Good morning. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the dominant figure in Turkish politics for 20 years; after a long and tense vote count last night, his presidency is still on the line. Amid angry claim and counterclaim about manipulation of the numbers, neither Erdoğan nor his main rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu looked likely to reach the 50% threshold for outright victory. If that is confirmed by the final figures, they will go to a run-off in two weeks’ time.
The election is widely seen as the most important in the world this year – as a fight for the future of Turkish democracy, a referendum on a strongman populist leader, and a possible shift in Turkey’s influential role on the world stage. In today’s newsletter, Ruth Michaelson in Istanbul explains why the race has gone down to the wire, and what might happen next. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Immigration | Thousands of Britons should be trained to drive trucks, work in the meat industry and gather crops rather than filling vacancies with foreign workers, Suella Braverman will tell Conservative activists on Monday. With the government bracing for a record increase in net migration figures later this month, the home secretary’s intervention will be seen as a rebuff to cabinet calls for an easing of visa rules.
Pakistan | Former prime minister Imran Khan escalated his criticism of Pakistan’s powerful military after he accused the head of the army of harbouring a “personal grudge” against him and ordering his arrest and a crackdown on his party. “It is personal. It’s got nothing to do with national interest,” Khan told the Guardian in an interview at his home in Lahore.
Health | The confidentiality of NHS medical records has been thrown into doubt after a hospital doctor accessed highly sensitive information about a woman who had started dating her ex-boyfriend, despite not being involved in her care. The case has prompted warnings that any doctor in England could abuse their privileged access to private medical records.
Thailand | Thailand’s opposition parties secured by far the largest number of votes in national elections on Sunday, delivering a damning verdict to the military-backed government that has ruled the country for nearly a decade. Despite being far out in front, they could still struggle to form government due to parliamentary rules skewed in the military’s favour.
Baftas | The actor Meera Syal called for greater diversity across television as she accepted her Bafta lifetime achievement award, the TV industry’s highest accolade. Other big winners included I Am Ruth and its star Kate Winslet, Bad Sisters, and The Traitors, while Prof David Olusoga was given a Bafta special award for documentaries examining black British history and the legacy of slavery.
In depth: ‘This is what it looks like when you try to unseat a wannabe autocrat through democratic means’
Parliamentary and presidential elections took place in Turkey yesterday. In the 600 seat parliament, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party [AKP] looks like it has lost around 28 seats – its worst result in 20 years - but despite expectations of an opposition win, could still be able to form a majority with the support of three other parties.
In the presidential vote, Turkey’s Supreme Election Council has Erdoğan on 49.49% and Kılıçdaroğlu on 44.79%. A third candidate, the ultranationalist Sinan Oğan, took a vital 5% that appears to have kept both Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdoğan from getting over the 50% line.
“The mood here is tense,” said Ruth Michaelson, who was speaking from the Istanbul headquarters of Kılıçdaroğlu’s party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), where the sound of “what feels like a million TVs” tuned to news channels was audible in the background. “Everyone is glued to the screens and their phones for whatever information they can find.”
The day was characterised by controversy over different figures being released by two leading news agencies, and efforts by both sides to frame them to their own advantage. Because the AKP contested every ballot box won by the opposition, they were not added to the televised total, and Kılıçdaroğlu accused the AKP of “using objections to block the system”.
“Both sides have been making TV appearances to tell their stories, and whatever the final numbers, it seems like they will be contested by both sides,” Ruth said. “We are seeing what it looks like when you try to unseat a wannabe autocrat through democratic means.”
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Why is the election so important?
The elections are crucial to the future of Turkey’s battered economy – but also as a marker of the state of democracy in an era of strongman leaders in fragile democracies around the world.
“When we look at elections in Brazil or in India, there are important countries very visibly struggling with their democratic futures,” Ruth said. “And Turkey is a major player on the world stage – it’s a member of Nato, and it’s a fundamental, if flawed, partner for the west in dealing with Russia. It is a key player in the US relationship with Syria. So whether the remnants of a functioning democracy here can be used to push back against the ways Erdoğan has expanded his power has some very big ramifications.”
