We are approaching the most unique draft in NFL history. With the coronavirus pandemic altering life in just about every way for just about everyone, NFL coaches and executives are certainly not outside that reality. Zoom meetings have replaced confabs with area scouts and draft prospects. Coaches and general managers are preparing their own personal war rooms with televisions everywhere in their homes when they’d usually be kitted out in team facilities. Even the draft prospects invited to the virtual version of the draft will be remote participants, encouraged like the rest of us to practice social distancing.
How will it be different? The people in charge of the exercise have said that there’s more of a reliance on game tape, and with those prospects who have had injury issues, you have to go on faith to a point. Modern technology can only go so far in the face of something like this.
Still, here comes the draft, and here’s one person’t opinion of how the first round might go.
1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
As has been said all along, let’s not overthink this. Burrow is the best quarterback in this draft class, and as such, he’s the most valuable prospect. Any concerns about his “one-year wonder” status should be allayed by his 60 touchdown passes, and ferocious games against some of the NCAA’s best defenses.
2. Washington Redskins: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
The Redskins had one good cornerback last season — Quinton Dunbar — and they offloaded him to the Seahawks for a fifth-round pick. Why is a mystery, but Ron Rivera will not be able to counter modern offenses with a cornerback battery of Kendall Fuller, Fabian Moreau, Ronald Darby, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Yes, Chase Young is the much-ballyhooed pick here, but coverage is more important than pass rush when you have very little in the way of coverage. Okudah is an immediate asset as an aggressive, press-and-match defender.
3. Detroit Lions: Isaiah Simmons, Defense, Clemson
If Okudah goes with the second pick, Matt Patricia and his front office have decisions to make. They could trade down, or they could note that last season, Detroit’s defense played base on just 19% of all snaps, and had six or more defensive backs on the field 34% of the time. Adding Jamie Collins is a bit of a help, but he’s not a singular talent in the same way Simmons is. The Clemson alum would be the ideal run-and-chase linebacker for the Lions’ iterations of pass coverage.
4. New York Giants: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Young falling to the fourth pick should make things obvious for Giants general manager Dave Gettleman, who likes to do things in an unconventional fashion. But best player available and need align here — the Giants have precious little in the way of pass rush, and Young has every attribute required to change that in a hurry.
5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Recntly, Nick Saban sent a warning to those NFL teams balking on Tagovailoa’s medical concerns. Saban was the Dolphins’ head coach in 2006, and he let a future Hall of Fame quarterback leave for New Orleans around similar issues.
“We failed Drew Brees on the physical. That’s why he’s not Miami’s quarterback,” Saban told the Wall Street Journal. “The sky’s the limit [with Tagovailoa]. I don’t think any of the questions with Tua have to do with his ability to throw the ball and be effective.”
There shouldn’t be any questions there, and Miami shouldn’t overthink this. When healthy, Tagovailoa is closer to Joe Burrow in talent and potential than any other quarterback in this draft class.
6. Los Angeles Chargers: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
After trading Russell Okung to the Panthers for guard Trai Turner, the Chargers have a very obvious need at left tackle. And head coach Anthony Lynn, who worked with Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo, seems to believe that Taylor is a more than adequate bridge quarterback. With that, let’s have the Chargers take Thomas, the most pro-ready pass-protector in this class.
7. Carolina Panthers: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
Carolina’s run defense was abysmal last season, and there’s not much on the depth chart acquired through free agency to change that. Kinlaw projects to me as the best interior lineman in this class in terms of potential. He needs work with technique and hand skills, but once that’s taken care of, he could be the best overall defensive weapon selected in 2020.
8. Arizona Cardinals: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
Most project a tackle to the Cardinals as the finishing piece to an offense that was very good in 2019 and looks to be even better with Kyler Murray’s development and the trade for DeAndre Hopkins. But if the Cards are looking to take the NFC West in 2020, they’ll have to make a few tweaks on defense. Signing former Bills defensive tackle Jordan Phillips to a three-year, $30 million contract this offseason is step one, and adding Brown as a premium run-stopper and pass-rusher with great potential would make opposing ballcarriers very unhappy.
