A surge in support for minor political parties since 2004 is attributable more to a collapse in trust in government and rising cultural anxiety in the regions than economic insecurity, according to new research by the Grattan Institute.
With South Australians due to go to the polls this weekend in an election where an insurgency led by the populist Nick Xenophon could reshape the political landscape in the state, the Grattan Institute has examined the underlying factors behind the increase in the minor party vote in Australia over recent election cycles.
The study by Danielle Wood and John Daley indicates the minor party vote in Australia, which hit its highest level since the second world war in the 2016 federal double-dissolution election, is increasing faster in outer metropolitan areas and the regions far from the coastal capitals than in the inner cities.
The study found minor parties have captured a larger share of the total vote over the past five elections, but the distribution of support differs geographically. Between 2004 and 2016 the minor party vote in the cities went from 10% to about 20%. In outer metropolitan areas it’s higher than 30% and in some areas of regional Queensland, it’s between 35% and 45%.
While voters are parting ways with the major parties to support high-profile minor party players, like Xenophon or Pauline Hanson, an array of micro parties attracting less than 3% of the vote in each state is also part of the story.
“These parties have increased their share of first-preference Senate votes from 7.2% in 2004 to 12.5% in 2016,” the researchers write. “This accounts for around one-third of the increase in the minor party vote since 2004.”
The rise of outsiders in politics is a global phenomenon. A common explanation given for the trend is that voters are acting out because of growing inequality or wages stagnation or the negative effects of trade liberalisation in countries where governments have not been active in providing structural adjustment assistance.
But the research by the Grattan Institute indicates there is no concrete evidence in Australia that economic factors are the main drivers in the increase in the minor party vote. “The minor party vote rose most when wages were rising and inequality was flat-lining,” the study notes.
It says the voters defecting to minor parties do not seem energised by boosting the social safety net or by redistributive platforms. But the study acknowledges that rising job insecurity is a factor in the shift, as is cultural anxiety triggered by globalisation.
“Minor party voters are more likely to identify as working class,” the researchers write. “They are also more likely to offer a negative assessment of globalisation and free trade.
“The overall loss of economic and cultural power in the regions looms large in regional dissatisfaction. Regions hold a falling share of Australia’s population and consequently their share of the nation’s economy is shrinking.
“Concerns that the world is changing too fast are higher among regional voters, as are concerns about immigration. But cultural anxiety is not restricted by geography: there are a swathe of minor party voters in the cities and regions who are unhappy with the way the world is changing.
“These voters place more emphasis on tradition and the Australian way of life. The rhetoric and policies of some minor parties tap into these values.”
The authors argue the best way for the parties in government to respond to the rise of outsiders is to formulate policies that respond directly to the declining trust in institutional politics – such as reforming donations and disclosure laws or transparent regulation of lobbyists.
Addressing the growing perception of a divide between the city and the bush is also important. They suggest negative impressions could be addressed by increasing interactions between regional and metropolitan areas, improving services and ensuring that communities disrupted by globalisation are given assistance through economic transitions.
Important, too, is explicitly recognising the positive contributions made by migrants to Australian life, rather than inflaming the cultural divides associated with immigration.
“Politicians should also seek to dampen rather than inflame cultural differences,” the study concludes. “Language and symbols matter in these debates.
“Politicians can take a positive leadership role in stressing the common ground between city and country, and between communities with different backgrounds.”
