Mountain West Football: Division Champion Tiebreakers, Explained
If Utah State beats Boise State on Saturday, what happens next? It could get messy, but we explain the possibilities.
Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire
If chaos erupts, here’s how to make sense of it.
Little by little, the race to the Mountain West football championship has cleared and there are now just five teams left in the running. In the West division, things are pretty clear cut: San Diego State will head to Hawaii for a winner-takes-all contest against the Warriors this Saturday.
There are still a few possibilities, however, in the Mountain division. Boise State visits Utah State with a chance to wrap things up cleanly this weekend, but if the underdog Aggies pull off an upset at home, things could get pretty interesting with another week to go after that.
In that event, it would be time to start talking about tiebreakers. The Wikipedia page for the Mountain West title game lays out how each potential outcome is prioritized and the conference itself put out a document which explains the step-by-step process, but I’ll explain how each situation could come to be and who would benefit.
Two-team Tiebreaker Procedures
Head-to-head results between the tied teams:
- Air Force (7-1) beats New Mexico and Wyoming, Boise State (7-1) beats Utah State and loses to Colorado State — Boise State wins the division
- Air Force (7-1) beats New Mexico and Wyoming, Utah State (7-1) beats Boise State and New Mexico, Boise State (6-2) loses to Utah State and Colorado State — Air Force wins the division
- Utah State (7-1) beats Boise State and New Mexico, Boise State (7-1) loses to Utah State and beats Colorado State, Air Force loses to New Mexico and/or Wyoming (6-2 or 5-3) — Utah State wins the division
- Utah State (6-2) beats Boise State but loses to New Mexico, Boise State loses to Utah State and Colorado State (6-2), Air Force loses to New Mexico and Wyoming (5-3) — Utah State wins the division
- Hawaii (5-3) beats San Diego State (5-3); Nevada loses to Fresno State and/or UNLV (4-4 or 3-5) — Hawaii wins the division
Three-team Tiebreaker Procedures
#1: Head-to-head results between the tied teams:
- Hawaii (5-3) beats San Diego State (5-3), Nevada wins out (5-3) — Hawaii wins the division
In potentially beating both the Aztecs and the Wolf Pack, Hawaii would own the head-to-head edge and would win the West division.
What about the Mountain division? If Utah State beats Boise State and then the Aggies, Broncos and Air Force all win their season finales, each team would finish 7-1. However, none of them would finish with the head-to-head tiebreaker: Boise State beat Air Force, Utah State beat Boise State, and Air Force beat Utah State. More on this later.
It’s still possible, too, that all three teams could finish with two losses:
- Utah State beats Boise State and loses to New Mexico (6-2), Boise State loses to Utah State and Colorado State (6-2), Air Force loses to either New Mexico or Wyoming (6-2)
Keep this scenario in mind as I’ll be referring to it a lot. In either case, the conference would go to the second tiebreaker…
#2: Winning percentage in games played against division opponents
This is the tiebreaker which enabled Wyoming to emerge from the Mountain division in 2016, since the Cowboys went 4-1 against its division opponents and Boise State and New Mexico were both 3-2.
If all three teams finish with one loss: This wouldn’t help since they would all finish undefeated against Colorado State, New Mexico, and Wyoming, finishing 4-1 in Mountain division play.
If all three teams finish with two losses (as outlined above):
- Air Force: win vs. CSU and UNM/Wyo, loss vs. UNM/Wyo (2-1)
- Boise State: win vs. UNM and Wyoming, loss vs. CSU (2-1)
- Utah State: win vs. CSU and Wyoming, loss vs. UNM (2-1)
In sum, each team would finish 3-2 in Mountain division play, so we’re stuck here, as well. The conference would then move to the third tiebreaker…
#3: Winning percentage against the next-highest placed team in the division (based upon the team’s conference record), proceeding through the division
If all three teams finish with one loss: Same as the second tiebreaker. We’re still deadlocked because all three teams would be perfect against fourth, fifth and sixth place. We’d have to move to tiebreaker number four, which we’ll get to in a minute.
If all three teams finish with two losses (as outlined above): Now we’re cooking. Fourth place never mattered so much, and at this point we turn our attention to this Saturday’s iteration of the Border War between Colorado State and Wyoming.
Here’s the first thing to remember at this point: The rules state that lower-ordered teams are considered one entity if they finish in a tie, against which winning percentage is measured. What this means is that the tiebreaker plays out differently if either CSU or Wyoming finishes 5-3 instead of ending up at 4-4.
Here’s the second thing to remember, as explained in the document written by the Mountain West Conference and updated back in July:
If, at any time during this analysis, any team(s) should gain an advantage over the other team(s) tied at that position, the team(s) holding the advantage shall move forward in the tiebreaking process while the other team(s) are eliminated. If it is reduced to a two-team tie at any point, the process shall then revert to the beginning of the tie-breaking procedures (tie between two teams) and shall be applied (in order) until the two-team tie is broken.
If you’re starting to feel like Charlie Kelly tracking down Pepe Silvia, don’t worry. You aren’t alone down here in this rabbit hole. There are three potential scenarios here.
Scenario 1: Any two-loss scenario assumes that the Rams beat Boise State, so there’s no way that Colorado State can finish in fourth place and finish 4-4. If they get there, it’s because they win the Border War.
