According to an Ipsos/Mori poll, 78% of voters say the outcome of the election is important to them personally.
The same question has been asked at other recent elections and this response at this stage of a campaign was only exceeded in 1992, when the numbers voting reached a record level.
Clearly a combination of the TV debates and the hard-to-predict outcome is adding to public interest and prompts me to return again to turnout betting.
My forecast is that it will be considerably higher than the 61% of 2005 and could, perhaps, exceed 70%. Bet365 and SkyBet offer 5-2 against that option while Ladbrokes have tightened their price to 9-4. A safer bet, but at a shorter price, is the 11–10 that SkyBet have against it being more than 67.5%.
Mike Smithson blogs at politicalbetting.com