The election has also been presented as a last chance to stop Erdoğan turning the country into a full-blown autocracy. “It feels like Turkey has had a lot of last chances,” Ruth said. “But I think there’s a fair argument it’s true this time. The opposition is trying something totally different, bringing together a broad base of people with different views but who believe this man should not be running the country any more. The earthquake response has really ignited a lot of discontent.” That is a rare confluence of events that made a challenge plausible – but also suggests how easily it could break apart.
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Why was it so close?
While Erdoğan grip on the levers of power has brought Turkey close to autocracy, he has made serious economic missteps recently (£). He has increased his control of the theoretically independent central bank and steadfastly refused to increase interest rates despite inflation that officially touched 80% last year and which independent analysts say could in reality have surpassed 100%. Ordinary Turkish people are far poorer and more uncertain of their futures as a result.
The government response to the devastating recent earthquake was widely viewed as inadequate. In February, Erdoğan made the tone-deaf comment that “whatever happens, happens, this is part of fate’s plan”. “It highlighted the flaws and corruption in the construction industry which he empowered as the backbone of his rule, so that you felt the presence of the state through airports or new roads far from Istanbul or Ankara,” Ruth said. “And the response has been wholly inefficient. Many people died who should not have died.”
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Who is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu?
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, a dour former accountant and bureaucrat and the longtime head of the CHP, was not a universally popular choice to stand among the opposition. “This race is arguably tighter than it could have been if the opposition had selected a different presidential candidate,” Ruth said.
A social democrat, Kılıçdaroğlu (pictured above) is at the head of a coalition that includes nationalists who are only supporting him because of their degree of desperation to unseat Erdoğan. He has promised to stand down after a single term after instituting more conventional economic policies and restoring full parliamentary democracy.
“The task they would face to fix the economy and restore full parliamentary democracy is daunting,” Ruth said. “They hold very different views on a whole range of issues. It will be very difficult for them to stay united.”
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Was the election fair?
“We weren’t seeing a lot of concerns about vote integrity while people were voting,” Ruth said. “But it’s the speed of the count, and how that information has been put out to the public, that’s been contested. The opposition claims ballot boxes were withheld in areas where they had majorities, and that the count has been weighted to give figures for areas that support Erdogan and the AKP first, and then slow-walking and contesting the opposition’s count.”
At the same time, and even though Erdoğan is said to have influence over the election authorities, it’s important to say that Turkey is not an autocracy. “When people go to the ballot box, their votes are still counted,” Ruth said. “It’s just that it occurs within an environment where one side has a thumb on the scale.”
There are many ways Erdoğan does that. He has liberally disbursed incentives to voters to back him again this time, hiking government workers pay by 45% (£) five days before the election, reducing electricity prices, and giving people a free month of natural gas supplies. Meanwhile, the Turkish media, largely controlled by his allies, has given him much more airtime than Kılıçdaroğlu: one study found that in April he got 32 hours on state radio and TV against 32 minutes for his rival.
Another important point in such a tight election: the rules for displaced voters from earthquake zones. “The government resisted a rule change that would have allowed people to change their vote to where they were displaced to,” Ruth said. “Those voters are more likely to oppose Erdoğan.”
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How should we expect the likely run-off to go?
The question of which side is able to successfully spin a story about its own success yesterday – and thereby either create a sense of momentum for the opposition or stymie it – will be central to the run-off. “The fight over the interpretation of the vote is really a symbol of how divided the country is,” Ruth said. “It’s a question of whether Kılıçdaroğlu can plausibly say: ‘Just a little further, we can do this.’”
One big question is where the votes for the ultranationalist third place candidate Sinan Oğan will go. “Nationalism is the thread that runs through all sides here,” Ruth said. “Oğan is basically a protest vote. It’s possible his voters would be accepting of Kılıçdaroğlu because there are nationalists in his coalition.” In a remarkably coherent 4am voice note, she added: “Oğan is being interviewed on the hour by different channels to say what he wants in a run-off. He is already the kingmaker.”
But that leaves Kılıçdaroğlu in a bind. “Oğan is basically Turkey’s Nigel Farage, and I’m not sure who I’m being more unkind to with that comparison. Kılıçdaroğlu’s campaign has been leaning increasingly left to get support from the Kurds – which infuriates the nationalists.”
