Ivorians are heading to the polls on Saturday in one of the most watched presidential elections in West Africa. Incumbent Alassane Ouattara is seeking to defeat four other candidates to secure a fourth term – though key opposition figures are not on the ballot.
Nearly 8.7 million voters are expected to elect the next president of Côte d'Ivoire, a country of 32 million and the region's most dynamic economy.
Ouattara, 83, has been in power since 2011. Facing him are four challengers, mostly political outsiders – apart from Simone Gbagbo, ex-wife of former president Laurent Gbagbo.
Commerce minister and businessman Jean-Louis Billon is the youngest candidate at 60. Two women are competing to become the country's first female president: former first lady Gbagbo, 76, and Henriette Lagou, 66, a women's rights campaigner who stood unsuccessfully in 2015.
Civil engineer and former minister Ahoua Don Mello, 67, is the fifth candidate, running as an independent.
Women march into the fray but power still lags in Côte d’Ivoire
Opposition candidates excluded
Côte d'Ivoire's most prominent opposition politicians, however, are not in the race. Former president Laurent Gbagbo was barred from standing, as was former international banker Tidjane Thiam, the candidate of one of the country's main political parties, the PDCI-RDA.
The constitutional council eliminated them on the grounds they had been removed from the electoral roll – Thiam because of nationality-related legal issues stemming from him acquiring French citizenship, and Gbagbo for a criminal conviction.
Their absence added to a tense political climate, with their supporters calling for protests and the authorities banning rallies on the grounds of public safety.
None of the remaining four candidates seeking to unseat Ouattara represents an established party – unlike the president, who heads the ruling RHDP.
Major security deployment
Some 44,000 security forces have been deployed nationwide in the run-up to the vote.
Three people died over the past few weeks and more than 700 were arrested as marches were quashed. Around 30 people were sentenced to three years in prison for disturbing public order.
The authorities said they did not want to see a repeat of the election unrest of 2020, when 85 people died.
Ouattara himself came to power after a violent crisis followed the 2010 contest. More than 3,000 people were killed in clashes between his supporters and those of Gbagbo, who ruled for a decade before him.
Why Côte d’Ivoire’s election could be more complex than it seems
Regional loyalties
Turnout is a crucial issue, with analysts saying it could follow regional lines.
Ouattara's traditional stronghold is in the north, while southern and western regions are home to groups that historically supported Gbagbo or the PDCI.
"Since the end of one-party rule in 1990 and the rise of multipartyism, the political debate in Côte d'Ivoire has begun to tribalise," says historian Hyacinthe Bley of Félix Houphouët-Boigny University in Abidjan.
This has led to tensions, even a coup in 1999 and a civil war after the 2010 election.
"The country is still divided between the north and the south," Bley told RFI, "and no one has forgotten the violence of the war of 2010 to 2011. The presidential election of 2015 was more peaceful, but the reconciliation is still not complete."
Young voters in Côte d'Ivoire want jobs, change – but most of all, peace
According to Bley, people in Côte d'Ivoire still vote for a person rather than a party, which makes the absence of opposition heavyweights significant.
"The absence of the two main opponents will demobilise a significant portion of the electorate, and so far we haven't seen a significant shift behind a candidate," William Assanvo, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, told AFP news agency.
If no one wins a majority in Saturday's vote, the election will go to a second round between the two top candidates.
(with AFP)
