Arsenal have stormed up the league since their 5-0 defeat at the Etihad at the end of August. Sitting on the same amount of points as West Ham United in fourth, the Gunners have added significant quality to their side which has considerably lowered the average age of the starting eleven.
Bernd Leno was replaced with 23-year-old Aaron Ramsdale. Arsenal’s ageing right-back Cedric Soares was replaced by 22-year-old Takehiro Tomiyasu. Then 23-year-old Ben White has come in for Rob Holding. Plus, Arsenal signed two 21-year-olds Nuno Tavares and Sambi Lokonga who are playing frequently in place of Kieran Tierney and Granit Xhaka – granted in part due to injury. 22-year-old Martin Odegaard also returned to add to the 23-year-old Grabriel Magalhaes who was signed in 2020.
Despite the inexperience of the players and manager Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have shown much improvement on last season and the start of this.
Arteta appears to be developing something with the view to the long-term and recent research into the prime years of players may have opened the door as to the reasons behind the changes.
The football analytics channel Tifo recently produced an insightful video in partnership with The Athletic looking into the peak ages for players in different positions on the field.
Using the metric of minutes played analysing thousands of players across the last decade, age ranges of peak performance years for eleven roles on the field from goalkeeper to striker were calculated.
The choice of minutes played as the determining statistic was chosen by considering how players develop, peak and eventually drop away as they get closer to retirement age. Playing more minutes during their best years and less at the start and end of their careers.
For Arsenal, their current starting eleven's ages for the most part sit well below these determined peak years. Were we to fast forward two years and Arteta would begin to see the squad he is building reach the ultimate performance levels of their careers.
The peaks, as shown by the three-year range, tend to last for an extended period of time where players are operating at their best for several seasons.
Should Mikel Arteta look to integrate a replacement striker, for the sake of avoiding transfer speculation, in the predicted line-up, Folarin Balogun replaces the out of contract Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
The graphic shows that Arsenal would still have nine of their first eleven at least one year off the estimated peak age for their positions. Aaron Ramsdale, Emile Smith-Rowe, Bukayo Saka and Balogun would still be two years away emphasising his current quality.
Takehiro Tomiyasu and Kieran Tierney, the latter of which is a likely inclusion at left-back over Nuno Tavares, would both be in their prime years for the full-back role. Thomas Partey however would at this point be nearly four years past his estimated best.
It is interesting that the previous perception of peak age was around the 27 to 28 mark. Whereas the new evidence suggests peak age occurs at much younger ages, especially at full-back and central midfield.
Should Mikel Arteta’s side achieve a top-four place this year and exceed expectations, the possible future potential of this side could be frightening. This before even taking into account any possible notable additions in upcoming transfer windows. Exciting times ahead.
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