Afternoon summary
The UK’s plan to recognise a Palestinian state is compliant with international law, a minister has said, after a group of peers raised concerns that it did not meet the legal bar. As Haroon Siddique writes in an explainer, there are plenty of lawyers who agree with the government, not the peers who wrote the letter. Haroon says:
Philippe Sands KC, a professor of law at University College London, pointed out that in its advisory opinion last year the UN’s top court, the international court of justice (ICJ), recognised “the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, including its right to an independent and sovereign state”.
Sands said: “I have no doubt whatsoever that if it were asked, the ICJ would reject the argument that it is somehow unlawful to recognise the existence of Palestinian statehood. Palestine meets all the legal criteria of statehood; all that remains is a political consideration, namely whether to recognise or not that those criteria are met. The court’s language makes clear that that right exists now, and it exists because all the criteria for statehood are met.”
Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, defended the fact that the government’s plan for recognising Palestinian statehood does not involve firm “conditions” being placed on Hamas, saying the government could not make the decision conditional on what Hamas does because it does not negotiate with terrorist organistions. (See 2.34pm.)
For a full list of all the stories covered on the blog today, do scroll through the list of key event headlines near the top of the blog.
Updated
Mary-Ann Stephenson confirmed as new chair of Equality and Human Rights Commission
Mary-Ann Stephenson, who has been head of the Women’s Budget Group, a feminist economic thinktank, has been confirmed as the new chair of the Equality and Human Rights Commission, the government has announced. She will take up her post on 1 December.
Her appointment was opposed by some transgender groups because in the past she has defended women who have been vilified for their gender critical views.
Reform UK government would have to pour 'nasty medicine' down nation's threat, says thinktank boss advising party
A Reform UK government would have to pour some “nasty medicine” down the throat of the nation, according to the head of a thinktank advising the party.
James Orr, who chairs the advisory board for the Centre for a Better Britain (CBB) thinktank, made the comment in an interview with the BBC. The CBB has close links to Reform, and operates from the same building.
Orr told the BBC:
You’ve got a massive majority [of voters] in favour of cutting taxes, a massive majority in favour of increased public spending, and Reform has not got a magic wand.
But, if Nigel Farage were to take power after the next election, one advantage he would have would be not having to deal with a lot of MPs who had been in parliament before, Orr said.
One of the advantages of having a completely fresh, new parliamentary party is that the leadership will have a great deal more power than Keir Starmer has, even with a majority of 160, and that Kemi Badenoch has over a party of 123.
There will be a honeymoon period, I think, of a year, or two years.
Those first hundred days are going to be absolutely vital to force the nasty cough medicine down the country’s throat.
Number of migrants arriving in small boats this year has passed 25,000, 51% up on same point in 2024, figures show
The number of migrants arriving in the UK after crossing the English Channel has topped 25,000 in record time, PA Media reports. PA says:
Hundreds of foreign nationals have made the journey in recent days, as ministers continue to grapple with the challenge of cracking down on people-smuggling gangs.
Some 898 migrants crossed the Channel in 13 boats on Wednesday, bringing the total in 2025 so far to 25,436, Home Office figures show.
This is up 51% on this point last year (16,842) and 73% higher than at this stage in 2023 (14,732), according to PA news agency analysis.
It is the earliest point in a calendar year at which the 25,000 mark has been passed since data on Channel crossings was first reported in 2018.
Reynolds says Hamas not set Palestinan state recognition 'conditions' because UK won't negotiate with terrorists
When the government announced its Palestinian statehood recognition policy on Tuesday, it included requirements for both Israel and Hamas. But the requirements for Israel were described as “conditions”, and Keir Starmer said, unless they were met, the UK would go ahead with recognition. The demands addressed to Hamas were not described as conditions, and Starmer was not explicit about what would happen if they were not met.
In his interview on the World at One, Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, defended not imposing “conditions” on Hamas, saying the government could not negotiate with a terrorist organistion. He said:
The reason [it has been] presented in that way is because Hamas are a terrorist organisation, and we don’t put conditions on them because we don’t negotiate with terrorists.
