A new season brings hope and fresh challenges. Will players who had success in 2018 be able to duplicate it in 2019? And will those who struggled be able to improve on their poor performances?
Patrick Mahomes: 5,000 yards, 50 TDs
Patrick Mahomes will come up short on the 50 TDs, but will once again reach the 5,000-yard plateau. It isn’t so much opponents will figure out the third-year quarterback from Texas Tech. More because the Chiefs will be without Kareem Hunt for an entire season and Tyreek Hill’s status is highly questionable. Tough to replace one of those two let alone have to consider trying to fill both voids, which could happen.
Ezekiel Elliott: 1,434 rushing yards
The Dallas Cowboys’ star running back should top the mark of 1,434 yards he reached in 2018 … with a caveat. The former Ohio State great needs to be around for all 16 games. If the NFL hits him with any discipline for his recent run-in with a security guard at the Electric Daisy Carnival in Las Vegas, all bets are off. Elliott tends to be his own worst enemy.
Michael Thomas: 125 receptions
This is a mighty hill to climb for any receiver, let alone try and duplicate it. The belief is the New Orleans Saints’ Michael Thomas will continue to get better but his catches will not grow. Thomas increased his grabs by 21 from 2017 and he actually was targeted two less times. This is the kind of chemistry he has with Drew Brees. Expect the pair to continue to befuddle secondaries but not reach the 2018 bar.
Todd Gurley: 17 rushing TDs
Expect to see a fairly significant drop in this category as well as the 21 TDs Todd Gurley scored overall in 2018. There is simply too much concern about the health of his knee to make anyone believe he can see the same amount of usage going forward. Gurley’s health is a huge concern for the Rams and who will pick up the slack is another issue.
Aaron Donald: 20.5 sacks
To replicate his total of 2018, Aaron Donald would have to stay at a level that was nine sacks higher than in any of his previous four seasons. Hard to believe he can do that again. Though the goal of breaking Michael Strahan’s sack mark of 22.5 in a single season has to be tempting. The Rams’ defensive force will continue to be just that. It’s a mighty task to reach 20.5 in 16 games.
Julio Jones: 1,677 receiving yards
Julio Jones is incredible. Matt Ryan is lucky to have him as a wideout in the Falcons’ offense. Still, trying to average better than 100 receiving yards per game in back-to-back seasons is going to be too much for Jones, who has reached the century mark per game in four of the last five seasons. The stickler here is that in two of those he played less than 16 games. Jones tries to be durable but at 30, Atlanta must try and preserve him for the long run in 2019.
Aaron Rodgers: 2 interceptions
Aaron Rodgers’ interception total has dropped in each of the past four seasons. Granted, he played seven games in 2017. That said, the great Green Bay Packer quarterback has not thrown double-digit picks since 2011. Expect that run to continue under his new coach, Matt LaFleur. However, it would seem next to impossible to only throw two picks again over an entire year. If anyone can do it, though, Rodgers can.
Juju Smith-Schuster: 111 receptions
JuJu Smith-Schuster went from 58 receptions as a rookie to 111 in his second year. The former USC star has incredible potential and with Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell permanently gone from the Steelers’ attack in 2019, there is no reason to believe Smith-Schuster won’t collect more of Ben Roethilisberger’s passes.
Christian McCaffrey: 1,965 total yards
Look out 2,000-yard mark. Christian McCaffrey is going to bust through the barrier. He figures to add to his 1,098 rushing yards in 2018. And, the former Stanford star has the likelihood of breaking four figures in receiving yardage, too. The best is yet to come for the Panthers’ threat.
Travis Kelce: 1,336 receiving yards
Travis Kelce will continue to be one of Patrick Mahomes’ prime targets. In fact, if Tyreek Hill is suspended for any part of the season, Kelce’s work level figures to rise. He caught 103 passes for 1,336 yards in 2018. He was targeted 150 times. Could see the amount of targets rise a bit with the uncertainty of Hill’s status and if that happens, more catches will find their way into Kelce’s hands. An elite tight end.
Saquon Barkley: 352 touches
Given the sad state the New York Giants are in, Saquon Barkley figures to get the ball more often than he did as a rookie. That’s not great news for someone Big Blue is counting on to be a generational running back. Odell Beckham Jr. is gone and Golden Tate cannot fill the void he leaves. Barkley may not carry the ball more than the 261 times he did as a rookie, but expect him to break the century mark in receptions.
Jordan Howard: 935 rushing yards
Jordan Howard was unappreciated in Chicago. He rushed for better than 3,000 yards in his three seasons as a Bear. People will point to his total dropping in each year, with 935 in 2018 being his worst output. He moves to Philadelphia now and look for the workload to lead to increased yardage. A fine running back who will make a wonderful addition to the Eagles.
