Outside of unlikely and ultimately doomed fairy-tale finishes by Wests Tigers and Canberra Raiders, the NRL’s top eight has been set for the last month. It’s been that sort of year: haves and have-nots, goodies and baddies, yin and yang. It’s largely been cut and dried: the best eight and the next eight.
Yet in the last four rounds, as contenders jockey, fret and, yes, choke, the competition has been turned on its head. The lesser sides are playing with freedom and for fun. Tipping winners has been like Plucka Duck.
At this time of year, momentum is key. And so is luck, stability and confidence. It’s largely been the bottom eight sides with these things, while top eight sides – with notable exceptions – are limping on in.
The Raiders have beaten the Roosters and Rabbitohs over the past two weeks. The Bulldogs towelled up the Dragons a week after knocking over the Warriors. Gold Coast Titans ran Melbourne Storm close. Newcastle Knights beat the Panthers last week and without Kalyn Ponga were in the match against Cronulla for 70 minutes.
The Warriors have been the fringe team for most of the season, the chokers-in-waiting. Yet on Friday night in Auckland they despatched the faltering Panthers. The Warriors are the wild card – they could be anything or anybody.
The Dragons’ late-season fade out has become cliche, a self-fulfilling prophecy. The hard-boned belters who went into the Origin period have emerged from it wide-eyed and fragile, and extremely gettable. The Bulldogs were all over them from the outset, and would have led 24-0 at the break if not for a call by the video referee.
Brett and Josh Morris were brilliant and hard. They chased, ran and tackled, like two of the same person. Both men scored tries and saved several – such fine, total footballers.
Winger Reimis Smith scored a hat-trick of tries, each a contender for try of the year. The first he burned a very good player in Matt Dufty on a 70m run. The second was one of those corner flag flying leaps the wingers are ripping off these days. Smith’s point of difference was changing hands in mid-air. For the third try he linked with Will Hopoate on his 20m line, hit a hole and ran like Forrest Gump into space. Tall, long-striding, and really quick, Smith looks a very real prospect.
Another one is five-eighth Lachlan Lewis, who was poised and strong. Aiden Tolman didn’t stop and ran 235m while David Klemmer ran 264m and made several of his signature diamond-hard charges. And they had a few mates who, even in the rain, just kept on playing footy. The 38-0 victory was one of their season’s best.
The Dragons were just poor. Ben Hunt is on an edge while Kurt Mann is on the other one, a running No 6 playing the ball. Hunt needs Gareth Widdop like Wallace needs Gromit. The star five-eighth is slated to return in finals week two but in this form, the Dragons won’t have a finals week two.
The Dragons are in a morass in a pit and getting out of it will be Lazarus-like. Next up, they have the Knights in Newcastle, on emotional old-boy’s day in front of a packed house. The Saints as premiers? In this form, they’re 50-1 in an eight-horse field.
Cronulla Sharks have emerged, perhaps, as grand finalists most likely. Theirs is a tidy combination of bulk, experience and high-end speed. Matt Prior, Aaron Woods, Paul Gallen and Andrew Fifita form a potent middle division. Matt Moylan will come back into it, Josh Dugan is in form and Val Holmes is running super lines, hard and fast.
Like the Raiders, Brisbane Broncos have beaten the Roosters and Rabbitohs in consecutive matches, and Wayne Bennett has them purring into the finals. Souths and the Roosters remain equal second on 32 points while five teams sit on 30 points with one round to play.
Which leaves, as ever, Melbourne Storm top of the pops. Even without Cameron Smith they had enough nous to beat Gold Coast Titans in a knock-down fight at Cbus Super Stadium. A tough game and a perfect one for Storm in preparation for cut-throat finals fixtures. Storm can – and will – win ugly. The way this season is panning out, it could be enough.
