Though we’re weeks past Memorial Day, a holiday often referred to as an unofficial first checkpoint in baseball’s marathon season, there are obviously still so many big-picture MLB storylines that have yet to resolve.
Has the clock already struck midnight on the playoff hopes for the underachieving Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox? It’s a long season but the deck is stacked against both clubs. Were we treated to a World Series preview last weekend? Let’s tackle that notion and a few other topics in this week’s “Fact or Fiction.”
The Braves and Red Sox will both miss the playoffs
Verdict: Fact
The Braves, owners of seven straight postseason appearances, and the Red Sox, who seemed to make the most impactful upgrades this offseason (Garret Crochet, Alex Bregman), entered the season projected to be among the best teams in their respective leagues. Things haven’t exactly played out that way.
Atlanta started off 0–7 and just endured another seven-game losing streak. Its seemingly strong lineup has slumped its way to the bottom half of baseball’s rankings in terms of runs scored.
Boston, meanwhile, has a championship-caliber offense but one of the worst starting rotations in baseball. What would they do without Crochet?
The Red Sox and, especially, the Braves, who went from under .500 for half of the season to a championship in 2021, can look to success stories of teams that endured similar struggles and turned things around en route to the postseason. Plus, both teams have star power and World Series-winning managers in their dugouts.
But they both may have dug themselves in a hole that’s too deep to crawl out of. Baseball Reference gives the Red Sox a 16% chance to make the playoffs. Atlanta checks in at 9.2%. FanGraphs is more optimistic for both (Braves 26.9%, Red Sox 18.3%), but the odds are stacked against both clubs no matter where you look.
Juan Soto Is Back
The contrarian in me wants to say fiction because, well, he never left. It’s Juan freakin’ Soto we’re talking about here. Even amid his relatively slow start, his world-class batter’s eye was still intact and the underlying numbers suggested such a breakout was coming.
That said, this version of Soto—.346/.564/.615 slash line with two home runs, four RBIs and 10 runs scored in June—certainly seems different than the guy who sleepwalked through the first two months of his Mets tenure. And it’s not just numbers. Soto looks more confident in the box, he’s Soto Shufflin’ again and completely owning the strike zone like he often does at his absolute best.
To pull a line from Jay-Z, Soto’s got his swagger back.
Verdict: Fact
Cubs-Tigers was a World Series preview
The division-leading Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers duked it out in three hard-fought games at Comerica Park, which had a sizzling, playoff-type atmosphere all weekend. Sunday’s rubber game, won 4–0 by the Tigers, was the earliest matchup between two 40-plus win teams since 2004. The Cubs have the best run differential in MLB. The Tigers have the best record in MLB. So we very well could have just been given a sneak peek at the 2025 World Series.
I’m going to pump the brakes for one reason only. The Tigers, armed with a potent lineup and a bulldog ace in Tarik Skubal, should be the favorites to emerge from a weaker American League. But anything can happen in October, especially in the age of three wild cards. I’m as impressed as anyone by the Cubs, who have bludgeoned teams with one of the best offenses in baseball. But I’m just not sold that the Cubs are the best team in the National League, or will be come October. In order for Chicago to make the World Series, they’d have to take out at least one—and likely two—of the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets or Philadelphia Phillies, each of whom is battle-tested from recent postseasons.
If asked to take the Cubs or the field to win the NL, I’ll take the field. For now.
Verdict: Fiction
Cal Raleigh will set a new single-season home run record for catchers
With 26 home runs, Raleigh is already over halfway to Salvador Perez’s mark of 48 homers set in 2021, the single-season record for catchers. He’s also well on pace to surpass Johnny Bench’s positional record of 28 home runs before the All-Star break.
Let’s say Raleigh manages to hit four more home runs in the next month. Of the 43 times a hitter has belted 30 or more before the break, 20 have resulted in 49-homer seasons. So, one could say it’s almost a toss-up as to whether the Mariners backstop will author the greatest power hitting season by a catcher all-time.
Here’s why I’m a bit leery to say he’ll make history. Raleigh plays half of his games in the offense-suppressing T-Mobile Park, which hasn’t been a factor for him this season thanks to his pull-heavy approach—he has 13 dingers both at home and on the road—but has been apparent in home-away splits in his career. Only 47 of his 119 homers have come in Seattle. Plus, Raleigh is riding high with a career-best 28.9% home run/fly ball rate, a statistic that tends to fluctuate greatly over the course of a 162-game season.
Let’s be clear here. Raleigh is the best all-around catcher in baseball. He has a real chance to contend for the AL MVP award if Aaron Judge ever cools off. So even with some normal regression to the mean, Raleigh will breeze to the best power hitting season of his career. But I’m thinking he’ll fall just a bit short of history. Nothing wrong with that.
Verdict: Fiction
The Rockies will break the 2024 White Sox’ loss record
Don’t be fooled by the Rockies’ sweep of the Miami Marlins last week. Miami’s three losses to Colorado were part of a five-game losing streak and a 2-8 stretch in their last 10 games played. In other words, the Rockies benefited from playing the second-worst team in the National League. If only they could be so lucky all the time.
According to ESPN’s Relative Power Index, the Rockies own the fifth-hardest schedule for the remainder of the season. Additionally, in a vote of, er, skepticism, the RPI index’s expected win/loss record for the Rockies is 13–52, or just one win better than their actual record. And they’re not just on pace to lose the most games in modern MLB history—they’re on pace for the most losses in recorded baseball history, a dubious distinction held by the 1899 Cleveland Spiders (20–134).
It’s not hard to see what makes these Rockies far and away MLB’s worst team. No team has scored fewer runs. Only one team, the Oakland Athletics, has allowed more runs. Only one team, the Boston Red Sox, has committed more errors. The Rockies have had four different eight-game losing streaks this season, have been swept 10 times and currently have a -198 run differential. They were the third-quickest team in baseball history to 50 losses. It’s been 126 years, but the miserable Cleveland Spiders may soon have some company in the annals of baseball futility.
More MLB on Sports Illustrated
This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLB Fact or Fiction: Braves, Red Sox Will Both Miss the Playoffs.