Nick Chubb: 996 rushing yards
The quick reaction will be to say Kareem Hunt’s eventual presence on the Browns will lead to less work and yardage for Nick Chubb. However, his 996 yards as a rookie were stellar. Chubb got stronger as the season got longer. Expect the former Georgia star to burst through the 1,000-yard mark and have more than 200 carries and double-digit rushing TDs.
Marlon Mack: 908 rushing yards
Expect a big third season in Indianapolis for Marlon Mack. The running back from South Florida showed star potential in rushing for 908 yards in 2018. Andrew Luck knows he has a gem in the backfield and will hand the ball to Mack more often in 2019. Topping the 1,000-yard mark will happen and don’t be shocked to see Mack reach 1,250 yards on the ground.
Tom Brady: 570 pass attempts
This is a dicey one. The great Tom Brady has thrown 570 or more passes in the last seven seasons he has played all 16 games. With the emergence of Sony Michel and absence of Rob Gronkowski, expect to see the Patriots turn a bit more to the ground game. Brady will flirt with the 570 mark, but in the end come up short.
Adrian Peterson: 1,042 rushing yards
Adrian Peterson had around 600 yards rushing total in 2016 and 2017. He turns up in Washington in 2018 and finds the fountain of youth, rushing for 1,042 yards. Can he reach four figures again? Yes, the Redskins have Derrius Guice and Bryce Love. They are banged up and uncertainties. Peterson look to defy Father Time again. Can’t seem him reaching 1,000 yards in will be a challenging year for Jay Gruden & Co.
J.J. and T.J. Watt: 29 combined sacks
The Watts, um, lit up the NFL for 29 sacks in 2018. J.J. had 16 for the Texans and T.J. had 13 for the Steelers. The over looks like a solid play in 2019. Not so much because J.J. will add to his total. More because T.J. is blossoming into a major force for the Steelers and is a good bet to improve on his number.
Khalil Mack: 12.5 sacks
In his second season as a Chicago Bear, expect Khalil Mack to improve on his output of 12.5 sacks in 2018. Mack is a rare force and will only get better. Chicago will miss Vic Fangio’s defensive genius but Mack will continue to lead the Monsters of the Midway.
Philip Rivers: 32 TD passes
This would seem to be an easy one to predict. It is not. Philip Rivers has thrown between 28 and 34 TD passes in every season since 2008. He’s consistent and always within that range. Hence, guessing that he will throw more than the 32 he tossed in 2018 is risky. If Melvin Gordon stays healthy, that should take away some TD passes from the former North Carolina State great. This is one of the dicier over/under to try and figure.
Cam Newton: 488 rushing yards
With Christian McCaffrey becoming a force in the ground game, Cam Newton should not have to risk his body as often. The former Auburn star is 30 and needs to preserve himself if he wants to have a deep run as a Panther or with another team eventually. It is hard to break habits and Newton his used to running. He played 14 games last season and had 488 rushing yards. The guess here is he learns to take it a bit easier on himself.
Kirk Cousins: 70.1 completion percentage
The Minnesota Vikings were a disappointment in 2018. Kirk Cousins signed on with a mega-rich contract and the Purple People barely treaded .500. What is almost lost is Cousins’ stats: 70.1 completion percentage, 30 TDs against only 10 picks. Going to be extremely hard to duplicate those numbers. And the Vikings need to come up with more victories to muzzle the rumblings.
Russell Wilson: 35 TD passes vs 7 INTs
Russell Wilson is a victory machine. Only once in his career have the Seahawks failed to reach double-digit victories in a season. In 2018, Wilson threw 35 TD passes against seven interceptions. Hard to believe he will be able to repeat that 5:1 ratio again, especially with favorite target Doug Wilson retired.
*Le’Veon Bell: 1,291 yards
Le’Veon Bell gets the asterisk because he didn’t play in 2018, holding out on the Pittsburgh Steelers. He is with the New York Jets and duplicating the success in Pittsburgh will not be easy with Gang Green. Could see Bell getting the 321 carries he had with the Steelers in 2017 and 1,291 yards. Figure him to come up with less than the 85 receptions he had with Pittsburgh that season.
Josh Allen: 2,074 yards passing
Josh Allen’s rookie season was disrupted by injury. In the 11 games he started, Allen was 5-6 with 2,0\74 yards and 10 TDs against 12 interceptions. The former Wyoming star is a solid bet to improve on his first season. If he doesn’t, Sean McDemott may be in big trouble.
Jameis Winston: 6-22 as starter in 2 seasons
USAT
Jameis Winston has a new coach in savvy Bruce Arians. If the former Heisman winner from Florida State can’t get it done under Arians’ offensive wisdom, the Bucs are going to have to think about starting over — again. Winston is 6-22 as a starter in his past two seasons. Should he avoid injury and suspension, Winston has a good chance to equal his win total for 2017 and ’18 in 2019.