We’ve been absolutely clear, it’s our long-standing position, that the hostages have to be released.
It’s also our long-standing position that Hamas can play no role in the future governance of Gaza or any Palestinian state.
So those are absolute conditions, but we will never be willing to negotiate with Hamas because they are a terrorist organisation.
Despite being asked, Reynolds avoided saying if the government would be willing to recognise a Palestinian state if Hamas was still holding hostages in Gaza in September.
Updated
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds says peers arguing Palestinian state recognition unlawful 'missing the point'
In an interview with Radio 4’s the World at One, Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, claimed that peers who argue that Palestinian state recognition would be unlawful are “missing the point”.
After being invited to listen to a clip of Lady Deech explaining the peers’ objections to the plan (see 12.59pm), and asked to respond, Reynolds replied:
I think, to be honest, with respect to those colleagues, that is missing the point somewhat.
What we want to see is not just a ceasefire to the conflict in Gaza, but a genuine peace process, a long-term settlement, and that requires a two state solution.
And we’re trying to use recognition of a Palestinian state … in a way which genuinely moves forward this peace process, deals with short-term issues like getting sufficient aid into Gaza, which is a huge deal, but also sets in place a serious long-term peace process. And that is the objective.
I would ask colleagues to appreciate that and look at the levers the UK has to help deliver something which millions of people around the world are desperate to see.
Portugal joins Canada in moving towards Palestinian state recognition, after Starmer says UK shifting policy too
Other countries are following Starmer in saying this week that they are bringing forward plans to recognise the state of Palestine. The announcements are being made off the back of a UN conference intended to revive support for the two-state solution.
After Starmer announced his move on Tuesday evening, Mark Carney, the Canadian PM, announced that his country intends to formally recognise Palestine during the UN general assembly in September. This is conditional on the Palestinian Authority, the body that governs the occupied West Bank, holding an election in 2026 in which Palestinian militant group Hamas does not play a role, and agreeing to other democratic reforms.
And today the Portuguese government has said it is considering recognising Palestine in September. The AFP news agency says:
The Portuguese government will consult the president and parliament on the question of recognising the state of Palestine at the UN in September, Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s office said Thursday.
Portugal “is considering recognition of the Palestinian state, as part of a procedure that could be concluded during the high-level week of the 80th United Nations general assembly, to be held in New York in September”, the statement said.
And today Germany’s foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, said:
A negotiated two-state solution remains the only path that can offer people on both sides a life in peace, security, and dignity.
For Germany, the recognition of a Palestinian state comes more at the end of that process. But such a process must begin now.
Starmer insists UK 'steadfast' about wanting hostages released, in response to criticism from woman held captive by Hamas
Keir Starmer has ducked a question about claims that recognising the state of Palestine would be contrary to international law.
While a government minister rejected this claim in an interview this morning (see 8.50am), Starmer just gave a generalised answer when asked about the issue in an interview with ITV West Country.
Asked how he would respond to the backlash against his recognition plan, including from senior lawyers saying it would be illegal, Starmer instead focused on giving a response to Emily Damari, the British-Israeli woman held hostage by Hamas, who yesterday accused him of “moral failure”, saying he was rewarding terrorism.
Starmer said:
I particularly listen to the hostages. Emily Damari, who I have spoken to, I’ve met her mother a number of times, and they’ve been through the most awful, awful experience for Emily and for her mother.
And that’s why I’ve been absolutely clear and steadfast that we must have the remaining hostages released. That’s been our position throughout, and I absolutely understand the unimaginable horror that Emily went through.
Alongside that we do need to do everything we can to alleviate the humanitarian catastrophy in Gaza, where we are seeing the children and babies starving for want of aid which could be delivered.
And that is why I’ve said unless things materially change on the ground, we’ll have to assess this in September, we will recognize Palestine before the United Nations general assembly in September.
