Monaco Grand Prix: 5 things to watch out for

Is Red Bull’s progress real after the Imola win?

After Max Verstappen’s surprise victory at Imola, the biggest question for the rest of this triple-header is whether Red Bull's improvements were track-specific – or if the team is now in a position to challenge McLaren on a regular basis. Linked to that: was Red Bull surprisingly quick in Italy, or was McLaren surprisingly slow on Sunday?

The papaya team insists it wasn’t affected by the two technical directives issued by the FIA ahead of the Emilia-Romagna GP, and Verstappen remained cautious too. After the race, the Dutchman pointed to a pattern: Red Bull has been competitive on tracks with many high-speed corners (Suzuka, Jeddah, and Imola), but has struggled more on circuits where low-speed performance is crucial (Bahrain and Miami).

Monaco is the ultimate low-speed track on the F1 calendar, so Red Bull anticipates a tough weekend in the principality. That’s even more the case given that kerb-riding and handling over bumps haven’t been Red Bull’s strong points in recent years, to put it mildly. It likely means the Monaco Grand Prix will be a weekend of damage limitation – although rain in qualifying could change things for Verstappen. After that, Barcelona will be the real test on a more representative track, with tyre degradation and the FIA’s clampdown on flexi-wings as key factors.

– Ronald Vording

Norris needs a strong qualifying

Lando Norris is clearly struggling this year, no question about that. And, as always, he's the first to admit it. He's underdelivering on the promise he showed ahead of the season - and clearly needs to do better. Yet, heading into Monaco, he's just 13 points behind his team-mate, championship leader Oscar Piastri.

Lando Norris, McLaren (Photo by: Steven Tee / LAT Images via Getty Images)

There have been a couple of unnecessary mistakes this year – the Q3 crash in Jeddah being the main one – but it’s mostly his one-lap pace that’s let him down.

"Last year, this was my biggest... in my whole career, qualifying has been my biggest strength by a long way. This year, it's just not coming my way," he said in Imola.

He added: "I think we understand some reasons why."

The quicker Norris can turn that understanding into solutions, the easier things will become. In Imola, he got away with P4 in qualifying – thanks in part to some luck with the timing of the safety car – and finished second, arguably the best possible result for McLaren. But relying on safety car timing isn’t a strategy for a championship contender. Norris must start qualifying better.

– Oleg Karpov

Tsunoda under pressure

Yuki Tsunoda urgently needs to start performing like a Red Bull driver. Five grands prix have passed since the Japanese driver left Racing Bulls, and he has yet to deliver a standout performance for the Milton Keynes-based squad.

He didn’t help his cause by crashing in Q1 during qualifying for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix – an error he called “stupid”. While Tsunoda recovered well from a pitlane start to finish tenth on Sunday in Imola, and he continues to enjoy Helmut Marko’s support – likely because there’s no one else ready to take his place – that won’t last forever.

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing (Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool)

Qualifying has been his biggest weakness since moving to the RB21, with an average deficit of 0.864s to Max Verstappen and just two top-10 starts. His races have been slightly better, but his best result remains ninth in Bahrain.

The good news: Monaco is a chance for redemption. Tsunoda has improved in qualifying every year since his first outing in the principality, achieved eighth in both qualifying and the race last year, and scored his first Monaco points. If he can build on that, it will be a step forward.

– Federico Faturos

Can Ferrari sort qualifying?

In Imola, a favourable race scenario masked Ferrari’s qualifying weakness. But will that work in Monaco? Probably not. This weekend brings a new tyre regulation, adding another variable – yet one truth remains: only those who qualify well on Saturday have a real shot on Sunday.

For Ferrari, this means: if they don’t solve their qualifying issues, it will show in the results – unlike in Imola – and at one of the most prestigious races of the year. And then, team principal Frédéric Vasseur may no longer be able to deny that the team is under real pressure.

Should the planned updates for Barcelona also fall short, Ferrari could find itself in not just a technical, but a full-blown sporting crisis – just as Lewis Hamilton suggested when he said the rest of the season could be “painful” for Ferrari.

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari (Photo by: Peter Fox / Getty Images)

The next few weeks will show whether Hamilton was right or if Ferrari can turn things around. But in its current state, the legendary team simply cannot afford a Monaco failure – and hoping for a lucky race isn’t in line with its self-image.

– Stefan Ehlen

Will two-stop rule work?

Last year’s Monaco Grand Prix wasn't exciting, to say the least – which prompted a response from F1 leadership. This year, Monaco will host the first-ever championship race with two mandatory tyre changes. Since overtaking is nearly impossible in the principality, it’s seen as one of the only ways to spice up Sunday.

How it plays out remains to be seen. Will teams explore different strategies? Will it reduce the importance of qualifying? Will it make the show better?

Right now, there are more questions than answers.

– Oleg Karpov