3D-printer shipments will grow exponentially until 2018, according to analysts at Gartner.
But even with that growth rate, 3D printing is likely to remain a niche pursuit for many years to come, as the firm predicts worldwide shipments of 3D printers to be just 2.3m in 2018.
“As radical as the forecast numbers may seem, bear in mind that even the 2.3m shipments that we forecast will be sold in 2018 are a small fraction of the total potential market of consumers, businesses and government organisations worldwide,” said Pete Basiliere, research vice president at Gartner.
Estimates as to the total size of the market vary; while Gartner predicts total spending hitting $13.4bn by 2018, rival analysts CCS Insight estimate that the value of that market will reach $4.8bn by 2018.
But while consumer 3D printing will grow 10-fold, to sales of 850,000 by 2018, it’s not where the money is. Instead, CCS says that more than three-quarters of the revenue will come from industrial systems, where massive 3D printers are used for prototyping and manufacturing in aerospace, automotive and healthcare sectors.
These sell for hundreds of thousands of pounds each, and are better seen as an incremental improvement in the manufacturing process than the categorical shift which many predict will accompany widespread consumer-level 3D printing.
“Consumers will only buy 3D printers if they can see a clear use for them,” says Arnaud Gagneux, VP Technology Transformation at CCS. “To drive mass sales, manufacturers need to change the perception that 3D printers are simply a bit of fun and create sustainable demand beyond just an occasional need.”
Gagneux has particular criticism for the unfriendly nature of many consumer 3D printers, and says that “current 3D printing technology relies on understanding complex user interfaces, many of which are well beyond casual users.”
But Gartner voices a note of hope for consumer printing, predicting that the ability to “plug and print”, letting a user free themselves from the nitty-gritty of setup, will come in 2014. Of course, there’s a trade-off to be made: one way of introducing plug and print capability is to mimic the ink cartridges common amongst 2D printers, which “maximise the likelihood the materials will work well,” Gartner says.
“The vast majority of mainstream consumers will demand the simple and consistent operation that ‘plug and print’ can provide them.”
There remain potential stumbling blocks. Take-up could be critically hindered if prices stay high, or if intellectual property limits the use of the devices. Early adopters are already seeing some intellectual property conflicts affect what they can and can’t print. In 2013, Square Enix forced one 3D printing site to take down figures based on characters from its game Final Fantasy VII. And way back in 2011, Warhammer creators Games Workshop forced Thingiverse to take down a 3D-printed miniature for wargame Warhammer 40K.
