An accusation constantly levelled at the current Labour Party is it operates by focus group, moving position, designing policy, according to what people say in those things.
It’s no more true of them than anyone, I suppose, although they do have that feel of twisting in the wind at the moment.
Risky things, focus groups. Sometimes we do them at newspapers and they’re not, putting it mildly, 100% accurate. The results vary, because people feel obligated to tell you what you want to hear, or take the chance to say something outrageous.
For example, people tell us they don’t like stories on crime (they do), what they really like are good-news stories (they don’t), they’re not bothered about politics (hang on) and they want to read more rugby league (extremely good shout).
Politics ones are similar, a lot of noise and an occasional grain of truth. Lord Ashcroft (remember him?) gave a presentation this week, heavy on stats but with some interesting focus group bits.
It was mixed-messaging for Labour. Mr Sunak came over as out of touch, rich, boring. But there was nothing too inspiring around Mr Starmer and his party.
One respondent said: “They might do a good job but hardly worse than this lot.”
As Mr Ashcroft says himself, hardly a ringing endorsement.
Worryingly, another said: “I might vote Conservative but they need to sort themselves out first.” A few months ago, that would have struck fear into the hearts of the Opposition. Not now, as what became clear this week is there is no danger anytime soon of them sorting themselves out. PMQs saw Mr Sunak utterly deflated.
He’s fought off a lot of attack lines but now one word above all others has done him: mortgages.
It’s terrifying. Not only because the coming crisis tanks any hope of the Tories being able to point to the economic credibility their slim hopes rested on, but because he can see the horror that’s about to follow.
It is not going to be pretty. I had to read lots of economic stuff to write this next bit and it is a combination both depressing and frightening. Like the Leeds United fixture list (Preston away on Boxing Day. How did this happen?).
House prices will plummet. And the Bank has no means of breathing life back into the economy beyond cutting interest rates (erm) and printing money. It’s going to be an incredibly difficult few months – more likely years – for everyone.
Chances are if you’re reading this, according to our focus groups, you are probably mortgage-free.
In which case, spare a thought for the rest of us. Maybe even consider letting out a room.
Competition for that stuff is going to be phenomenal, so I’d like to get this in early: I am very quiet, work mostly at night and can do - if I say so myself, a decent spag bol.
