense?
David Fales’s 2013 campaign remains the standard by which all Spartans quarterbacks are judged, but Love has a reasonable argument for the number two spot to this point. Given the running game’s continued struggles, the leap forward he has made as a senior, and the potential jump he has left to make, will probably define the rest of the season.
When he’s been on, Love has played like one of the best quarterbacks in the conference: He owns a 66.4% completion rate in SJSU wins, and he’s averaged 8.9 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and one interception. The Spartans offense has stalled most when Love is erratic, as evidenced by the 52.7% completion rate in the team’s three losses. Despite the disappointing start to conference play, San Jose State still has plenty on the line and Love will make or break the season.
UNLV
The big question: Is the offense finally in a good place?
For most of 2019, the Rebels tried to be more balanced with Armani Rogers under center and it didn’t work out too well. They increased their percentage of pass plays from 42.7% to 48.8%, but their overall completion percentage increased from 51.1% to 52.3% while their yards per attempt (5.8) remained the same and their percentage of 20-yard pass plays fell from 6.6% to 5.6%.
It wasn’t until they got back to basics last week, with Kenyon Oblad at quarterback, that UNLV finally had its best offensive performance of the year. They ran the ball 74% of the time and averaged 5.5 yards per play, so while there’s still work to be done, there’s hope that the tinkering is finished and the Rebels might prove a headache in the West like they were last fall.
Utah State
The big question: Can Jordan Love get right?
If you take the Aggies’ blowout win out of their senior quarterback’s season totals, the overall stat line looks very un-Lovely: a 60.1% completion rate, just 6.6 yards per attempt, and five touchdowns against eight interceptions. That last figure might be the most concerning, as it equals a 5% rate that’s more than three times higher than how he performance against FBS competition in 2018.
When it comes to pass protection, you could make the case the overhauled offensive line has done its part by pointing to a tiny 1.6% sack rate that ranks second in the FBS (and a 2.7% rate on passing downs that’s seventh), and USU’s schedule over the next month — Nevada, Air Force, BYU, and Fresno State — should give Love the opportunity to get back on track. If the Aggies want to stay on a collision course with Boise State for the Mountain division crown, they’ll need it.
Wyoming
The big question: Will the passing game come around by season’s end?
We’re not saying that the Cowboys are basically a triple-option team, but the four teams with a more lopsided play-calling ratio favoring the run are Georgia Southern, Air Force, Army, and Navy. Wyoming has thrown the ball 31.17% of the time after throwing it at a 35.4% clip last fall and the evidence for this trend is painfully obvious.
It’s worth remembering that Sean Chambers still hasn’t started a full season’s worth of games. While he’s firmly entrenched himself as perhaps the Mountain West’s best running quarterback at this point, but he’s also had four games to this point with at least 12 pass attempts and a completion rate of 37.5% or lower, which is something that no other offense in conference history, not even in New Mexico or UNLV’s bleakest years, has done in one season. Their ceiling might be limited if the issue isn’t resolved, but if it does… the sky might be the limit.
