The MLB trade deadline is still about six weeks away, but the rumor mill has already started churning. Some names will dominate headlines all summer, while others will emerge as trade candidates once the line between buyers and sellers becomes more clear. Not every player linked to trade speculation is equally likely to move, though, and separating genuine possibilities from deadline noise is part of the fun of being a fan.
That’s what this exercise aims to do. We’ve ranked the 25 most valuable players who we see as realistic candidates to be traded if the cards break right over the next six weeks while also predicting whether each one will actually be dealt. Last season, we correctly predicted the fate of 17 of 25 players around this point in the calendar, and that number improved to 20 of 25 in our revised list closer to the deadline.
Let’s see how we fare this time around.
All stats up to date through Wednesday’s games.
1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers SP
2026 stats: 3–3, 2.81 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 49 K, 7 BB, 1.5 fWAR in 48 IP
Years of control: Through 2026
Best fits: Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, Braves, Cubs, Phillies, Padres, Blue Jays
Despite Skubal’s status as a rental, there’s no doubt who the biggest potential trade chip is this season. The two-time Cy Young Award winner made a stunningly quick recovery from his elbow injury, and looked sharp in his return to the mound last week. Assuming he continues to maintain his form, Skubal should demand a hefty return in a trade if the Tigers remain out of contention. Any team that feels it’s an ace away from being a legitimate World Series contender will be making calls to Detroit in the coming weeks. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported that the Tigers are looking for controllable pitching and athletic position players close to the majors in return for Skubal. When specifics like that are getting leaked, you have to figure a deal will get done unless the Tigers roar back into contention.
Prediction: Traded
2. Byron Buxton, Twins OF
2026 stats: .275/.336/.601, 23 HR, 51 R, 36 RBI, 7 SB, 153 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR in 63 games
Years of control: Through 2028
Best fits: Braves, Padres, Blue Jays
For most of his career, Buxton’s biggest hurdle has been battling injuries to stay on the field. After logging 126 games in 2025—his most since ‘17—the talented center fielder has been healthy so far this season, and he’s been as productive as ever. He’s safely on pace for his second straight 30-homer campaign, while his speed remains elite enough to keep him in center field. There aren’t many two-way threats of this caliber available midseason, and teams will line up to acquire a true difference-maker if Minnesota shows a willingness to make a big move.
Prediction: Not traded
3. Joe Ryan, Twins SP
2026 stats: 4–3, 3.17 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 92 K, 16 BB, 2.4 fWAR in 82 ⅓ IP
Years of control: Through 2026
Best fits: A’s, Cubs, Braves, Rays, White Sox, Padres, Phillies
Ryan has posted a 3.43 ERA and 22.8 K-BB% over the past three years, establishing himself as one of the league’s most consistent front-line starters. His addition of a knuckle curve to his pitch mix has given him a more diversified arsenal, giving him more arrows in his quiver that should enable him to maintain effectiveness into his 30s. For this year’s deadline, though, he’ll just be a rental, and given the form he’s displayed so far this season, teams should expect ace-like production for the stretch run.
Prediction: Traded
4. Jeremy Peña, Astros SS
2026 stats: .273/.340/.391, 3 HR, 5 SB, 25 R, 107 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR in 28 games
Years of control: Through 2027
Best fits: Braves, Rays, Blue Jays
Will Houston actually decide to move on from Peña? A franchise cornerstone who was the World Series MVP as a rookie, the 28-year-old bounced back from a hamstring injury earlier this year and is enjoying a productive campaign so far. He’s running well and playing strong defense, and doing so while posting an above-average slash line for the second straight season. Dealing Peña would mark a significant pivot for Houston, but if he were made available, virtually every team would be interested.