9. Atlanta Falcons (from Jacksonville Jaguars): CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
Heavy rumors surround the Falcons and their desire to trade up for an impact defensive player. Here, they rise seven spots in a trade with the Jaguars and take Henderson, who’s the second-best cover cornerback in this class behind Jeff Okudah. Henderson isn’t as physical, but given the current status of Atlanta’s secondary, he’ll be the top defender right away.
10. Cleveland Browns: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
The Browns were smart to acquire former Falcons tight end Austin Hooper in free agency; they can pair him with David Njoku in new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s preferred two-tight end sets. Now, it’s time to give Baker Mayfield a reliable blind-side blocker. Becton is a massive lineman with the agility to follow edge-rushers through the arc, and the kind of power that allows him to throw defenders around in ways that are almost cartoomish.
11. New York Jets: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
Jets general manager Joe Douglas made a bunch of smaller moves in free agency to subtly improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Now, it’s time for the big splash. Wills has the ability to plug in right away as a pure demolisher in the run game, and has the nascent agility to be an asset in pass protection, as well.
12. Las Vegas Raiders: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
Outside of tight end Darren Waller, the Raiders are short on impact receivers; it’s more situational guys like Hunter Renfrow, Tyrell Williams, and Zay Jones. More is required in Jon Gruden’s terminology-heavy West Coast-based offense, in which route precision is a must. Jeudy is not only the best and most nuanced route-runner in this class; he also has the breakaway and separation speed to make fools of college defenders most of the time. The Raiders would be happy to bet that Jeudy will do the same to NFL DBs.
13. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis Colts): CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is the NFL’s best offensive play designer, which is how he created a top-tier passing attack last season without an alpha receiver. Yes, George Kittle is the game’s premier tight end and Deebo Samuel is a most impressive package player, but if Shanahan were able to add Lamb to his offense, Jimmy Garoppolo just might look as good as the 49ers seem to think he is. Lamb brings DeAndre Hopkins to mind with his quickness, toughness, and route understanding.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tristan Wirfs, OL, Iowa
The hits just keep on coming! Now that Rob Gronkowski has reunited with Tom Brady in a Tampa Bay offense that also includes receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, not to mention tight ends O.J. Howard (for now) and red-zone weapon Cameron Brate, it’s time to improve that offensive line. Wirfs is the strongest offensive lineman in this class, which will be a boon to the Buccaneers’ underfunded run game. And the fact that he might be able to kick inside to guard as Ali Marpet’s bookend could be huge for Brady, whose Kryptonite has always been pressure up the middle.
15. Denver Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
In limited action last season, rookie quarterback Drew Lock threw 11 passes of 20 or more air yards, completing just three for 96 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Part of that has to do with Lock’s combination of velocity and iffy accuracy; part of the negative equation was the fact that the Broncos didn’t have a real deep threat. If Denver is going to push in all its chips on Lock’s future as a deep passer, it would behoove John Elway and his staff to give Lock a guy who can torch enemy defenses downfield. There’s nobody better than Ruggs in this class when it comes to that — last season, Ruggs caught just four deep passes, but they went for 169 yards and three touchdowns. He has the potential to bring Tyreek Hill-level explosiveness to any passing game.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Atlanta Falcons): Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
With Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye both out the door as part of Jacksonville’s mysterious defense-destroying roster purge, it’s time to load up on cornerbacks. Fulton has occasional issues in coverage and leverage when he comes off the ball too high, but he also has outstanding recovery quickness and can be a force multiplier in zone coverage. He will allow the occasional big play, but he’ll prevent far more.
17. New England Patriots (from Dallas Cowboys): Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Here’s a big potential trade, with the Patriots dealing up with Dallas to take their ostensible quarterback of the future in Herbert. He fits the New England paradigm as a big guy with a big arm and some mobility, and while he needs help with second- and third-level reads and accuracy to the boundary, he’s got more on the ball than Jarrett Stidham, who’s the only Tom Brady replacement on the horizon at this time. And while I might love for Bill Belichick to go against type and select a more mobile new-wave quarterback for his last era in Foxboro, it might be too big a stretch even for him.
