The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects more rain in the monsoon months of June-September than its previous estimate in April.
On Tuesday, it said monsoon rains would be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 88 cm. On April 16, it said the rain would be 98% of the LPA. In the agency’s parlance, this still constitutes ‘normal’ rainfall which is anywhere from 96-104% of the LPA.
The agency also said in its update that the rainfall in the northeast would likely see a 5% shortfall whereas over central India, which constitutes the core rainfed agricultural region, there would be a 6% increase over what is usual for the monsoon months. Rainfall over the northwest would be ‘normal’ though this is a wide range from 92-108% of the LPA and that in the southern peninsula 93-107% of its normal. Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over the northeast (<95%) and above normal over central India (>106%), the update noted.
“This year we expect a good monsoon and especially over the core agricultural region,” M. Mohapatra, Director General, IMD, said at a press conference on Tuesday.
Sea surface temperatures
The latest global model forecasts say the sea surface temperatures at the Equatorial Pacific conditions are unlikely to significantly rise. There are also ‘negative’ IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) conditions over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season. Put together, they mean that these larger climate factors are, as of now, unlikely to have a significant influence over the prevailing monsoon. “As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on the Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins,” the statement said.
The monsoon was to have arrived in Kerala on May 31 but the IMD, on May 30, said its advent would be delayed to June 3 because windspeeds and cloud formation over the Kerala coast hadn’t picked up yet.
For the first time, this year, the IMD has issued a forecast for June. “The spatial distribution suggests above normal rainfall probability is likely over most areas of eastern parts of central India, along the planes of the Himalayas and east India. Below normal probability is likely over many areas of northwest India and southern parts of south peninsula and some areas of northeast India,” the forecast noted.
