Sometimes, handicapping the American and National League Rookie of the Year races is about being flexible—feeling out who's hot at any particular moment over the course of a long season.
However, sometimes, the art of assessment requires patience. Throughout the year, Braves catcher Drake Baldwin has bobbed up and down the NL pecking order. He’s been prone to weekly foibles, but all along he’s slashed .280/.352/.457 with 15 home runs, 62 RBIs and 2.6 bWAR in what could plausibly be described as part-time duty, and he’s now pushed past Sean Murphy to claim the lion’s share of the starts behind the plate in Atlanta.
While his season-long excellence should result in him being named NL Rookie of the Year, there are a few other players peaking at the right time to prevent it from being a certainty. This week's six contenders feature some faces that are familiar, some returning, some new. Welcome to the latest edition of MLB Rookie Watch.
American League
1. Nick Kurtz, first baseman, Athletics
Kurtz is controlling essentially every variable in this race he can control in one of the great rookie seasons of the 21st century. He leads all AL rookies in bWAR and win probability added, and his 4.7 bWAR extrapolates to 8.0 over a 162-game season. Since the last Rookie Watch column a month ago in which we acknowledged Kurtz as the new AL favorite, Kurtz has run away with the distinction by slashing .324/.474/.568, making his own luck with an astounding .465 BABIP (2026 regression seems likely, but that's another column). An oblique injury that cost him three recent games appears to be resolved.
2. Roman Anthony, outfielder, Red Sox
The Roman Empire was more of a Roman Republic to start the season; as recently as July 2 he was sitting on a .200/.309/.329 slash line. However, it's been ad astra per aspera ever since—Anthony's last 25 games include a .306/.389/.520 clip to go with six home runs and 13 RBIs. On the first day of that span, Anthony signed a lucrative contract extension, and he has earned every penny, even as a lengthy injured list trip looms and threatens to end his regular season. How many rookies can make an 8.7-bWAR player a year ago expandable?
3. Noah Cameron, pitcher, Royals
His last start of August was a nightmare—six earned runs allowed on eight hits in five innings as the White Sox shut his Royals out 7–0 on Aug. 25. Still, no other AL rookie starter can touch him. Any team would take his numbers extrapolated over a full season—13-11 with a 2.92 ERA and 149 strikeouts. With Kansas City in a tight wild-card race, he’ll have opportunities to affect winning down the stretch.
Honorable Mention
Jacob Wilson, shortstop, Athletics; Mike Vasil, pitcher, White Sox
National League
1. Drake Baldwin, catcher, Braves
On the strength of an uber-consistent 21-game stretch, Baldwin replaces stagnating Brewers infielder Caleb Durbin (.296 OBP in his last 30 games). Baldwin recovered from a mediocre July to post an .800 OPS in August, highlighted by an Aug. 7 showing against the Marlins in which he went 3-for-5 with two homers and five RBIs. If Atlanta takes the training wheels off in September—as many losing teams do for their youngsters—it’s Baldwin’s award to lose.
2. Isaac Collins, left fielder, Brewers
With Durbin cooling, Collins’s production this year has become undeniable even amid a below-average stretch for him. The versatile Creighton product is slashing .276/.373/.426 with eight home runs and 51 RBIs for a team still in possession of the best record in baseball. For the week ending Aug. 10, he was named the NL Player of the Week, flummoxing Braves and Mets pitchers with a .429/.538/.905 hot streak. Not bad for a Rule 5 draft pick Rockies fans are kicking themselves for seeing get away.
3. Cade Horton, pitcher, Cubs
The Cubs are blessed with two intriguing rookies in Horton and third baseman Matt Shaw, so let’s compare the two. Shaw has twice as many bWAR as Horton (2.8 against 1.4), but Horton has Shaw beaten in fWAR (1.7 to 1.2). OPS+ (102) and wRC+ (95) have Shaw as about a league-average hitter, but ERA+ (137) has Horton as a well-above-average hurler. We’ll give the last slot to Horton (9–4, 2.78 ERA), whose unique position as a pitcher among the NL ROY contenders could give him a leg up if he dominates in his September outings—the 2022 first-round pick got off to a good start Wednesday by holding the Braves hitless over five innings.
Honorable Mention
Matt Shaw, third baseman, Cubs; Braxton Ashcraft, pitcher, Reds
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLB Rookie Watch: Drake Baldwin Is Almost Ready to Claim Some Hardware.