18. Miami Dolphins (from Pittsburgh Steelers): Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
The Dolphins selected Alabama Swiss Army knife defender Minkah Fitzpatrick with the 11th pick in 2018 draft, and watched as Fitzpatrick became one of the NFL’s best slot cornerbacks in his rookie campaign. Then, they traded Fitzpatrick to the Steelers for this pick, and Fitzpatrick became one of the NFL’s best deep-third safeties. McKinney would give the same level of quality and versatility to a secondary that’s stacked at the cornerback position, but has very little of note at safety.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (from Chicago Bears): Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
The Raiders made some good moves on the defensive side of the ball in free agency, but with a cornerback group comprised of Trayvon Mullen and a bunch of guys, it won’t matter much against the NFL’s better passing games. In other words, Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock had better stock up on cornerbacks with a quickness in this draft. Fortunately, it’s a deep group, Gladney is one of the best with his quickness to trail receivers, footwork to match through the routes, and toughness as a tackler. He’s not the biggest in this group at 5-foot-10 and 191 pounds, but he projects well at the NFL level, especially as an eraser of intermediate and deep routes.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams): Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
Remember when we said a few picks ago that it was time for the Jaguars to stock up on cornerbacks? That’s still true, even with the loss of quality as just about every other defensive position, and the organization’s seeming need to antagonize Yannick Ngakoue, its best pass-rusher. Johnson never allowed a passer rating higher than 57.6 in three high-target seasons with the Utes, and he’s one of the better diagnosticians among cornerbacks in this class. If you want a guy who’s going to run his receivers’ routes for them based on excessive film work, Johnson is your man.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
Jefferson was primarily a slot target at LSU, partially because he was so good in that role, and partially because when you have Ja’Marr Chase on the outside, you kinda want to stick with that. But as my Touchdown Wire colleague Mark Schofield recently pointed out in this outstanding tape piece, Jefferson also has the attributes one prefers in a boundary receiver. He’d be an ideal component in a Doug Pederson offense even if the Eagles’ receivers could stay healthy, and even more so if they can’t.
22. Minnesota Vikings (from Buffalo Bills): Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
The departure of Stefon Diggs to Buffalo via trade leaves the Vikings in need of a speed receiver who can win at the catch point and has an above-average catch radius. This is especially true considering the fact that Minnesota has re-committed to the decidedly average Kirk Cousins with a three-year, $96 million contract extension. Higgins checks all the boxes as a Diggs replacement — at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, he has the ability to make all kinds of contested catches, and last season, he caught 15 of 23 targets of 20 air yards or more for 565 yards and six touchdowns.
23. Dallas Cowboys (from New England Patriots): Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan
Losing cornerback Byron Jones and defensive linemen Robert Quinn and Maliek Collins (not to mention slot receiver Randall Cobb) in free agency would seem to make the Cowboys’ draft priorities clear.
“You’re getting in a spot where we’re gonna be looking at both the back end and front end on defense,” Cowboys VP Stephen Jones recently said on Dallas radio. “And then obviously after losing Cobb, certainly that’s a position we’d be more than willing to look at too, the receiver spot.”
Sure. But bear with me here. The cornerback, edge-rusher and receiver classes are rounds deep this year, and the interior offensive line group is decidedly not. The Cowboys are looking to replace the recently retired Travis Frederick, and that offensive line doesn’t look nearly as good without him. When Frederick was selected with the 31st overall pick in the 2013 draft, even he was surprised. And yet, for all the caterwauling about that pick, Frederick proved to be an immensely valuable player, and worth his draft slot. Ruiz is a plug-and-play guy who could fill Fredrick’s slot immediately.
24. New Orleans Saints: Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado
Adding speedy possession receiver Emmanuel Sanders to a receiver group topped by Mike Thomas gives Drew Brees options he hasn’t had in a while. Now, let’s do something more for Brees in the person of Shenault. The Colorado alum isn’t the most practiced route-runner in this class, but he has size/speed attributes you can’t teach, and he’s a beast in short areas and after the catch. With Shenault on board, the Saints would have a receiver group that’s capable of making any defensive coordinator highly agitated.