Prediction: Not traded
5. Reid Detmers, Angels SP
2026 stats: 3–5, 3.68 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 100 K, 24 BB, 2.8 fWAR in 88 IP
Years of control: Through 2028
Best fits: Cardinals, White Sox, Rays, Braves, Cubs,
Detmers has had a roller coaster of a career thus far, and is currently riding a high with peripherals that make it feel as though he’s finally turned a significant corner. After being demoted in 2024, he returned to the big leagues as an effective reliever in ‘25 before earning a rotation spot this season. The results have been fantastic, which means it’s a great time to sell high for an organization that’s nowhere near contention. It’s the Angels, though, who have long resisted selling team-controlled players at the deadline. If they decide to pivot, though, trading Detmers would yield much-needed impact prospects for a farm system roundly considered among the worst in the sport.
Prediction: Not traded
6. Hunter Goodman, Rockies C
2026 stats: .251/.323/.529, 20 HR, 45 R, 37 RBI, 5 SB, 119 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR in 68 G
Years of control: Through 2029
Best fits: Yankees, Red Sox
Goodman has developed into a true run producer for Colorado, anchoring the middle of the lineup while providing solid enough defense behind the dish. Under team control for three more seasons beyond this one, the Rockies will place a high asking price on him, and it’s far from a sure thing he would get moved. With new leadership at the helm in the front office, though, nothing is off the table.
Prediction: Not traded
7. Jose Soriano, Angels SP
2026 stats: 8–4, 2.79 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 92 K, 42 BB, 1.4 fWAR in 87 IP
Years of control: Through 2028
Best fits: Rays, Cardinals, White Sox, Braves
A scorching start to the year has receded, as Soriano has looked far more pedestrian since the start of May. Still, the hard-throwing righthander looks at the very least like a solid mid-rotation arm who keeps the ball on the ground at 53% clip. If he can miss bats at the same rate he did to begin the season, he’ll be an ace. The same caveat with Detmers applies to Soriano, though—the Angels have not demonstrated a willingness to trade players with this much team control.
Prediction: Not traded
8. Willson Contreras, Red Sox 1B
2026 stats: .299/.392/.560, 16 HR, 43 RBI, 158 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 68 games
Years of control: Through 2027, with a team option for ‘28
Best fits: Guardians, Marlins, Mets
Middle-of-the-order bats are a rarity at the trade deadline, and Contreras fits the bill as one of the game’s best power options. His 157 wRC+ ranks seventh among qualified hitters, and .257 ISO ranks 16th. Contreras is under club control for a manageable $36 million for the two seasons after this one, so he could be a fixture in an acquiring team’s intermediate plans.
Prediction: Traded
9. Freddy Peralta, Mets SP
2026 stats: 5–5, 3.90 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 81 K, 33 BB, 1.2 fWAR in 83 IP
Years of control: Through 2026
Best fits: Cubs, Padres, Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, White Sox
With the Mets languishing in last place, Peralta's time in Queens could be brief. While the righthander has been far from New York's biggest issue, his production has fallen off a bit from what it was with the Brewers. His strikeout rate is down to 22.7%—barely above league average and well below his career mark of 29.9% prior to this season—while his ERA and FIP are his worst since becoming a full-time starter in 2021. Peralta is still stable enough to be a reliable option for a contending team to start in a playoff series, but expectations are lower than what they were when the Mets dealt two top prospects for him in January. Another consideration here is that if the Mets don’t trade him and he signs elsewhere this offseason, the best compensatory pick they could get would be after the fourth round in next year’s draft because of their luxury tax status.
Prediction: Traded
10. Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox RP
2026 stats: 0–1, 0.44 ERA, 1.84 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, 14 SV, 28 K, 9 BB, 0.9 fWAR in 20 ⅔ IP
Years of control: Through 2026, with a vesting option for ‘27
Best fits: Brewers, Mariners, Rays, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, Reds, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Twins, A’s
Chapman, 38, has been rejuvenated over the past two years, recording a 0.99 ERA since the beginning of last season. The flamethrowing lefty’s strikeout rate is no longer at its astronomical peak of 17.7 K/9 over a decade ago, but he’s also exhibiting better control than he once did. Chapman was the only reliever to garner AL Cy Young votes last year, finishing seventh, and has allowed just one run this season. He’ll be the top reliever on the block and it makes all the sense in the world for the last-place Red Sox to trade the soon-to-be free agent.
