Good morning, and happy new year. As Ukrainian soldiers in trenches on the northern frontline celebrated with a feast in their subterranean kitchen, Moscow was signalling its intentions for 2023: wave after wave of drone attacks on Kyiv infrastructure that extended into the early hours of Monday morning.
In other words, the beginning of 2023 looks a lot like 2022, when cities and villages were devastated, and millions of Ukrainians left to find refuge in neighbouring countries. The UN has said Russia’s soldiers have committed war crimes, with investigators reporting cases of horrific sexual violence, executions and torture against civilians. The war has triggered a global energy crisis and supply chain problems that have halted post-pandemic recovery in many poorer countries.
Despite all that damage and violence, there is no clear end in sight. I spoke to Guardian foreign correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison about the fallout of the last 11 months of war in Europe. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
NHS | Strikes could continue for months amid anger at government plans to raise staff salaries by only 2% next year, health service bosses have warned. Meanwhile, a senior healthcare official said as many as 500 people could be dying a week because of seasonal delays to emergency care.
Brazil | A tearful Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vowed to haul Brazil out of Jair Bolsonaro’s era of “darkness, uncertainty and great suffering” after being sworn in as president. Huge crowds of ecstatic Lula supporters flooded the streets of Brasília to celebrate his inauguration.
Retail | Nearly 50 shops shut down on average each day in 2022, new analysis from the Centre for Retail Reesearch has found, with a total of 17,145 closing - a rise of almost 50% on the previous year. The BRC said the closures were mostly to do with “rationalisation” and reducing costs rather than company failure.
Social media | Three in four children as young as 12 dislike their bodies and are embarrassed by the way they look, according to a major new study which warns that social media represents a significant health risk for young people.
Jeremy Renner | The Hawkeye actor Jeremy Renner is in critical but stable condition after an accident while plowing snow on the weekend, a spokesperson for the actor said. Renner was reportedly airlifted to hospital after what the spokesperson called a “weather-related accident”.
In depth: ‘This wasn’t as easy as the Russians thought it would be’
Even though the British and US governments had issued multiple warnings about Russia’s escalating aggression towards Ukraine, there was still a hefty amount of scepticism this time last year about whether there would be an all-out war, with suggestions that Putin could be bluffing or trying to pressure countries into doing what he wanted. When it was clear that some kind of military operation would happen, many thought that the invasion would be confined to the Donbas, with a subsequent move to eastern Ukraine.
But these predictions were proved wrong on 24 February when Russian forces began attacking Ukraine from three sides. As Russia had the element of surprise on its side, the assault began quickly, with the military using missile attacks, long-range artillery, tanks and air strikes. But, since then, things have not gone to plan for Putin.
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Key turning points
Russian officials predicted a swift win: Russia’s military outsized that of Ukraine and was supposed to steamroll through the country. “Russians came with parade uniforms – they really thought it was going to be a matter of a few days,” Emma says. The idea was that the Ukrainian population would either accept their fate as a Russian colony or perhaps even welcome it, with the Kremlin installing its own puppet government with relative ease. And it wasn’t just Russia that thought this: US intelligence agencies predicted that Kyiv could fall within days of the invasion. But things didn’t pan out that way.
“‘[Those early days] were perhaps the first turning point, when Zelenskiy didn’t run and Kyiv didn’t immediately fall,” Emma adds. “It became clear that this wasn’t going to be as easy as the Russians thought it would be.”
Not only did the capital not fall straight away, Zelenskiy was able to keep hold of it which proved to be crucial strategically. “This allowed the government to return and in terms of morale and propaganda, they have protected their capital and stopped Russia from setting up a puppet government,” Emma explains. Zelenskiy was also able to use this victory as leverage to get more support, both financially and militarily, from western allies.
And Ukraine’s most recent victories show that this was a worthwhile investment. Their offensive in the autumn, which liberated many parts of the country and caught Russia off guard, moved the war out of the period of grinding attrition and put Ukraine on the front foot. The liberation of Kherson was another turning point. “It was the only major city that the Russians had taken, so that win had cleared them out of their last stronghold on the west side,” Emma says. “That was a geographic strategic morale landmark, even if conditions in Kherson are still very difficult.”
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Global alliances
This war was always going to be a global one that could reconfigure the international order. “The war asks, how much are we willing to tolerate the unchecked and aggressive use of force, particularly across national boundaries by bigger powers,” Emma says. Russia has committed outward acts of aggression for years, in the Donbas in Ukraine, as well as Syria, Georgia and Chechnya. Had there been some kind of western response to any of these catastrophes, Emma explains, “we might not be in the position that we’re in now”. The US has been rethinking its relationship with allies and adversaries – connecting Washington to Europe more closely than it has been in years – and reconsidering its role in the democratic world after its messy and chaotic exit from Afghanistan. Inevitably this will mean serious reflection at its (ongoing) history of propping up dictators and turning a blind eye to human rights abuses in the name of diplomacy.
