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Sports Illustrated

Sport

SI Staff

MLB Playoffs Roundtable: Expert Picks, Bold Predictions

Dodgers Padres Yankees Mariners MLB Phillies Brewers Shohei Ohtani AL (Organization) Babe Ruth

For the second straight year, no MLB team finished the regular season with 100 wins. In 2024, that resulted in the Yankees and Dodgers, a pair of No. 1 seeds and teams from the sport’s two biggest markets, qualifying for the World Series. What will happen this year with both of those franchises starting their postseason runs Tuesday in the wild-card round?

SI senior writers Tom Verducci, Stephanie Apstein and Ryan Phillips along with editors Will Laws and Nick Selbe make their picks all the way through the World Series as well as some bold predictions.

American League Bracket

Tom Verducci

AL Wild Card: Guardians over Tigers
AL Wild Card: Yankees over Red Sox
AL Division Series: Mariners over Guardians
AL Division Series: Yankees over Blue Jays
AL Championship Series: Yankees over Mariners

Stephanie Apstein

The Yankees are an incredibly flawed baseball team, but they are so talented that I think they're going to get away with it. You don't have to know how many outs there are in the inning if you just club the ball over the fence all the time. That said, I think eventually they will face a team that's more talented and less flawed, and they'll be in some trouble. (See below.)

Will Laws

AL Wild Card: Tigers over Guardians
AL Wild Card: Red Sox over Yankees
AL Division Series: Mariners over Tigers
AL Division Series: Blue Jays over Red Sox
AL Championship Series: Mariners over Blue Jays

The AL’s two best pitchers can help their teams pull off first-round upsets. The Blue Jays are the most overlooked No. 1 seed in recent memory, which could fuel them to the World Series, but I have a hard time overlooking the lack of swing-and-miss in their gray-haired rotation. It’s about time Seattle made a World Series—and after the Mariners’ midseason moves, they have enough offense to support their stellar pitching staff.

Nick Selbe

The Yankees have the offensive firepower. The Mariners have a loaded pitching staff. The difference will be Seattle's much-improved offense, with Julio Rodríguez possessing the star power to seize the moment on the big stage. Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suárez provide enough thump to give the Mariners their first-ever World Series appearance.

Ryan Phillips

Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez — Julio Rodriguez is aiming to lead the Mariners to the franchise’s first World Series appearance. | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

National League Bracket

Tom Verducci

NL Wild Card: Dodgers over Reds
NL Wild Card: Padres over Cubs
NL Division Series: Dodgers over Phillies
NL Division Series: Padres over Brewers
NL Championship Series: Dodgers over Padres

Stephanie Apstein

NL Wild Card: Dodgers over Reds
NL Wild Card: Padres over Cubs
NL Division Series: Dodgers over Phillies
NL Division Series: Brewers over Padres
NL Championship Series: Dodgers over Brewers

Will Laws

NL Wild Card: Dodgers over Reds
NL Wild Card: Padres over Cubs
NL Division Series: Phillies over Dodgers
NL Division Series: Padres over Brewers
NL Championship Series: Phillies over Padres

Maybe it’s actually the Brewers who are the most overlooked No. 1 seed in recent memory ... either way, Milwaukee’s lack of pop and untimely injuries to Brandon Woodruff and Jose Quintana may extend their playoff series losing streak. Philadelphia has the rotation, lineup and postseason experience needed to take down the pair of NL West teams in the bracket. I must admit the Phillies’ bullpen gives me pause, but any playoff-quality relief corps can catch fire for a few weeks—remember the 2021 Braves or ’23 Diamondbacks?

Nick Selbe

Ryan Phillips

The Brewers stumbled a bit down the stretch, going 12–12 in September, and now they're missing two of their top four starting pitchers. Their offense has cooled a bit, too, as their 99 wRC+ in September shows. The Padres have a formidable lineup and bullpen that can get them through the first couple of rounds, but the starting rotation can't handle a seven-game series against the Phillies, who have all the ingredients to make the NLCS a repeat of 2022.

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber (12) has water dumped on him by second base Bryson Stott — Kyle Schwarber, right, led the NL with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

World Series

Tom Verducci: Dodgers over Yankees
Stephanie Apstein: Dodgers over Yankees
Will Laws: Mariners over Phillies
Nick Selbe: Mariners over Dodgers
Ryan Phillips: Phillies over Mariners

TV: No team in the bottom half of home runs has won the World Series since the 2015 Royals. Sorry, Guardians, Reds, Brewers and Padres. Postseason baseball is about home runs and bullpens. Last year the MLB batting average in innings 7–9 sank from .235 in the regular season to .219 in the postseason. Old-fashioned rallies are rare. You need to change a game with quick strikes. The last five World Series champions all ranked in the top four in home runs and the top five in slugging. Eight of the last 10 pennant winners ranked in the top six in slugging. The Guardians, Padres, Brewers and Blue Jays play clean, “liberal arts” baseball—they thrive in multiple disciplines. They are fun to watch. But the Dodgers’ power at the plate (second in home runs, second in slugging) and on the mound (the most powerful rotation) make them the team to beat again.