Government 'must have overlooked' legal arguments against recognising Palestinian state, says Lady Deech
One of the peers who has signed the letter to Lord Hermer, the attorney general, arguing that recognising a Palestinian state would not be compatible with international law, is Lady Deech, an academic lawyer and former head of an Oxford college who now chairs the House of Lords Appointments Commission. In an interview with Sky News, she said Palestinian state recognition “definitely would break the law”. She explained:
The Montevideo Convention has never been challenged. It was based on the existing international law, and it now counts as customary law. And this country is definitely bound by it, as the prime minister must know.
Asked why the government was ignoring this issue, she said: “I think they must have overlooked it.”
Deech said that her main objection to recognition was legal. But she also flagged up other objections. She said that more than 100 countries had already recognised Palestine, “and it’s made no difference on the ground”. She also said that the Palestinians had been offered a state and rejected it “at least four times in the last few decades … going back to 1938, right through to as recently as 2008”.
To coincide with the release of today’s figures about violence in jails (see 10.36am), the Ministry of Justice has announced that it is using AI to address this problem. In a news release it says:
AI will be used across prisons, probation and courts to better track offenders and assess the risk they pose with tools that can predict violence behind bars, uncover secret messages sent by prisoners and connect offender records across different systems.
The AI violence predictor analyses different factors such as a prisoner’s age and previous involvement in violent incidents while in custody. This will help prison officers assess threat levels on wings and intervene or move prisoners before violence escalates.
Another AI tool will be able to digitally scan the contents of mobile phones seized from prisoners to rapidly flag messages that could provide intelligence on potential crimes being committed behind bars, such as secret code words.
Nine out of 10 nurses in England, Wales and Northern Ireland reject pay award
Nine out of 10 nurses have rejected their 3.6% pay award for this year and warned that they could strike later this year unless their salaries are improved, Denis Campbell reports.
Almost 50% of prisons in England and Wales fail to get good performance rating, MoJ figures show
The Ministry of Justice has also published performance figures for prisons in England and Wales for 2024/25. They show that around half of them are rated as having performance either concern or serious concern.
The figures show 22 prisons (18.5%) rated as of serious concern – the worst rating. This is the highest figure for almost a decade.
There are also 37 prisons whose performance is of concern. That means 59 prisons (49.6%) were in the bottom two categories in 2024/25, up from 42% in the previous year.
The MoJ says the increase reflects the fact prisons faced “significant capacity pressures” over the past year.
Farage restates opposition to Online Safety Act - but admits he does not have 'tech answer' to protecting children online
Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has called for a “tech answer” to protecting children online – while admitting that he does not know what it is.
On Monday he said his party would repeal the Online Safety Act, arguing that rather than protecting children, as the government claims, it will expose them to more danger online because they will use VPNs to get round age verification checks.
In a phone-in on LBC this morning, Farage was confronted by George Nicolaou, who said the law was a “matter of life and death” for famillies. Nicolaou’s teenage son died after being plagued with “horrific” messages online.
Farage replied:
If age verification of itself was able to prevent incidents and tragedies like this, I would, George, 100% support it. But the problem is it doesn’t, because of the VPN route.”
VPNs, or virtual private networks, can enable internet users to circumvent the new rules, by masking a user’s digital identity.
Farage went on:
There has to be a tech answer around this. I don’t know what it is, certainly the government doesn’t know what it is, but there has to be a tech answer of some kind, and we need to try and find it.
We’re talking about, how do we protect young people? How do we stop them accessing dangerous, violent content, or worse?
Updated
Earlier I said that there were two main objections to Keir Starmer’s Palestinian state recognition plan (ineffectiveness, and rewarding terror), with a third added today (potential unlawfulness). See 8.50am. I should have made it clear that those are the objections from the anti-recognition side.
As we reported on Tuesday, there are also strong objections from pro-Palestine campaigners who want Starmer to be far more committed to recognition, and who do not believe it should be conditional on what Israel does.
The Palestine Solidarity Campaign is in this camp. Here is an extract from their statement on Starmer’s decision.
