Mountain West Basketball: Predicting Each Team’s Ceiling, Floor In ’19-20
Predicting the ceiling and floor for each Mountain West team in ’19-20
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Each MW team’s ceiling and floor in ’19-20
One of the highly-debated topics of the offseason is predicting each team’s best- and worst-case scenarios for the upcoming season.
Following a season where Utah State – picked ninth in the preseason poll – shared the regular season title and won the conference title and San Diego State and New Mexico – picked second and third, respectively – combined to finish .500 in league play, it’s anyone’s guess as to what could happen in ’19-20.
Nevertheless, here’s my attempt at predicting each team’s ceiling and floor this coming season.
Air Force
Ceiling: 20-plus wins, top four MW finish, contention for MW autobid
Floor: 10 wins, bottom four MW finish
You won’t hear about the Falcons outside of MW circles, but Dave Pilipovich’s team could be really, really good next year. Air Force returns basically everyone from last season’s sixth-place team. Lavelle Scottie (15.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Ryan Swan (12.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG) are the conference’s best frontcourt duo.
Boise State
Ceiling: 25 wins, MW regular season title, contention for MW autobid
Floor: 15-17 wins, bottom half MW finish
After a rare down season, Leon Rice and the Broncos are back in the swing of things. The team’s top four scorers return and Boise State also adds big-time former recruits and Pac-12 transfers in Emmanuel Akot and Abu Kigab, pending NCAA’s eligibility approval. This squad could be scary come February and March.
Colorado State
Ceiling: 15-17 wins, top half MW finish
Floor: 10-13 wins, bottom four MW finish
With a bevy of transfers and recruits committing in recent weeks, CSU seems to be building towards a strong ’20-21 campaign. As for ’19-20, the Rams will need to significantly improve their defensive effort (Colorado State was 261st in defensive efficiency last season) to build upon last year’s 7-11 league record. Nico Carvacho is one of the best big men in league history.
Fresno State
Ceiling: 20-23 wins, top four MW finish, contention for MW autobid
Floor: 15 wins, bottom half MW finish
Justin Hutson faces an uphill battle after having lost a pair of 18-points-per-game scorers in Braxton Huggins and Deshon Taylor as well as three-point specialist Sam Bittner. Neither a top four finish nor a bottom half finish would be a surprise to me for the Bulldogs in ’19-20. The losses are big, but Fresno State’s returning core and newcomers are a solid bunch.
Nevada
Ceiling: 23-25 wins, MW regular season title, contention for MW autobid
Floor: 15-17 wins, 5th-7th place MW finish
The first year of the post-Eric Musselman era will be an interesting one. The Wolf Pack’s entire senior-led starting lineup is gone, but Steve Alford has arguably the best backcourt in the MW in Lindsey Drew, Jazz Johnson, and Jalen Harris. Even though the frontcourt is thin, Nevada should be in the mix for the regular season title for the fourth consecutive season.
New Mexico
Ceiling: 25 wins, MW regular season title, contention for MW autobid
Floor: 13-15 wins, bottom four MW finish
There is no other team in the Mountain West with as much of a gap between its ceiling and floor this coming season. The Lobos could legitimately win the league title or finish in the conference’s bottom four and it wouldn’t be a major shock to anyone. New Mexico has a loaded roster from top to bottom but the defining factors come down to chemistry and if everything will mesh.
San Diego State
Ceiling: 23-25 wins, MW regular season title, NCAA Tournament victory
Floor: 17-20 wins, 5th-7th place MW finish
Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs teams have maintained a similar pattern through two years of starting the season slow before gaining momentum late to make a push for the Mountain West title game. The welcoming of backcourt transfer studs Malachi Flynn and K.J. Feagin should offset losing three of the team’s top four scorers. Joel Mensah and Jordan Schakel are breakout candidates.
San Jose State
Ceiling: 7-10 wins
Floor: Yikes
It’s hard to set any sort of substantive expectations when you lose your best two or three players year in and year out. Every double-digit scorer under Jean Prioleau has transferred. Things aren’t looking positive this year for the Spartans, which are 14-94 in league play since joining the Mountain West.
UNLV
Ceiling: 20 wins, top four MW finish, contention for MW autobid
Floor: 13-15 wins, bottom four MW finish
Expectations for T.J. Otzelberger and the Rebels figure to be sky-high in ’20-21. As for this coming season, the focus will be implementing a winnable system with a young core. UNLV figures to be fairly average after saying goodbye to three starters (not counting Shakur Juiston, who’s also gone). Otzelberger’s style should immediately catch traction in Vegas, though.
Utah State
Ceiling: 25-plus wins, MW regular season title, NCAA Tournament second weekend
Floor: 20 wins, top four MW finish, contention for MW autobid
With Neemias Queta back for year two, Utah State is a consensus top 20 team in way-too-early preseason polls. Queta and Sam Merrill are the league’s top duo and both could creep into the All-American conversation. The only major departure is Quinn Taylor, but it’s offset by JUCO transfer Alphonso Anderson and Sean Bairstow. Craig Smith‘s squad is loaded.
Wyoming
Ceiling: 15 wins, 5th-7th place MW finish
Floor: Also yikes
Justin James alone contributed over a third of Wyoming’s scoring and nearly half of the team’s assists last season. The Cowboys still finished 10th in the league and 317th in KenPom with the NBA Draft’s 40th overall pick. It’s hard to envision things being significantly better without him.
Eli Boettger is the lead basketball writer at Mountain West Wire. He’s covered Mountain West basketball since 2015 and his work has been featured on Bleacher Report, NBC Sports, SB Nation, Yahoo Sports, MSN, and other platforms. Boettger is a current USBWA member.
