Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Adam Jonas began coverage of Elon Musk-led Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX), sharing a price target of $300/share for the commercial space flight giant.
Adam Jonas Bullish on SpaceX
In a new note released on Monday, Jonas predicted a bull case of $300/share for SpaceX, a nearly 87.5% upside from its current price of around $160/share. The analyst also predicted that SpaceX could report revenue of $319 billion by the end of the decade, as well as $3.3 trillion by 2040.
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Jonas predicted that, long-term, SpaceX would adopt an end-to-end AI model while also recording $4 billion in annual revenue through Cursor. The analyst also sees the majority of SpaceX’s CapEx spending “directed toward Terafab, Solarfab, and other vertical integration efforts” that would “drive down both $/watt and time-to-power” on Earth.
However, SpaceX would eventually move to space-based AI compute. “While we are believers in the advantages of space-based AI infrastructure over the long-term, we also think the market underappreciates SPCX’s terrestrial AI economics,” Jonas said.
Starship, CapEx Needs
For Starship, Jonas said that the firm sees “a path to launch costs of ~$500/kg by 2030 and below $150/kg by 2040,” which were contingent on successful testing and “rapid reusability of both the first and second stages” of the rocket.
“Starship, V3 broadband satellites, and Mobile Gen 2 satellites should significantly expand available capacity,” Jonas said on Starlink. He added that in the long-term, he sees the service “becoming a connectivity layer for virtually every data-transmitting device that requires reliable coverage beyond the reach of terrestrial infrastructure.”
SpaceX could require $300 billion in CapEx annually by 2031, Jonas said, meaning that it wouldn’t have positive free cash flow before 2035, he said, adding that the “greatest risk” to the forecast was needing $84 billion of external capital per year from 2027-2034.
“SpaceX combines near-monopoly launch economics, the world’s largest LEO satellite network and a fast-scaling AI infrastructure business,” the analyst said, with the largest upside tied to Starship, Starlink capacity and terrestrial and orbital compute.
SpaceX Nasdaq 100 Entry, Trump Accounts Donation
The comments come as SpaceX will enter the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, being one of the fastest index inclusions in history. The entry would trigger billions in forced buying as index funds and ETFs tracking the benchmark would be required to buy SpaceX.
Meanwhile, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell announced that she and her husband would be donating SpaceX shares to President Donald Trump‘s “Trump Accounts” for over 2 million children aged 11 to 17 from lower average household incomes.
According to Benzinga Edge Rankings, SpaceX fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.
Price Action: SpaceX shares were unchanged 0.00% to $158.60 during premarket trading on Tuesday.
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