On paper, the Blackhawks’ penalty kill — even after a 3-for-3 outing in Sunday’s much-needed win over the Kings — remains in bad shape.
The Hawks have killed 22 of 30 opponent power plays through the first 10 games of the season, a 73.3 percent success rate that ranks 26th in the NHL. It’s barely better than last year’s rate of 72.7 percent, which was the worst full-season performance by any team in three decades.
But there’s a clear trend of when the Hawks’ penalty kill is respectable, like it was Sunday, and when it’s not. And it’s determined by the starting goalie.
Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford have each started five games. Lehner has recorded 24 saves on 25 shots while shorthanded, a .960 save percentage that tops his (still solid) .928 even-strength save percentage. Yet Crawford, while virtually identical to Lehner at even strength (.929), has saved only 10 of 17 shots while shorthanded, equating to a hideous .588 save percentage.
Whether those stark differences are due to small sample size luck, the two goaltenders’ actual caliber of play or the play of the penalty kill units in front of them is unclear. The true answer is probably a mixture of all three.
Certainly, sample size is playing a role, as it does with any statistic analyzed this early in the season. There’s absolutely no realistic way Crawford continues to save fewer than 60 percent of the shorthanded shots he faces.
On the other hand, labeling Lehner an excellent penalty-kill goaltender and Crawford a rather mediocre penalty-kill goaltender can be supported convincingly with their career data — even from Crawford’s multiple-Cup-winning prime.
Lehner’s career shorthanded save percentage (over 270 games) is a fantastic .894; Crawford’s is a much lower .869, which falls right in line with the league average.
Narrowing the query down to high-danger scoring chances while shorthanded, Lehner’s career save percentage is .807, whereas Crawford’s is .758; the league average of .781 falls right between them.
Clearly, there’s something Lehner — the hulking 6-foot-4, 240-pound Hawks newcomer, whose prior career statistics span stints with the Senators, Sabres and Islanders — does differently, be it mental or physical, on the penalty kill.
There’s also something logical to the idea that the Hawks’ penalty kill units play more effectively in front of Lehner.
His size affords him the ability to play deeper in net and be less exposed by deflections and cross-ice passes, two events that occur much more frequently in 5-on-4 than in 5-on-5 situations. That frees up the penalty kill to play more aggressively and pressure the puck towards the perimeter of the defensive zone, rather than collapse down passively to protect the crease.
The success they’ve had in front of him, moreover, may serve as positive reinforcement for those effective strategies.
One way or another, improving the PK will be crucial for the Hawks as they enter their second 10-game segment of the season.
They’ll need quite a bit more than six points out of this next portion to remain within striking distance of the playoff line, and doing so won’t be easy, with a four-game road trip — beginning Tuesday in Nashville — to start off.
Jeremy Colliton has rewarded Lehner lately for his strong play, starting him in three of the last four games. For the sake of the penalty kill’s viability, continuing that pattern would be a wise move.