Prediction: Traded
11. Jarren Duran, Red Sox LF
2026 stats: .214/.270/.398, 12 HR, 11 SB, 37 RBI, 79 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR in 65 games
Years of control: Through 2028
Best fits: Padres, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Astros, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Rangers, Phillies
Duran’s production at the plate has drastically declined for two years running since his fantastic 2024 campaign when he led the majors in doubles and triples. He’s long been rumored as the most likely outfielder the Red Sox would trade to alleviate their logjam, but does that still ring true with his value the lowest it's been in the last four seasons? His 35.1% whiff rate ranks in the bottom five percent of the league. The good news is his speed and glove still provide positive value, and some teams could see Duran as a premium change-of-scenery candidate.
Prediction: Not traded (but traded in offseason)
12. Sandy Alcantara, Marlins SP
2026 stats: 6–4, 4.25 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 71 K, 23 BB, 1.3 fWAR in 97 ⅓ IP
Years of control: Through 2026, with a team option for ‘27
Best fits: Cubs, Cardinals, White Sox, Blue Jays
Trade speculation followed Alcantara for nearly all of 2025, but his 7.22 ERA through last year’s All-Star break severely tanked his market to the point that Miami held onto him. He’s been much better in the first half in 2026, though not quite back to his Cy Young Award peak. Alcantara is giving up hard contact far less frequently than he did a year ago, though his strikeout rate is down to a career-low 17.8%. He has a $21 million team option for ‘27, which could make him more than a rental for any team that decides to trade for him. The Marlins remain on the periphery of the wild-card race, so they could ultimately decide to keep him again.
Prediction: Not traded
13. Casey Mize, Tigers SP
2026 stats: 2–4, 2.58 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 52 K, 13 BB, 1.7 fWAR in 52 ⅓ IP
Years of control: Through 2026
Best fits: Cubs, Braves, A’s, Padres, Rays
Mize returned from the injured list Wednesday after missing three weeks with abductor inflammation, and while he wasn’t his sharpest, it was good to see him back on the mound to continue what had been an excellent start to the season. The No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft has posted below-average strikeout rates for most of his career, but is up to a 25.2% clip this season. That should encourage inquiring teams that he can be a top-end rotation piece for the stretch run.
Prediction: Traded
14. Matt Chapman, Giants 3B
2026 stats: .280/.346/.412, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 35 R, 115 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR in 72 games
Years of control: Through 2030
Best fits: Phillies, Yankees, Pirates, Reds, Marlins
After a miserable start to the year, Chapman has heated up in a big way in June, lifting his season numbers back in line with his career norms. The five-time Gold Glove winner remains a standout defender at the hot corner, and he’s yet to post a wRC+ below league average in any single season. His contract (he’s owed $100 million from 2027 to ‘30) will price him out of some teams’ market unless the Giants show a willingness to eat some money. ESPN’s Buster Olney did report San Francisco is open to considering offers for Chapman, Rafael Devers and Willy Adames in an attempt to cut salary, and Chapman is arguably the only one with surplus value.
Prediction: Traded
15. Sonny Gray, Red Sox SP
2026 stats: 8–1, 3.12 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 55 K, 17 BB, 1.1 fWAR in 69 ⅓ IP
Years of control: Through 2026, with a mutual option for ‘27
Best fits: White Sox, Braves, Cubs, Padres, Rays
Gray’s 19.9% strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been in a decade, a predictable development for the 36-year-old whose velocity now ranks in the bottom 15th percentile. He can nevertheless still perform like a top-of-the-rotation arm, having allowed one run or fewer in seven of his 12 starts, and he led the AL with a 5.3 K/BB ratio last season. A more realistic yet still valuable role for him is a mid-rotation starter who can comfortably take the mound in the playoffs. Gray does have a no-trade clause, but after his comments about the Red Sox “not being a good team right now,” you have to wonder if he’d be willing to go elsewhere.