25. Minnesota Vikings: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
One Diggs out, one Diggs in. In this case, having traded Stefon Diggs to the Bills, the Vikings avail themselves of the Alabama cornerback, who’s Diggs’ younger brother, and has leaned on his family connections for advice on how to handle the NFL’s best receivers. This Diggs projects very well as a press cornerback with the ability to lock down opposing receivers, especially up the seam and to the boundary. Think Richard Sherman by way of Jalen Ramsey, and that’s a window into his NFL potential. Last season, Diggs allowed just four catches on 18 targets of 20 or more air yards.
26. Miami Dolphins (from Houston Texans): Josh Jones, OT, Houston
Right now, Julie’n Davenport is projected at the Dolphins’ starting right tackle, and let’s just say that’s not going to work for whoever is the Dolphins’ quarterback du jour in 2020 and beyond. It’s time for Miami to replace one of the league’s most porous pass-blockers, and there are few better in that role in this class than Jones. Last season, he allowed just one sack and three quarterback hurries in 325 pass-blocking snaps, and his run-blocking is on the rise.
27. Seattle Seahawks: Antoine Winfield, S, Minnesota
In 2019, the Seahawks tried to replace Earl Thomas with an aggregate of decent safeties, and it didn’t pan out. Then, they fleeced the Lions, acquiring Quandre Diggs for a fifth-round pick in October. That probably saved Seattle’s defense and its season, and now would be a good time for Pete Carroll and John Schneider to double up. Of all the safeties in this class, Winfield, the son of the former Bills and Vikings Pro Bowl cornerback, reminds me the most of Thomas with his intelligence, range, ball skills, and ferocious playing demeanor. Limited to just eight total games in the 2017 and 2018 seasons due to injury, Winfield came back with a vengeance (and seven interceptions) in 2019.
28. Baltimore Ravens: Zack Baun, LB/EDGE, Wisconsin
In 2018, the Ravens led the NFL in blitz rate at 39.6%. In 2019, the Ravens led the NFL in blitz rate at 54.9%. So, this is a schematic feature and not a fluke. When you being more than the usual number of defenders to the quarterback, you need a great secondary (which the Ravens have), and a versatile linebacker group (which is where this defense needs some work). Baun certainly brings pass rush — he had 53 total pressures for the Badgers last season — but he also has the athletic potential to play off-ball linebacker more than he has. He’d be a perfect piece for Don Martindale’s defense.
29. Tennessee Titans: K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
The Titans have a rising pass-rushing star in Harold Landry, and they signed Vic Beasley on a one-year deal in the hope that they can help him resuscitate the best of his days with the Falcons. But that’s far from a sure thing, and as they say, you can never have too many pass-rushers. Chaisson isn’t the most refined edge guy, and power tackles can eat him for lunch, but he brings scary speed and a surprising bull rush if he’s deployed outside in multiple fronts.
30. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State
Aaron Rodgers started to thrive in Matt LaFleur’s system last season after years tied to Mike McCarthy’s Football for Dummies route concepts. Now, it’s time to reward Rodgers with a receiver who can act as a complementary force to the great Davante Adams. Aiyuk brings peak Emmanuel Sanders to mind with his sneaky downfield speed and surprising route awareness. He’d be a great addition to a passing game in which discipline and explosiveness are ideally equally weighted ideas.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Ashtyn Davis, S, Cal
The 49ers are pretty set at cornerback with Richard Sherman and Emmanuel Moseley outside and K’Waun Williams in the slot, but the safety group is less defined. Ideally, in Robert Saleh’s defense, there’s a prototypical deep third safety who can run with the quickest receivers all over the field. Davis, who walked on at Cal to run track and then started pestering the football coaches for a spot, has become that sort of player. Davis is tough enough to play in the box as well, but in Saleh’s schemes, he’d be an ideal range defender.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
The defending Super Bowl champs will need to upgrade their linebacker corps to a more athletic group if they are to defend their title, especially against the pass. Right now, there’s nobody on that roster who fits the modern prototype of the true half-field linebacker, which limits defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s options. Queen would solve that immediately — built like a big safety at 6-foot-0 and 229 pounds, he can run with tight ends and running backs up the seam, seamlessly flips his hips in coverage, and has more pop against the run than you might think.
