Mountain West Football: 12 Statistics That Will Shape The 2019 Season
Each Mountain West football team has one measure that will shape their 2019 season.
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Here’s what is worth noticing.
Mountain West football season is nearly here and it seems like the race to the top of the conference is more wide open than it has been in some time. With so much personnel change across the board, things could turn on the little things that don’t always appear obvious at first glance… but what are some of those things that fans should be aware of?
Here are the key statistics that could ultimately shape who ends up where in 2019:
Air Force
The key: Yards per pass attempt allowed
Pass defense has been a question mark for the Falcons through the past few seasons, but last year was particularly rough. Air Force allowed nine yards per attempt through the air, the team’s worst figure of the last ten seasons, which goes a long way toward explaining why they were also 125th in Pass Defense S&P+ and Passing Downs Defense S&P+.
A secondary that could break up more passes — they were last in the Mountain West there, too, with just 29 passes defended — would help the Falcons fulfill their promise as a dark horse pick in the Mountain division.
Boise State
The key: Third-down Success Rate
Last year’s Broncos set a lot of high bars for this year’s iteration to match, but regression seems almost certain by this particular metric. In short, the Broncos were eighth nationally in avoiding third-and-7-or-more and fifth nationally in setting themselves up for third-and-1, and then they were second overall in success rate on all of their third downs.
The question here, then, is how much regression there will be. With a new running back and a new quarterback set to replace Alexander Mattison and Brett Rypien, a big slip could put a huge dent in how efficient the offense will be.
Colorado State
The key: Defensive success rate on Standard Downs
A standard down is defined as “first downs, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, and fourth-and-4 or fewer” and, well, the Rams just weren’t good any of those situations last fall, ranking 125th by allowing opponents 50% of what they needed on first downs, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.
Put simply, Colorado State will need to win more early downs if the defense wants to rebound from allowing a conference-worst 6.79 yards per play.
Fresno State
The key: Defensive stuff rate
For as tough as the Bulldogs were on defense in 2018, the fact that they stopped running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage just 15.8% of the time, a figure that ranked 112th nationally, may come as a surprise. With nearly everyone coming back on the defensive line, however, and Mykal Walker at middle linebacker, they seem almost certain to improve and should offset some potential regression elsewhere.
Hawaii
The key: Rushing yards per carry
One of the things that might have gotten overlooked as the Warriors offense sputtered after a hot start is that the ground game, while not the most important element of the run-and-shoot, had a fairly significant decline throughout 2018. After averaging well over five yards a carry in the team’s first six games, Hawaii’s duo of Fred Holly and Dayton Furuta mustered only 3.89 YPC in the last seven.
Adding Miles Reed to the committee is almost certain to help, but whoever totes the rock will have to do their fair share to keep defenses from teeing off on Cole McDonald.
Nevada
The key: Giveaways
One of the most surprising notes from last season is that the Wolf Pack had their most successful season since 2010 despite finishing with a Mountain West-worst 28 giveaways. There was no one culprit for this, either, since Ty Gangi and Cristian Solano combined to throw 17 interceptions, tied with New Mexico for the most in the conference, while Nevada’s quartet of running backs lost five of ten fumbles.
Greater care with the football is significant to every team, but if the defense is slow to coalesce in replacing stars like Malik Reed and Asauni Rufus, it could be especially so for a Wolf Pack team with every right to feel they have a chance at a division title.
New Mexico
The key: Passing marginal explosiveness
On its face, New Mexico’s 19 passing plays of 30-plus yards may not seem like much. It only ranked eighth in the Mountain West, after all, but then they only threw the ball 288 times. That 6.6% rate was better than, among others, Hawaii and Utah State.
The Lobos made a habit of creating more explosive plays through the air than would be expected in 2018, ranking 12th nationally by passing marginal explosiveness. Elijah Lilly and Anselem Useh were one of only two Mountain West duos with a marginal explosiveiness above .60 with at least 30 targets each, so any ability to recreate that big-play potential could help the Lobos surprise this season.
San Diego State
The key: Points per trip inside the 40
Back in 2015, the Aztecs were number one in the country in finishing drives that reached the opponents’ 40-yard line. It’s a long way down from the top, though, as their ranking has dropped from first to 18th to 46th to, last year, 104th.
Losing over a point and a half per trip, over the course of a season, is substantial, so figuring out how to better close drives would be a good way for SDSU to put last year’s offensive frustrations far behind them.
San Jose State
The key: Adjusted Sack Rate
There aren’t too many instances of “nowhere to go but up” in the Mountain West but solving this issue, which plagued the Spartans all of last season, could pay huge dividends. Per Bill Connelly, San Jose State ranked dead last nationally by ASR and Passing Downs sack rate, so any improvements that Cade Hall and company can offer in 2019 could go a long way toward helping SJSU escape the West division cellar.
UNLV
The key: Opportunity Rate
How good can the Rebels’ running backs be once the offensive line does its job and gets them the first five yards? UNLV did improve from 40% to 48.7% as a team last year, but they may also have left something on the table: Lexington Thomas’s individual Opportunity Rate was still only 40%, while Armani Rogers and Charles Williams finished at 57% and 58.5%, respectively.
Xazaviar Campbell and Evan Owens each cleared 50%, too, so the new runners stepping into more prominent roles, like Chad Maygar and Tariq Hollandsworth, will be pushed to get to that second level just as often.
Utah State
The key: 4th-quarter pass attempts from Jordan Love
It seems like a lot to ask of the Aggies that they roll over so many opponents again, like they did for much of 2018, so if the chips are down this fall it will be up to Utah State’s senior quarterback to make the most of those opportunities, especially if the Aggies hope to contend for the Mountain West crown.
Love had just 41 pass attempts in the fourth quarter all of last year, but the good news is that his splits were relatively consistent even late into games. Among the 12 quarterbacks in the conference with at least 40 fourth-quarter attempts, he trailed only Marcus McMaryion and K.J. Carta-Samuels in completion percentage and was bested by just Carta-Samuels and Cole McDonald by passer rating.
Wyoming
The key: Power Success Rate
The Cowboys very clearly have made their bones in running the football over the past few seasons, but they weren’t quite as good on either side of the ball in winning short-yardage situations. Power Success Rate is the “percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieve a first down or touchdown” and Wyoming ranked 119th on offense and 120th on defense on those downs.
Both of those figures seem likely to regression to the national average thanks to better health and a more stable quarterback situation, but any further gains could help the Cowboys become a dangerous and efficient contender.
