The UN's envoy to Burma, the former Nigerian foreign minister Ibrahim Gambari, kept himself busy yesterday, even though the junta's head, Gen Than Shwe, did not seem in any rush to meet him. Mr Gambari met other leaders in Naypyidaw, the new capital the regime walled itself into two years ago, which offers a safe distance from much of the population. In Rangoon, he met Aung San Suu Kyi, the opposition leader and nobel peace prize winner, who has lived mostly under house arrest since winning the annulled 1990 election. No foreigner had been allowed to see her for nearly a year, so the meeting may be a sign the regime is rattled.
If so, the cause is not strong language from Washington and London, which the generals are used to brushing off. Rather, it is fears about what Japan and China might do. Tokyo is Burma's biggest source of aid, but after the death of one of a Japanese photographer in the crackdown, it may look to attach political strings to the cash. China, meanwhile, has the crucial trade and investment links. Those interests led it to fight off sanctions last week. But, under the glare of the world's eyes, it has spoken out in tougher terms than before. If Europe and the US can develop China's acquiescence, it is still possible Mr Gambari's will be able to deploy a credible economic threat to secure concessions on behalf of the arrested monks and other protestors who now look set for barbaric incarceration. If not, however, Mr Gambari will be able to do nothing more than talk.
Tony Blair thought the right words behind the scenes could change America's Middle East policy. South Africa's government similarly believed that quiet talk might mend the ways of Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe. The reality, though, is words change things when they are backed by the possibility of action. Mr Gambari must to talk to the generals. But the world must make clear to his audience that there will be a serious price for failing to listen.
