There are some interesting numbers in the latest YouGov polling figures, which are now on the YouGov website. The key one shows that more than 12 million people still have not made up their minds how they are going to vote on election day.
YouGov found that 64% of their respondents had already "pretty much made up their mind" about the election. But 28% said they might still change their mind. Given that there are 44 million people registered to vote, that suggests there are 12.3m votes still up for grabs. (The figure rises to 15.4 million if you include the 7% who replied "don't know" to the question.)
By chance, the figure for those who have not made up their mind is almost identical to the figure for those saying they are "absolutely certain" to watch at least one of the televised debates (27%). Earlier this week, at a debate about new media and the election, Nick Robinson, the BBC's political editor, said the debates would be a success if more than 10 million people watched them. This poll suggests that figure is going to be hit.
YouGov also asked who was likely to perform best in the debates. David Cameron came out top, with 42%. Gordon Brown was well behind, on 16%, and Nick Clegg came third, on 11%. This looks good for Cameron.
But it isn't. As we've learned from televised debates in America, expectations matter. These figures suggest that it is going to be quite easy for Brown to put in a performance that will strike observers as surprisingly good.
