REALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolinians who were previously undecided about taking a COVID-19 vaccine are increasingly likely to get the shot, according to a new Elon University Poll, but about a fifth of adults still do not plan to take the vaccine.
"We're not seeing any erosion to speak of in the people who are saying, 'No, don't intend to take the vaccine,'" said Jason Husser, director of the Elon Poll. "Just anecdotally, the people I know who are in that no camp are not changing their minds."
When Elon started polling North Carolinians about their vaccine intentions in October, 33% of people said they planned to take the shot. In January, 45% of people planned to take the vaccine, 12% already had and 24% were on the fence.
This month, 38% of people have been vaccinated and 25% plan to take a shot. That's a 30 percentage point increase from October.
"Typically when we ask people behavioral intention items or public opinion items, it takes decades to see the type of change that we've seen in six months in North Carolina," Husser said.
People who are in the maybe category are largely shifting toward taking the vaccine, Husser added, a trend he expects to continue.
Still, Husser noted, the 20% of people who are staunchly opposed to taking the COVID-19 vaccine and those who lean no could be enough to keep the state from vaccinating the 80% or more that some experts say will be needed to reach herd immunity.
Earlier this week, Gov. Roy Cooper hinted at this problem during a press conference, urging people who have been vaccinated to talk with their family members and friends who do not want a shot.
"We're all going to have to flip it over to make sure that we are encouraging people to get vaccinated, and that's going to be something that we're all going to play a part in," Cooper said.
Husser pointed to education level as a key indicator of whether someone plans to get a vaccine. People with more education are more likely to want a COVID-19 vaccine.
Among people without a bachelor's degree, 56% either plan to be or have been vaccinated, while 21% aren't sure and 24% say they will not be vaccinated. Among people with a bachelor's degree, 79% either plan to be or have been vaccinated, 12% aren't sure and 10% say they will not be vaccinated.
"There will be some communities that easily hit vaccine goals and other ones that may never hit them," Husser said.
People identifying as Democrats were the most likely political group to want a COVID-19 vaccine, with 76% either already taking it or planning to do so. In comparison, 54% of Republicans have either taken a vaccine or are planning to, and 57% of people who don't identify with either political party have either gotten a shot or are planning on it.
Republicans and people who don't identify with either political party were much more likely than Democrats to say they will not take a COVID-19 vaccine, with 28% of Republicans and 22% of unaffiliated people saying they don't want a shot compared to 9% of Democrats.
On Wednesday, Cooper and legislative leaders from both parties released a public service announcement urging people to take the vaccine. Rep. Robert Reives, the House Democratic leader, said he is looking forward to hugs, while Senate leader Phil Berger, a Republican, said he hopes to see a baseball game.
The people who told pollsters that they already had been vaccinated reported few problems and were largely pleased with their decision. More than 92% said they were glad they had taken the vaccine; more than 82% said the process was easy or very easy, from making an appointment to actually getting the shot; and 66% or more said they suffered no side effects or that the side effects they did feel caused no more than a minor disruption.
More than 75% of those polled believe the pandemic will ease up somewhat by the July 4 holiday, with 37% thinking life will be "a little better than it has been in the last year," 33.1% thinking things will be a lot better and 7% thinking life will have returned to pre-pandemic conditions.
Cooper said this week that N.C. Department of Health and Human Services officials are consulting with experts and plan to soon release a "forecast" about what people should expect by the Fourth of July. The guidance will be intended to help people better understand what they can do safely and what activities might still pose too much risk for spreading COVID-19.
"I know that as summer approaches, many people are curious about how things will change and what to expect," Cooper said Tuesday.
DHHS' guidance could come as soon as next week, Cooper said.
Husser said he found optimism in those answers, noting that the new "Top Gun" movie is supposed to hit movie theaters on July 4
"If Tom Cruise is selling tickets in person by July 4, then we know that things are returning to a sense of normalcy," Husser said.