Prediction: Traded
16. Luis Arraez, Giants 2B
2026 stats: .324/.358/.442, 2 HR, 5 SB, 36 R, 26 RBI, 121 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 70 games
Years of control: Through 2026
Best fits: Rangers, Padres, Twins, Rays
A year after posting a career-low 104 wRC+, Arraez has upped his offensive game back to his previous career norm, while elevating his defensive prowess considerably to the point where he’s now a plus defender at second base (Giants infield coach Ron Washington continues to work magic at age 74). That should make teams more interested in adding him atop their lineup, as well as put the three-time batting champion in a better free agency position this offseason. Arraez also makes sense as a rare in-season extension candidate, especially if San Francisco can clear salary elsewhere.
Prediction: Traded
17. Michael Wacha, Royals SP
2026 stats: 4–5, 3.64 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 72 K, 28 BB, 1.5 fWAR in 94 IP
Years of control: Through 2027, with a team option for ‘28
Best fits: Cardinals, A’s, Blue Jays, White Sox
Since 2022, Wacha has logged a 3.48 ERA across 695 innings, establishing himself as one of the game’s most reliable starters. He does not possess top-of-the-rotation stuff, as his strikeout rate has sat at 18% over the past two seasons and likely isn’t getting above 20% again. But for a team in need of an extra rotation piece to get them into the playoff field, he’d be an excellent addition. And with the Royals going nowhere fast, expect Wacha to be on the move.
Prediction: Traded
18. Gleyber Torres, Tigers 2B
2026 stats: .280/.395/.395, 4 HR, 26 R, 18 RBI, 126 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR in 43 games
Years of control: Through 2026
Best fits: Rangers, Padres, Rays, Red Sox
A strained left oblique landed Torres on the injured list this week, tough timing if Detroit is looking to shop the veteran second baseman. It’s the second time this season Torres has been placed on the IL with the same injury, with the first stint costing him a month of action. After returning to the lineup on June 2, Torres had been on a tear, batting .341/.413/.585 in 11 games. The latest setback will certainly impact his market, and he’ll need to return and prove he’s still productive prior to the deadline if the Tigers hope to find a robust market for their second baseman.
Prediction: Traded
19. Taylor Ward, Orioles OF
2026 stats: .257/.402/.354, 3 HR, 46 R, 20 RBI, 123 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR
Years of control: Through 2026
Best fits: Diamondbacks, Braves, Rays, Guardians, Blue Jays, Padres, Rangers, Phillies
Ward’s profile has completely flipped since his breakout 2025 campaign in which he slugged a career-best 36 homers and 13.7% barrel rate. Through his first two-plus months this year, he’s become an on-base machine with limited thump, walking at an 18.8% clip with just three home runs. That still grades out to a well above-average slash line, and makes him a viable leadoff hitter for a contending team should the Orioles decide to move off the impending free agent, either in exchange for pitching or after a pivot to selling.
Prediction: Traded
20. Ryan Jeffers, Twins C
2026 stats: .295/.408/.541, 7 HR, 26 R, 26 RBI, 163 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR in 37 games
Years of control: Through 2026
Best fits: Padres, Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox
Jeffers got off to a scorching start to the season but has been on the injured list since mid-May with a broken hamate bone. He’s working his way back and should return before the All-Star break, giving him a few weeks to showcase his return to health for prospective teams looking to add some offense behind the dish. Jeffers owns a 121 wRC+ across 1,411 plate appearances since 2023, and particularly hammers lefties. Finding stellar hitting from the catcher spot at the deadline is an uphill climb, so offense-needy teams should be lining up to add some thump to their lineups.