Keir Starmer, who refuses even to recognise that Israel is violating international law in Gaza, is offering to recognise a Palestinian state if, and only if, Israel’s starvation and atrocities are still ongoing in two months’ time. If not, what is now being presented as a step towards recognising the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination will be rescinded. His grotesque message to Palestinians is that state recognition may come, but only if and when many, many more of you are dead.
Despite Starmer’s attempt to represent his statements on Tuesday as a turning point, it is abundantly clear to all that it is simply more of the same, but with the possibility of conditional Palestinian statehood in September added to the package of collusion and complicity with genocide.
The PSC statement sets out its full campaign objectives, including a comprehensive arms embargo and sanctions on the entire Israeli government.
Updated
Prisons in England and Wales becoming more violent, MoJ figures show
Prisons in England and Wales have become more violent over the past year, figures published by the Ministry of Justice show.
The safety in custody statistics show:
Assaults in jail were up 9% in the 12 months ending March 2025, reaching 356 assaults per 1,000 prisoners (30,846 assaults). But in the most recent quarter, the rate of assaults was unchanged.
Assaults on staff in jail were up 7% in the 12 months ending March 2025, reaching 122 assaults per 1,000 prisoners (10,568 assaults on staff). But in the most recent quarter, they were down 2.5%.
The rate of serious assaults in jails was up 6% in the 12 months ending March 2025, reaching 39 serious assaults per 1,000 prisoners (3,402 incidents). These figures include serious prisoner-on-prisoner assaults (up 8%) and serious assaults on staff (down 2%).
There were seven homicides in jails in the 12 months ending June 2025, up from none in the previous 12 months.
Transport secretary Heidi Alexander transport secretary to meet air traffic control boss after flight disruption
Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, will meet the boss of the UK’s airspace controller today to discuss the 20-minute failure of computer systems that led to widespread disruption yesterday, Jasper Jolly reports. He has more on his business live blog.
Former Tory attorney general suggests recognising Palestinian state could be face judicial review legal challenge
Michael Ellis, the former Tory attorney general, has claimed that a decision to recognise the state of Palestine could be challenged in the courts under the judicial review process.
Ellis is reportedly one of the lawyers who have signed the letter to Lord Hermer, the attorney general, saying recognising Palestinian statehood would be contrary to international law (see 8.50am) and he told Times Radio that it was “hypocritical” of Keir Starmer to international law considerations on this matter, while stressing the importance of upholding international law in other situations.
Ellis said:
Keir Starmer, as prime minister, has repeatedly said that he would adhere to international law. And he’s gone further than that. He’s taken, you might think, a high moral tone …
He’s said that international law goes absolutely to the heart of his foreign policy. He even went so far as to say – and I think it was pretty rash for him to do so – but he said some time ago that a selective pick and mix approach to international law will lead to its disintegration. He said that the criteria set out in international law should not be manipulated for reasons of political expedience. So those are things that he said …
It’s not fine to be hypocritical about that and to say we’re going to follow international law … when it suits him.
Ellis said that, when Starmer decided to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, he argued that this was necessary because the UK had to comply with international law – even though the relevant international court ruling was only advisory. But recognising a Palestinian state would be contrary to international law, he claimed.
He added:
If they’re not careful, we could even be talking about judicial review territory here.
Updated
Recognising Palestine as state ultimately 'a political judgment', says business minister Gareth Thomas
Although Gareth Thomes, the business minister speaking for the government on the morning interview round, said the government did regard recognising a Palestinian state as lawful (see 8.50am), he also argued that ultimately this was a political judgment. He told Times Radio:
In the end, recognition of another state is a political judgment and over 140 countries have already recognised Palestine, and we’re determined to do so in September if Israel does not end the violence in Gaza, agree to a ceasefire and agree to a lasting route towards a two-state solution, and to no annexation in the West Bank.