- Colorado State (5-3) beats Wyoming (4-4 or 3-5): win vs. Boise State, loss vs. Air Force and Utah State — Boise State is out as lone team to lose to 4th-place CSU, Air Force has head-to-head tiebreak vs. Utah State, Air Force wins the division
Scenario 2: What happens if Wyoming wins the Border War? The Cowboys could then get to 5-3, and sole possession of fourth place, by handing Air Force its second conference loss:
- Wyoming (5-3) beats Colorado State (4-4) and Air Force (6-2): win vs. Air Force, loss vs. Boise State and Utah State — Air Force is out as lone team to lose to 4th-place Wyoming, Utah State has head-to-head tiebreak vs. Boise State, Utah State wins the division
Scenario 3: Wyoming could finish 4-4 if they beat CSU but lose to Air Force. If we know the Rams beat Boise State in this scenario, they would finish 4-4, as well. The last two weeks would have to play out like this to get here:
- Wyoming (4-4) beats Colorado State and loses to Air Force, Colorado State (4-4) loses to Wyoming and beats Boise State (6-2), Air Force (6-2) loses to New Mexico and beats Wyoming, Utah State (6-2) beats Boise State and loses to New Mexico
Bob Davie, Lord of Chaos? It could happen. In our hypothetical 4-4 tie, winning percentage against Colorado State and Wyoming would be taken together rather than separately:
- Colorado State (4-4): win vs. Boise State, loss vs. Air Force and Utah State
- Wyoming (4-4): loss vs. Air Force and Boise State and Utah State
Boise State is 1-1 and Utah State and Air Force are each 2-0. The Broncos would be knocked out and we’d go back to the first two-team tiebreaker, where Air Force has the head-to-head advantage on Utah State and would thus win the division.
One way or another, the Border War winner and the two-loss scenario would, at this point, bounce things back to head-to-head results. Assuming again that each team finishes with two losses as outlined at the onset, here are the potential scenarios again:
- Scenario 1: Colorado State beats Wyoming and Boise State — Boise State is out as lone team to lose to 4th-place CSU, Air Force has head-to-head vs. Utah State, Air Force wins the division
- Scenario 2: Wyoming beats Colorado State and Air Force — Air Force is out as lone team to lose to 4th-place Wyoming, Utah State has head-to-head vs. Boise State, Utah State wins the division
- Scenario 3: Wyoming beats Colorado State but loses to Air Force, Air Force loses to New Mexico — Boise State is out as lone team to lose CSU and/or Wyoming, Air Force has head-to-head vs. Utah State, Air Force wins the division
Did you get all that? Basically, losing out doesn’t end well for the Boise State Broncos, so it is best to just take care of business sooner rather than later.
#4: Winning percentage against common conference opponents
At this point, we’re back to dealing with the one-loss scenario where the Falcons, Broncos, and Aggies all finish 1-1 against each other and each team finishes 7-1 in conference play. This tiebreaker brings the West division into the fold but, again, there’s no break to be found here because all three teams finished 3-0 against the West. Get ready, though, because the fifth tiebreaker could cause controversy…
#5: The two highest-ranked tied teams are identified, and will revert to the two-team tiebreaker, using a few different potential criteria
The first factor considered at this point are the College Football Playoff rankings, assuming that teams in the top 25 win in the season’s final weekend. Thankfully, a one-loss scenario requires all three teams to do just that. The former, though, requires some speculation right now: If Utah State beats Boise State to set this all up, is that win big enough to bounce the Broncos from the top 25 before they head to Fort Collins?
Furthermore, if Air Force beats New Mexico to get to 9-2 before their finale against Wyoming, could the Falcons be in the top 25? Regardless of how you project the committee’s outcomes, Utah State is at a serious disadvantage here. To keep it simple, if Boise State and/or Air Force are ranked by the CFP and all three teams win their respective finales in this scenario, the Broncos and Falcons would revert to the two-team tiebreaker. Since Boise State owns the head-to-head advantage, they would win the division.
If there are one or no Mountain West teams in the CFP top 25, however, then we go to the computer rankings to decide the one or two teams destined for the two-team tiebreaker. While there is no specification of which computer rankings the Mountain West would rely upon, we can speculate based on the six programs used throughout the BCS era: Anderson and Hester, Billingsley, Massey, the Colley Matrix, Sagarin, and Wolfe. Here’s where each of the three Mountain division teams stand after Week 12.
- Air Force — Anderson and Hester: 24 | Billingsley: 27 | Massey: 31 | Colley Matrix: 23 | Sagarin: 33 | Wolfe: 24 | Average computer ranking: 27
- Boise State — Anderson and Hester: 18 | Billingsley: 19 | Massey: 28 | Colley Matrix: 18 | Sagarin: 27 | Wolfe: 20 | Average computer ranking: 21.67
- Utah State — Anderson and Hester: 42 | Billingsley: 47 | Massey: 58 | Colley Matrix: 40 | Sagarin: 61 | Wolfe: 37 | Average computer ranking: 47.5
Utah State is a distant third, but projecting how the computers would react to an Aggies upset over Boise State is impossible here. Even if Air Force and Boise State switched positions in the eyes of cold hard math, though, remember that this is only a mechanism to reduce the three-way tie to two teams. It also seems unlikely that Utah State could make up so much ground in two weeks, so they would probably get knocked out at this point.
And with that, we go back to head-to-head results. Because Boise State beat Air Force, the Broncos would win the division.
The most likely outcome, of course, is that Boise State takes care of business and renders all of this moot by Saturday night but, in the world of college football, you never know so it’s best to be prepared for anything.