On the flip side, Russia’s relationship with China has always been “uneasy”, says Emma, primarily being an alliance of convenience that could turn sour at any moment. “Beijing is wary of everything from the impact on energy prices to the war bringing huge instability into the world order,” Emma says. However, the west being entangled in challenging, costly situations is in the interest of China. “I wouldn’t necessarily say Beijing is unhappy about the situation and they’re certainly not trying to pressure or cut off Russia,” she adds. There is also the question of Taiwan – while the situation is not identical, China’s regime will be watching the fallout of this invasion closely to make sure they do not make the same mistakes there.
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What’s next?
Despite all their wins, there is no clear end to the conflict, and Putin has made it clear that Russia has no intention of retreating. At the end of last year, he made a rare trip to Belarus, to get more military support from Lukashenko and to form a “single defence space” in the region, in exchange with help for the country’s debilitated economy.
“One thing Russia definitely has is manpower,” Emma says. “And the Ukrainians are very concerned that Putin is not only going to launch a new offensive, but that he might even try to come back to Kyiv from Belarus, to try another all-out assault on the capital.” Putin’s willingness to escalate and target civilian infrastructure, shows that his all or nothing attitude has not abated. And, ultimately, Russia can keep manufacturing weapons and training soldiers. “The sanctions are starting to bite, but it still has a source of income,” Emma says.
Russia has banked almost everything on winning over the past year, and the Kremlin’s possession of nuclear arsenal means no one can force it to stand down. For the war to truly end and for peace to be stable, there has to be some change in Moscow. Anything can happen: Chinese military aid could help Russia’s efforts, Belarus’s intervention could shift battlefield momentum to their side, or any number of domestic events could make western aid slow down.
However, Putin pinning his hopes on these fairly unlikely scenarios indicates that Russia is fighting a losing battle.
What else we’ve been reading
If, like me, you’re impatient for what 2023 has in store, then you’re in luck. From culture to sport to technology, 10 experts lay out what to expect. Nimo
Lucy Mangan gives the return of Sally Wainwright’s “masterwork” Happy Valley five stars: “The warp and weft of lives, of life, is as expertly woven as ever”. Archie
Now that Christmas is over, Miranda Bryant helpfully explains the most sustainable ways to repurpose your Christmas tree over the next weeks. Nimo
Devi Sridhar is chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, and now she’s also a personal trainer. She explains why that’s central to her vision of how she can do the most good. Archie
The hyper-curated, overly perfected aesthetic is officially out. As the world descends into further chaos, writes Morwenna Ferrier, fashion is becoming more and more deranged. So, that outfit that’s been wallowing in your closet because it’s a bit too weird? It’s time to bring it out. Nimo
Sport
Premier League | Aston Villa beat an error-strewn Spurs side 2-0 thanks to goals from Emiliano Buendía (above) and Douglas Luiz. Meanwhile, a second-half equaliser from Serge Aurier secured a precious point for Nottingham Forest against Chelsea after Raheem Sterling’s opener.
Tennis | Victory for Dan Evans against Spain’s Albert Ramos-Viñolas steered Great Britain into the quarter-finals of the United Cup in Sydney. Evans’ win gave his side an unassailable lead in the inaugural mixed team event.
Darts | World No 1 Gerwyn Price wore ear defenders in an attempt to block out the raucous Alexander Palace crowd - but crashed out of the PDC world championships in the quarter-finals anyway. Price said afterwards that he might never play in the prestigious tournament again.
Today in Focus
Can I tell you a secret? Episode seven: an update
Revisited: Guardian producer Lucy Hough and reporter Matthew Weaver give an update on the outcome of Matthew Hardy’s appeal.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
Sign up for Inside Saturday to see more of Edith Pritchett’s cartoons, the best Saturday magazine content and an exclusive look behind the scenes
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
In the US there are more than 2,500 community-supported agriculture (CSA) programs – customers make regular payments to schemes in return for bundles of freshly harvested produce. While this sounds like many food subscription services, the price of the food from CSA programs is determined on a sliding scale of income. If a customer is renting or has a high amount of debt, they pay less, with the customers who earn more subsidising those on the lower end of the programme.
One of the programmes in upstate New York, Rock Steady, aims to reduce food inequality, while helping to support farmers who are struggling to keep themselves afloat. Communities can be formed through these programs by “investing in the risk or reward of local agriculture”, says Colleen Dixon, a director at Zenger Farm in Portland.
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