What peers have said about how recognising state of Palestine would be 'contrary to international law'
In its report, the Times has published quotes from the letter sent by 40 peers to Lord Hermer, the attorney general, arguing that recognising the state of Palestine would be contrary to international law. The peers tell Hermer:
We call on you to advise him [Starmer] that this would be contrary to international law.
You are on record as saying that a commitment to international law goes absolutely to the heart of this government and its approach to foreign policy.
You have said that a selective ‘pick and mix’ approach to international law will lead to its disintegration, and that the criteria set out in international law should not be manipulated for reasons of political expedience.
Accordingly, we expect you to demonstrate this commitment by explaining to the public and to the government that recognition of Palestine would be contrary to the principles governing recognition of states in international law. We look forward to your response.
Minister dismisses claims that recognising Palestinian state risks breaching international law
Good morning. Keir Starmer has been widely criticised for his announcement on Tuesday that the UK will recognise a Palestinian state unless Israel agrees a ceasefire in Gaza and commits to the two-state solution (which Benjamin Netanyahu’s government does not support). There have been two main objections. The Tories, and others, are mostly dismissing this as pointless, a gesture that will appease Labour MPs without having any practical, positive impact for Palestinians. The other line of attack argues that the move will have an impact, because it will reward Hamas for their attack on Israel, and incentivise them not to make peace or release the remaining hostages. This is what the Israeli government is saying, but the person who has made this argument most forcefully is Emily Damari, a British-Israeli woman held hostage by Hamas for more than a year. Her words have provided the Daily Mail with its splash.
Today the decision is under fire on a third front. According to a story by Matt Dathan, Ali Mitib and Geraldine Scott on the Times front page, the move may unlawful. They say 40 members of the House of Lords have put this point to Lord Hermer, the attorney general, in a letter. They report:
Some of Britain’s most prominent lawyers have warned Sir Keir Starmer that his government’s pledge to recognise a Palestinian state risks breaking international law.
Their intervention, signed by 40 members of the House of Lords, said a Palestinian state would not meet the criteria for recognition as set out under the Montevideo Convention, a treaty signed in 1933 …
The signatories point out that Starmer’s pledge risked undermining the government’s commitment that international law goes “absolutely to the heart” of its foreign policy.
Under the Montevideo Convention, to qualify for statehood under international law, a state must have a permanent population, a defined territory, a government and the capacity to enter into relations with other states. The peers say that arguably Palestine does not meet any of these four conditions.
According to the Times, the signatories include seven KCs, including Lord Pannick, Lord Collins of Mapesbury, a former supreme court judge, former Tory ministers including Eric Pickles and Andrew Lansley, and Arlene Foster, the former DUP leader.
Thursday's TIMES: Palestine vow breaks law, claim top lawyers#TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/KLtGTW6NPE
— Jack Surfleet (@jacksurfleet) July 30, 2025
Keir Starmer is speaking the media later today, but Gareth Thomas, the business minister, has been doing the interview round this morning and he told Times Radio that the government thinks recognising a Palestinian state would be compliant with international law. He explained:
We haven’t signed up to the Montevideo Convention, but is there a clear population in Palestine? Yes, there is in Gaza and the West Bank.
We have made clear that we think you would recognise the state of Palestine, and that state of Palestine would be based on the 1967 borders.
Of course, there would have to be land swaps and there would be a shared capital of Jerusalem. They are well-regarded international views.
As I say, 140 other countries have already recognised the state of Palestine. The prime minister was in talks this week with a series of countries, including Canada, and Canada have overnight, as you will have seen, taken the decision to recognise Palestine in September.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: The Ministry of Justice publishes figures covering prison numbers, and assaults, deaths and self-harm in jails.
11am: Mourners attend the funeral of Norman Tebbit at St Edmundsbury Cathedral in Bury St Edmunds.
Morning: Keir Starmer and Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, are on a visit in the south-west of England to promote plans to penalise firms that pay their suppliers late. They are due to give media interviews.
Also, at some point today, Heathrow Airport will submit its third runway plans to the government.
If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (normally between 10am and 3pm at the moment), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
Updated
