Good morning. A few decades ago, it was pretty obvious who was in a far-right group. Maybe they had a skinhead, an 88 tattoo or were part of the National Front. Most likely, they knew as well as anyone that their own views were fringe. No more.
Last year, people took to the streets in Southport, setting a mosque, a Citizen’s Advice Bureau and a police van (among other things) on fire and smashing the windows of a hotel housing asylum seekers. Some of those arrested had been active on Facebook groups run by ordinary members of the public: people happy to post what once would have been viewed as extreme thoughts openly on Facebook.
This sort of merging of extremism with everyday life is snowballing. During Conservative party conference, the Guardian revealed one of the most senior Tories had been recorded admitting dismay at not seeing enough white faces in a town – and when the leader of the party was asked about it, she defended him. And not long ago, whether Rishi Sunak was truly “English” became a hot topic thanks to those extreme views being aired by those in discussion with former Spectator editor Fraser Nelson and Michael Gove.
How did views once thought of as far-right become a part of mainstream debate? I asked Pamela Duncan, data projects editor at the Guardian, who has spent a year studying this exact phenomenon. Our discussion is after the headlines.
Five big stories
Gaza | Authorities in Israel and Gaza are preparing for the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, which is the deadline stipulated in the ceasefire deal that could end the two-year war in Gaza. Donald Trump will be in Israel to speak at the Knesset before flying on to a summit in Egypt.
Prince Andrew | Prince Andrew told Jeffrey Epstein ‘we’re in this together’ in a 2011 email after a picture of him with his arm around a teenage Virginia Giuffre was first published
Politics | The much-criticised watchdog that scrutinises the jobs UK ministers can take after leaving office will be formally scrapped as part of a wider shake-up of the ethics structure in government. Described as fundamentally toothless by critics, its functions will be taken over by two existing regulators.
Young people | The world faces “an emerging crisis” of higher death rates among teenagers and young adults across the world, according to a new major study.
Tony Blair | The former UK prime minister Tony Blair appears to have won the endorsement of the Palestinian Authority to be involved in the reconstruction of Gaza, after an exploratory meeting in Jordan.
In depth: ‘There is a validation when it’s put in the mouths of more serious politicians’
After the Southport riots last year, when around two dozen people were arrested due to social media posts relating to them, Pamela sat down with a question: in what sort of online culture were those people immersed?
“Our mentality was, if those comments had reached a criminal bar … what sort of environment were they participating in where could these things could be said?” she said.
The data team found the public-facing Facebook profiles of those charged, and 16 different groups in their broader network, interlinked via common admins and moderators running them. They examined the posts of those groups, and found that many, knowingly or not, were interacting with content which one expert said “echoed fascist methods used throughout history”.
There was a wide range of activity on the groups but most worrying were posts that followed a pattern of dehumanisation and demonisation of migrants – accounting for one-in-10 posts captured by the Guardian – Muslims and non-white people – who were often portrayed as dangerous, deceitful, criminal or culturally incompatible with UK life.
Some posts used subtle insinuations about “military-aged men” and “grooming gangs” – as a sort of coded language for the inherent threat that immigrants pose. Others simply labelled all immigrants as “illegals” or an “invasion”. Some were plain racist. Other key themes emerged: of a deep distrust in the government and its institutions, misinformation and conspiracy theories, many containing far-right tropes as well as evidence of white nativism.
Now Pamela says she has seen similar language being used by mainstream politicians.
“I’ve been watching a lot of what’s coming out of the [party] conferences in the past few weeks, and what’s struck me has been that the kind of rhetoric we are seeing in these groups is now being reflected in mainstream speeches,” says Pamela.
Most obvious are the comments coming out of the Reform conference – in particular, Pamela points to people like Zia Yusuf, who spoke about the “invasion of our country” by “tens of thousands of fighting aged males”.
Shocking, perhaps, but also maybe what to expect of Reform. What’s more astonishing is how it has bled into the discourse within the Conservative party recently.
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No white faces
I almost choked on my cornflakes on Tuesday morning, listening to Kemi Badenoch respond to comments that Robert Jenrick, the shadow secretary for justice, made about Handsworth at a dinner in the West Midlands. He compared the area to a slum, and stated he “hadn’t seen another white face” in the 90 minutes he was there, adding: “that’s not the country I want to live in”.
Appearing on Radio 4’s Today Programme, Badenoch first suggested the Guardian’s recording could have been taken out of context, adding: “What really worries me is that there are a lot of people in Birmingham who are not integrating.” Pressed on whether the number of white people you see in an area is a good measure of integration, Badenoch said: “I’m making a far more important point … What I don’t want is for us to not say anything because everybody’s scared about offending someone else, and then we end up having huge scandals like the grooming scandal where I remember a parent telling me that she was arrested because the police said she was racist because she pointed out that her child had gotten into a car with Asian men.”
I asked Pamela whether this sort of rhetoric chimes with what she’s seen posted on far-right Facebook groups.