SA: I know, I know. But the Dodgers have the best players, and I have to assume that eventually that's going to matter. The bullpen stinks, but they have so many good starters that they can paper over that weakness—and if everyone stays healthy, that's basically their only weakness.

WL: This is when the Phillies’ shallow bullpen—and lack of a reliable right-handed starter—could come to bite them. Seattle’s primary weakness is its defense, with a combined rating of -28 outs above average that ranked 28th in MLB, last among playoff teams. But the Mariners have so many sluggers who can change a game with one swing of the bat, led of course by Raleigh, and even more pitchers, both starters and relievers, who induce a lot of whiffs and keep traffic off the base paths. That’s a formula for success in the playoffs as long as they can avoid a defensive meltdown to recall last year’s Yankees.

NS: These two sides have the best combination of deep lineups and high-end starting pitching. During last year's title run, the Dodgers got major contributions from their bullpen, and there just seem to be too many question marks in that department this time around. Seattle is unproven in the postseason, but this roster has enough difference makers and balance throughout to finally break through.

RP: Apologies to the Big Dumper, but this feels like the Phillies’ year. Their lineup is deep, led by Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and, oh yeah, that Bryce Harper guy. While they are missing Zack Wheeler, their rotation is still excellent, and I feel good about it, especially after seeing Aaron Nola’s final start of the season.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani — Shohei Ohtani is entering his first postseason as a two-way player. | Allan Henry-Imagn Images

Which wild-card team is most capable of going on a deep run?

TV: The Padres. They have the best bullpen in baseball, especially with Mason Miller, whom manager Mike Shildt should deploy as a mid-game stopper the way Terry Francona used Andrew Miller in the 2016 postseason (nine of 10 appearances between the fifth and seventh innings).

SA: I have them losing in the first round, but my answer to this is still the Red Sox. I think they face a tough matchup against the Yankees’ Carlos Rodón and Max Fried in a short series, but if they can get through that, there’s no one else in the AL who scares me as much against them. Their lineup is dynamic, they have one of the top two starters in the league and the back end of the bullpen is elite.

WL: San Diego’s MLB-best bullpen and wealth of postseason experience makes the Padres a perfect candidate to get past the Cubs and Brewers in a couple of short series. I’m not as confident in their chances in a seven-game series, but if the rotation pitches to its potential rather than how some veterans have performed this season (looking at you, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish), they certainly have enough talent to win the franchise’s first championship.

NS: The Yankees, given that their lineup that’s deep with hitters who can impact games via the long ball. Boring pick, I know, but sometimes it’s best to not overthink these things.

RP: The Padres have rotation questions, but for the first time all season, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill are all hammering the ball at the same time.

San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado — Now in his seventh season in San Diego, Manny Machado is aiming to lead the Padres to their first World Series title. | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Bold predictions

TV: More wonders from Shohei Ohtani, who’s set to play in the postseason as a two-way player for the first time. He will replace Babe Ruth as the postseason starting pitcher to bat highest in a batting order. (Ruth hit sixth for the Red Sox in 1914 World Series Game 4.) And Ohtani will join Bob Gibson as the only starting pitchers to hit a home run and strike out 10 batters in a postseason game. (Incredibly, Gibson did it twice: ’67 World Series Game 7 and ’68 World Series Game 4.)

SA: We haven't seen a complete game in the playoffs since Justin Verlander allowed one run in nine innings for the Astros against the Yankees in the 2017 ALCS. We haven't even had an eight-inning performance since Clayton Kershaw blanked the Brewers for the Dodgers in the ’20 NL wild-card series! So my prediction is that that streak ends this year. A lot of this year’s playoff teams have very strong rotations and very shaky bullpens—the Phillies, for example, have gotten 14.6 WAR from their starters, best in baseball, and –0.1 WAR from their relievers, 12th. The situations are similar for the Yankees, the Dodgers and the Tigers. Someone is going to go nine because his manager is afraid of the alternative.

WL: Red Sox youngster Connelly Early will be the breakout star of the wild-card round after starting a Game 3 win for Boston in Yankee Stadium. An elbow injury to Lucas Giolito means the Sox need someone else to step up, and Early is the best option. The 23-year-old lefty struck out 11 hitters in his MLB debut against the Athletics earlier this month, and he has a sparkling 0.91 FIP in four career starts spanning 19 1/3 innings with 29 strikeouts and just four walks. Boston manager Alex Cora likely wouldn’t rely on Early for long in hostile territory, but he has the stuff to make a name for himself in short order.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLB Playoffs Roundtable: Expert Picks, Bold Predictions.

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