He has defended the rights of the marginalised Kurdish minority, even as Erdoğan has sought to tie him to an insurgency waged by Kurdish militants. “Now Kılıçdaroğlu needs to lean right, and in practice that probably means disavowing the Kurds – even though they have feted and welcomed him.”
Even if Erdoğan goes, the shadow he casts over the country’s future is inescapable, Ruth said. “It is difficult for anyone to imagine the country without him,” she said. “The plan the opposition has outlined is really about how to dismantle what he has spent 20 years building. Their vision for life after Erdoğan is, fundamentally, governed by him.”
What else we’ve been reading
Saturday magazine published a brilliant extract from a new book by Harriet Gibsone (above) about her life as an “inquisitive creep” preoccupied with other people’s online lives. “My relationship with the internet is an infidelity,” she writes: “A remorseless, ongoing affair with the fringes of humanity, while I am in a stable relationship with all of my friends and relatives.” Archie
Steven Greenhouse spoke to teachers in Florida about the increasingly hostile laws championed by Governor Ron DeSantis, that have left them feeling more disrespected, confused, unappreciated and under attack than ever before. Nimo
The dire state of Britain’s seaside towns was an early indicator of the Brexit vote, writes John Harris – but after a period of political fixation, the same towns “have once again fallen back to the political margins”. Archie
Emine Saner’s interview with Mara Wilson, one of the most recognisable child stars of the 90s, is a fascinating insight into how Hollywood changed her life, dealing with grief, and fame and her transition into writing. Nimo
ICYMI: Amy Chozick’s New York Times (£) profile of convicted fraudster Elizabeth Holmes generated a lot of online discourse. Is Holmes using the media to rehabilitate her image? Or is this a nuanced exploration of one of the most notorious grifters of the last two decades? Whatever your thoughts, it’s an interesting read. Nimo
Sport
Football | A record crowd of 77,390 witnessed Chelsea win the women’s FA Cup for a third successive time at a sold-out Wembley stadium. Chelsea’s striker Sam Kerr (holding the trophy above) put the team ahead in the second half against Manchester United, clinching them a 1-0 victory.
Football | Manchester City are closing in on the Premier League title after their 3-0 victory against Everton at Goodison Park. Arsenal fell to a 3-0 defeat against Brighton, leaving their hopes of winning the league in tatters and the defending champions one win away from claiming the title.
Rugby | George Ford led Sale Sharks to a 21-13 victory over Leicester in the Premiership semi-final. The result sets up a final against Saracens and means that Leicester will not defend the title they won last year.
The front pages
Home secretary, Suella Braverman, appears across the front pages on Monday. The Guardian says “Braverman rejects Tory calls to ease visa rules”. The Telegraph says “Braverman pushes PM to deliver on migrants”, while the i says “Sunak under pressure to get ‘tougher’ on migrants”. The Times reports on comments from the home secretary saying migration must be cut under the headline: “Britons will forget how to work, says Braverman”.
The Financial Times reports “G7 and EU to heap pressure on Russia with ban on reopening of gas pipelines”. The Mail says “Starmer to use EU citizen to ‘rig’ polls”. The Mirror carries a picture of Kevin Sinfield carrying Rob Burrow over the line at the Leeds marathon with “Brothers in arms”. Finally the Sun has the latest on an alleged feud at This Morning, reporting “Furious Phil calls in lawyer”.
Today in Focus
Is the UK in the grip of ‘greedflation’?
Prices in the UK are continuing to rise on everything from groceries to energy bills and mortgage costs. Meanwhile, some companies are reporting record profits. Richard Partington reports
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Bernadine Swale thought her 60s would mean travelling with her partner, but after her marriage of 36 years ended when she was 57, she knew she would have to revise her plans. But her retirement has not been as lonely as she first thought it would be – it has been over a decade since her divorce and now Swale spends her time as a globe-trotting pet-sitter.
Her new vocation has taken her from London to New York to Tokyo and New Zealand, experiencing the world in a way that she never has before. Her life has become filled with spontaneity and adventure, so much so that she has only spent 23 nights in her own bed in the last year: “I absolutely love my life,” she says. “I have the best retirement there ever was.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