“This idea of grooming gangs, military aged men – these are the new dog whistles, and they are the tell tale signs,” she said.
Another thing the team found was how these Facebook groups drove anti-establishment ideas, and experts said that this language ultimately ends up benefiting Reform. That mistrust of institutions grew into something more insidious in the wake of the riots: with people posting in support of the Southport rioters, and taking issue with people being jailed for online offences.
In her closing speech at party conference, Badenoch also seemed to take offence at the law being used against people who have said illegal things online: “Hundreds of thousands of police hours are wasted every year on non-crime hate incidents and form filling officers chasing tweets instead of thieves,” she said.
Could the Tories be seeking to benefit from the same anti-establishment rhetoric that Reform has, now that they’re no longer in power? Judging intent is always hard, says Pamela, but the signals are clear. She points to Jenrick doing a bit with a periwig at conference, and talking about supposed links between judges who support open borders and their rulings.
“I was really shocked by Jenrick taking out the wig and undermining how judges are appointed, talking about two-tier sentencing rules and guidelines. That’s something that we saw reflected in our research as well,” Pamela says.
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Illusory effect
One of the problems with the way far-right rhetoric has spread on social media is that many people – faced with the same information again and again – start to think “if I’ve seen it so many times, it must be true”.
But considering the amount of misinformation there is online, compounded with the widespread failure of social media companies to moderate this sort of content on their platforms, the danger is that people increasingly live in worlds where they believe fringe, often verifiably false views are more popular than they are. As Prof Sander van der Linden, an expert in the impact of conspiracy and misinformation and its connection to extremism put it in our reporting: “You may be able to find two people in your neighbourhood who feel the same way, but now you can connect with thousands of individuals who feel the same way as you in a matter of seconds, which leads to a misperception about what the consensus is in society.”
But what is the impact when similar rhetoric comes from the leaders of mainstream parties?
“It definitely feeds into the normalisation of this language,” says Pamela. “There is a validation when it’s put in the mouths of more serious politicians. They are getting airtime, and their quotes will be clipped and posted, put on television and will be heard, potentially, by millions.”
She adds that it’s not just Reform – with their references to “invasions” of migrants during party conference – that are guilty of this.
“We saw it even with Keir Starmer, with his speech on us becoming a nation of strangers not so long ago,” she says. The prime minister may now say he regrets those words, but “we should not forget that he said them,” says Pamela.
“The breadth of the problem seems so great, and nobody seems to be hitting the brakes on it,” she continues. “It just seems to be getting worse and worse.”
What else we’ve been reading
Today’s “A new start after 60”, about a transformational Autism diagnosis is a nice way to start a Monday morning. It also features an extremely sweet sounding rescue dog called Petunia. Poppy
Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal (pictured above), has swiftly become one of the most influential tech billionaires – his company Palantir has deals with everyone from the Pentagon to the NHS – and he has some … interesting views on everything from the antichrist (possibly Greta Thunberg) to Succession. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
John Harris’s piece on the closure of youth centres made me wonder how we became the kind of country that loves to hate young people so much. Poppy
If, like me, you’ve spent the weekend herding uncooperative children around as you count down the hours until school starts again, these parenting hacks will prove invaluable – “golden time” before bed is a particularly nice idea. Toby
I loved Carys Afoko yesterday on how addictive Vinted is, and how it ultimately made her cheap. Poppy
Sport
Football | A narrow 2-1 victory over Belarus was enough for an unimpressive Scotland to edge closer to World Cup qualification. Scott McTominay, pictured above, scored the crucial goal.
Cricket | Australia completed a record women’s one-day international chase as Alyssa Healy’s commanding 142 runs powered the defending champions to a three-wicket win over India.
Football | Liverpool remain without a point in the Women’s Super League, as Manchester City defeated them 2-1 at Anfield.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Hostages set for freedom in key step to end Gaza war”. The Times has “Hopes and prayers as hostages set for release”, while the i looks ahead with “Historic summit to agree Gaza peace deal – as Israeli hostages set for freedom”. The Mirror describes it as “Hope amid the chaos” and the Mail simply goes with “Hostages – and world – await day of destiny”.
The Financial Times reports “Wall St investment bank revenues set to top $9bn as Trump effect bears fruit”. The Telegraph leads with “Chinese debt trap threat to Britain”. Finally the Sun has “Rashford’s £15m nightmare over dream home”.
Today in Focus
The Palestinian and Israeli kids trying to be friends
Today in Focus producer Natalie Ktena heads to a peace camp in Cyprus that aims to bring together children from Israel and the West Bank.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
The news of Diane Keaton’s death was anything but good – but reading the beautiful obituary, the outpouring of appreciation, and flicking through the many, many stunning looks she sported during her life and career offered a moment to appreciate a truly once in a generation talent. That she only won one Oscar in a career spanning six decades is testament only to how often the Academy misses the mark. If you need proof the world’s not all bad, simply turn on Annie Hall, Father of the Bride or Reds and revel in a true master at work.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
