More than 22,000 jobs could be permanently lost as pubs struggle to recover from the pummelling inflicted by the Covid-19 pandemic, a report has estimated.
The predicted lay-offs are based on hard-pressed boozers regaining half of their normal customers, which is seen as an optimistic scenario.
DCU economist Tony Foley, who compiled the grim study and believes it will be 2023 before we see a return to pre-Covid levels, said: "Even if pubs regain half their normal capacity by the end of 2020, which is an optimistic scenario, as many as 22,500 jobs could be permanently lost, not to mention countless more in supporting trades like catering, security, and entertainment.
"We anticipate that economy-wide and hospitality-related levels of consumer demand will be lower after lockdown due to the higher level of unemployment and reduced earnings.
"It will likely be 2023 before we reach pre-Covid labour market conditions.
"Without doubt, Ireland’s drinks, hospitality and tourism sectors have been among the worst impacted.
"Due to restrictions, there is almost zero tourism and reduced demand in our hospitality sector.
"This impacts our entire economy and so represents a sector that requires Government intervention."
The Licensed Vintners Association, the Vintners Federation of Ireland and Ibec group Drinks Ireland have called for a temporary reduction in the alcohol sales VAT rate in pubs.
The three organisations have stressed the change is needed to 'support a 7,000-strong network of nationwide pubs that will struggle in the short-term’.
The LVA, VFI and Drinks Ireland commissioned report has stated that most bars will reopen with only 40% of their customers, indefinitely.
The ‘Reduce VAT on On-Trade Alcohol’ study was published as part of the ‘Protect our Pubs’ campaign to highlight the role pubs play in communities and the losses should some never reopen.
Meanwhile this week, one-third of Dublin pubs remain closed.
Outside the capital, more than 60% of boozers remain closed.
New Government guidelines and social distancing rules have brought significant changes with reduced capacity and time-limits on customer visits.
Thousands of pubs, which do not serve food, will face a major challenge when they reopen on July 20.
Padraig Cribben, Chief Executive, of the VFI said: "A reduction in the VAT on alcohol would deliver an immediate support to these businesses and instantly improve their commerciality, supporting the initial recovery phase and survival of pubs over the next few months as demand is reduced and costs increase."
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