A few short months ago Max Verstappen’s world championship defence appeared to be over. But when he took the flag in the US Grand Prix on Sunday it heralded the most remarkable resurgence as he waded with a gleeful swagger back into the title fight. Verstappen was down but he is far from out and could yet still pull off what would count as his greatest triumph.
Going into the weekend in Austin, Verstappen was still treating the idea of him being a contender against the two lead protagonists, McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, with a certain indifferent levity.
“It’s 50-50. You either win it, or you don’t. I don’t really think about it,” he said. He was then still 55 points behind Piastri. After his comprehensive, dominant win at the Circuit of the Americas the gap was down to 40 and Verstappen acknowledged he was definitely in the game.
From 104 points down after the Dutch Grand Prix, in four meetings, three of which he has won, Verstappen has taken 64 points out of Piastri’s lead. On the evidence of those four races – Monza, Baku, Singapore and Austin – his Red Bull car is now the quickest in the field or at very least on a par with the previously dominant McLaren.
He has won on every type of track, including crucially in Austin on a traditional circuit, indeed one with high tyre wear, of the type where McLaren has held the whip hand all season. On this showing the final five races, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, will hold no fear for Verstappen.
His belief is in part down to the impressive job Red Bull have done in turning round the car, which the Dutchman found all but undriveable with its lack of balance and unpredictable handling for more than half the season, into another all-round race winner. The upgraded floor and front wing they brought to these latter races, which was a gamble by Red Bull in maintaining development after McLaren had long since shifted their resources to the 2026 car, proved inspired. Verstappen is never more formidable than when he has the ride he feels beneath him and the RB21 is now far closer to being that car.
Five meetings remain, including two sprint races, and on this form Verstappen knows he has what it takes to potentially win them all. Mathematically that might still not be enough. A one-two over Piastri in all the remaining races (including sprints) would still leave him three points short but it must be noted that Piastri has not finished higher than third since the Dutch Grand Prix. However there are more factors at play than mere numbers.
Most importantly there is how McLaren deal with this looming threat. Their efforts to be fair to both drivers and let them race all season have been laudable – and understandable when they had a huge advantage. That has now gone, as has the lead it amassed. In the process Piastri and Norris have taken points off each other and McLaren have intervened on occasion to try to ensure a scrupulous equity to both drivers – a luxury they can perhaps ill-afford with Verstappen steaming up in their wake.
The McLaren team principal, Andrea Stella, said the team and his drivers needed to stay calm after Austin and that, by sticking to their plans and procedures, results would come. However he also acknowledged they would favour one driver when the situation demanded it.
Intriguingly, then, the pressure is now all on McLaren. Verstappen, by contrast, has nothing to lose. There would be no shame in not winning after his season thus far, but he is Red Bull’s No 1 driver with all the experience of closing out at the sharp end of a tight championship fight.
The numbers do still favour Piastri and Norris – who trails his teammate by just 14 points – but those can be overturned until the final chequered flag, as McLaren and Stella know only too well. In 2007 their drivers Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso went blow for blow all season, while being stalked by Kimi Räikkönen in the Ferrari, where Stella was his performance engineer.
Räikkönen went into the final race of the season in Brazil in third place on 100 points, with Hamilton on 107 and Alonso on 103. In a gripping finale Hamilton suffered with a gearbox problem, Räikkönen won, his third victory from the final four races, and with this late charge took the title by one point. It was only the second time a driver had come back from third in the championship at the season finale to take the title since Giuseppe Farina had done so in the inaugural F1 season in 1950.
Next weekend the fight will resume at the Mexican Grand Prix, the scene of an equally compelling three-way title decider in 1964 when John Surtees, Graham Hill and Jim Clark all vied for the honours. Like Verstappen, Surtees had also endured a slow start to the season but made history when he emerged on top. There is every reason to believe Verstappen will be in the mix in Mexico – and for his fifth title come Abu Dhabi in December.