Prediction: Traded
21. Christian Walker, Astros 1B
2026 stats: .245/.316/.495, 18 HR, 42 R, 52 RBI, 122 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR in 74 games
Years of control: Through 2027
Best fits: Guardians, Marlins, Mets
The first season of Walker’s three-year, $60 million contract didn’t go as planned, but in Year 2 the veteran slugger is back to what he’s looked like for most of his 30s—a 30-home run hitter who’s around 20% above league average at the plate. Right-handed power will be in limited supply this summer, so the Astros should have plenty of suitors if they decide to sell (or if they simply want to get his contract off their books in case he regresses at age 36 next year).
Prediction: Not traded
22. Seth Lugo, Royals SP
2026 stats: 2–4, 3.86 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 66 K, 25 BB, 1.6 fWAR in 79 ⅓ IP
Years of control: Through 2027, with vesting/club option for ‘28
Best fits: Cardinals, Blue Jays, White Sox
Can you remember who the AL Cy Young Award runner-up was in 2024? That’s right, it was Lugo. He didn’t truly threaten Tarik Skubal in that race and he won’t provide the same sort of impact going forward, but the 36-year-old eats innings and held his own in the playoffs a couple of years ago. Lugo did suffer a scary moment when he was hit on the head by a comebacker on June 10, but after a short stay on the concussion injured list, he’s expected to return to the mound Friday. The righthander did sign an extension with the Royals last summer that pays him $20 million per season with an innings-based vesting option for 2028. But the Royals could be forced into some uncomfortable decisions if they continue to languish at the bottom of the AL Central. I’m not so sure there are many teams out there willing to pay Lugo at the same rate Kansas City agreed to, though.
Prediction: Not traded
23 JJ Bleday, Reds OF
2026 stats: .268/.370/.579, 13 HR, 27 R, 34 RBI, 155 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR in 44 games
Years of control: Through 2028
Best fits: Padres, Phillies, Astros, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Rangers, Phillies
Bleday was non-tendered by the Athletics over the offseason but caught on with the Reds and has been fantastic since being called up in late April. The former No. 4 overall pick by the Marlins was named the NL Player of the Month for May, becoming the first Red to receive the honor since Joey Votto in July 2021. Cincinnati is by no means obligated to trade Bleday, who has two more years of team control, while just three games back in the wild-card race. On the other hand, the Reds are the only NL Central team with a negative run differential (-52) and could take this opportunity to sell high on him if their record starts to more accurately reflect that. The question is if teams will value him closer to the elite hitter he’s been this year or as the replacement-level player he was during most of his time with the A’s.
Prediction: Not traded
24. Isaac Paredes, Astros 3B
2026 stats: .233/.343/.413, 10 HR, 29 R, 35 RBI, 114 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 68 games
Years of control: Through 2026, with a team option for ‘27
Best fits: Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Pirates, Guardians, Red Sox
Paredes probably won’t make his third consecutive All-Star team this year, but he qualifies as discounted right-handed pop, which should be in high demand and short supply this summer. He also carries a $13.4 million team option for next year that could be worth exercising depending on how he finishes the season. The biggest obstacle to a move is that with Carlos Correa out for the year, Paredes is Houston’s only quality option at third base—and Astros owner Jim Crane doesn’t like to throw in the towel on a season, especially with the AL West ripe for the taking.
Prediction: Not traded
25. Matt Shaw, Cubs 3B
2026 stats: .257/.313/.419, 3 HR, 3 SB, 14 RBI, 105 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR in 47 games
Years of control: Through 2031
Best fits: Marlins, Phillies, Red Sox
Despite grading out as a below-average hitter during his rookie season last year, Shaw still produced 3.0 bWAR thanks to his stellar defense at third base. Unfortunately for him, the Cubs went out and acquired Alex Bregman during the offseason to supplant him. Shaw has capably bounced around the diamond in 2026, playing every position except pitcher and catcher, but he’d be most valuable at the hot corner. And with Chicago needing quality pitching, he’s a young player with big-league experience they could offer in return who’d likely benefit from playing every day.
