More bad news for the Tories in today's Independent/NOP opinion poll, with the party trailing Labour by 12 points. Conservative support is down from 32% to 30% in the last month, with support for the Liberal Democrats slipping by 3%.
The only gloom the polls can find for the government is that only 55% of people are certain they are going to vote in the general election. That's two points less than in the run up to the last general election, when the 59% turnout was the lowest since 1918.
Apathy is clearly a concern for Labour. Tony Blair spent a lot of his speech on Sunday talking up the threat posed by the Tories and appealing to voters, despite their reservations, to stick with him for the sake of the children, or was that country.
Writing in the Independent, John Curtice points out that Labour voters are "particularly unenthusiastic about going to the polls". Just 59% are certain to vote compared with 64% of Lib Dems and 69% of Tories.
Though he regards Labour's leads as precisely the kind of pre-election "comfort zone" Mr Blair wants, he warns the prime minister that he "may still have work to do to hold on to all of his party's crucial marginal seats".
