Mississippi State vs Tulsa: Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl prediction and game preview.
Mississippi State vs Tulsa: Armed Forces Bowl Broadcast
Date: Thursday, December 31
Game Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Network: ESPN
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Mississippi State (3-7) vs Tulsa (6-2) Game Preview
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Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Armed Forces Bowl
– Tulsa has been one of the most fun teams of the 2020 college football season. Not only did it shockingly rise up to get to the American Athletic Conference championship game, but every game seemed to have some sense of drama, including losing to Cincinnati on a walk-off field goal in the conference title game. Be shocked if any team this bowl season brings more effort.
– Mississippi State could use something positive to take into the offseason. It’s coming off a blowout win over Missouri, but it’s been a rough first season under Mike Leach. He has only won one of his last four bowl games – all at Washington State – but if the offense works like it’s supposed to, the Bulldogs should be able to open things up and make this fun.
– It’s one of just two Power Five vs. Group of Five matchups in the bowl season – West Virginia vs. Army in the in the AutoZone Liberty sort of counts, too – with Cincinnati vs. Georgia in the Chik-fil-A Peach Bowl the other. The American Athletic Conference has had a rough start to the bowl season – it could use these two wins over the SEC.
Why Mississippi State, Tulsa Will Win
What’s Going to Happen, Prediction, History
NEXT: Why Mississippi State Will Win, Why Tulsa Will Win, Mississippi State vs Tulsa Prediction
Why Mississippi State Will Win
– The Bulldogs might be as close healthy as they’ve been all year. The problems with COVID and other injuries were entirely to blame for the awful 3-7 record and the broader issues overall, but they certainly were a factor. Tulsa is missing its best player – LB Zaven Collins has opted out to get ready for the NFL – and Miss State is close to having all the parts there as possible.
– The offense started to pick it up a bit. A disaster for a good chunk of the year, the Mike Leach attack was able to come up with well over 400 yards in two of the last three games and wasn’t bad against Georgia. Tulsa’s defense is used to dealing with great offenses, but it’s not used to doing enough when it doesn’t control games. Mississippi State should own the time of possession battle by at least five minutes.
– The Mississippi State defense has been good, all things considered. The help hasn’t been there from the offensive side, but the Bulldog defense front has been terrific against the run and good enough at times to take the ball away.
Tulsa has a wee bit of an issue with turnovers, and it has a bigger problem finding a steady passing game. Zach Smith is a solid senior leader, and he connected on enough deep plays to matter, but he only hit 56% of his throws this season
Why Tulsa Will Win
– When this Mississippi State thing is bad, it’s way off. The running game didn’t hit the 100-yard mark until the regular season finale against Missouri, and the passing game that’s supposed to keep everything rolling struggled with its consistency.
Tulsa only game up multiple touchdown passes twice. Mississippi State only threw multiple touchdown passes three times and won two of those games. It went 1-6 when it failed to hit two or more scoring throws.
– Third downs. Mississippi State’s offense is horrible at doing anything on the key down, and Tulsa’s defense is great at coming up with stops. It’s been a key part to the Golden Hurricane season – getting the D off the field. Only East Carolina and Oklahoma State were able to convert more than 38%, and each of them converted exactly 40% of their third down tries.
Mississippi State only converted 32% of the time on third downs – amazingly pathetic for a team built on the short-range passing game.
– Turnovers – Mississippi State can’t stop giving the ball away. The Bulldogs have lost the ball a whopping 25 times, turning it over two times or more in seven games. Tulsa has forced multiple takeaways five times in the eight games. On the other side, the Bulldogs almost need to come up with takeaways to win – 11 of the 16 takeaways came in the three games, and they’re 0-6 when failing to generate more than one turnover.
NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, Mississippi State vs Tulsa Prediction, Armed Forces Bowl History
What’s Going To Happen
It’s snob time.
Mississippi State is badly flawed, it needs a full offseason to get everything Mike Leach wants to do down and working, and …
It’s an SEC team full of SEC players. Tulsa not only isn’t, but it’s missing the guy who’d be the best player on the field in LB Zaven Collins. That’s not the only issue.
A lot of the things that make Tulsa, Tulsa don’t really apply here. The great pass rush and the pressure from the defensive front is all but negated by the Mississippi State offensive style. The Golden Hurricane secondary doesn’t come up with picks – Collins came up with four of the team’s six interceptions – and Mississippi State doesn’t have a huge fumbling problem.
No matter who’s at quarterback – KJ Costello and Will Rogers are listed as co-starters on the Mississippi State depth chart – will do just enough to not be awful, but it’ll be a good day from the Bulldog defense that takes over.
Tulsa will play hard, it’ll have a lead for a stretch, but over the long haul of the game, the SEC talent on the Bulldog lines will hold up and take over.
It won’t be anything pretty, but Mississippi State will take a win no matter how it can get it.
Armed Forces Bowl: Mississippi State vs Tulsa Prediction, Line
Mississippi State 24, Tulsa 20
Bet on Mississippi State vs Tulsa with BetMGM
Tulsa -2.5, o/u: 47
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
– CFN Experts Picks: Armed Forces Bowl
Must See Rating: 3.5
5: New Year’s Day on the couch
1: New Year’s Eve going out
Armed Forces Bowl History
Jan. 4, 2020 Tulane 30, Southern Miss 13
Dec. 22, 2018 Army 70, Houston 14
Dec. 23, 2017 Army 42, San Diego State 35
Dec. 23, 2016 Louisiana Tech 48, Navy 45
Dec. 29, 2015 California 55 Air Force 36
Jan. 2, 2015 Houston 35 Pittsburgh 34
Dec. 30, 2013 Navy 24 Middle Tennessee 6
Dec. 29, 2012 Rice 33 Air Force 14
Dec. 30, 2011 BYU 24 Tulsa 21
Dec. 30, 2010 Army 16 SMU 14
Dec. 31, 2009 Air Force 47 Houston 20
Dec. 31, 2008 Houston 34 Air Force 28
Dec. 31, 2007 California 42 Air Force 36
Dec. 23, 2006 Utah 25 Tulsa 13
Dec. 23, 2005 Kansas 42 Houston 13
Dec. 23, 2004 Cincinnati 32 Marshall 14
Dec. 23, 2003 Boise State 34 TCU 31
