A student from New Zealand with a passion for statistics has analysed the performance of every player from the 2021 Six Nations and compiled an optimal British and Irish Lions squad.
Carl Jeffries, who lives in Wellington and studies Marketing and Management, sourced his data from the official Six Nations website.
Carl said he was inspired by the film Moneyball, which depicts the story of baseball team Oakland Athletics, who pioneered a purely statistical and highly successful approach to player drafting.
“I know there are some players people don’t feel should be there, but based on the numbers, this is the Lions squad to take on the Springboks,” the 20-year-old said.
Carl’s starting XV contains 6 Scotsmen, 4 Irishmen, 4 Welshmen and just 1 Englishman – Bristol Bears’ Kyle Sinckler.
Sinckler’s stats make him the number-one tighthead prop available to Warren Gatland this summer. He finished this year’s Six Nations having made more metres, carries, clean breaks, passes and offloads than any of his rivals.
Notably, however, the Lion-capped prop also had the highest number of turnovers conceded and in 2019, Gatland described Sinckler as an “emotional timebomb”.
The high number of Scottish players in the squad will also jump out to rugby fans, with Exeter full-back Stuart Hogg starting as captain.
“I love to give justice to the scots; I think they are massively undervalued,” Carl said.
“Stuart Hogg is probably the best full-back in the world who has the captaincy skills.”
Hogg was the highest-rated full-back in every metric Carl used apart from metres gained (2nd), carries (4th) and turnovers won (4th).
Carl’s 41-man squad – 13 Scotsmen, 11 Irishmen, 9 Welshmen, 8 Englishmen
Notable absences from the squad include Owen Farrell, Taulupe Faletau and odds-on Lions’ captain Alun Wyn Jones.
Maro Itoje is relegated to the bench, with Exeter players Jonny Gray and Sam Skinner pairing in the second-row. Gray maintained his 100 percent tackle success during the Six Nations, while Skinner made more metres per game than any other lock – apart from Gray.
England fans may also be surprised to see Elliot Daly making the cut. The long-range kicker, who was berated after this year’s Six Nations, is statistically the second-best fullback available to Gatland, ahead of Liam Williams and Hugo Keenan.
Carl also runs an Instagram page that showcases FIFA-style rugby cards he has created with realistic player stats (rugby_ultimateteam).
The official British and Irish Lions squad will be announced at 12.30pm on Thursday, May 6, and will be live-blogged by South West rugby writer John Evely.
