One of the big messages from the polls in recent months has been how well the Labour vote is holding up in Scotland. Aggregated data from last week's YouGov poll had Labour only one point down in Scotland compared with the 2005 general election. The same survey also had the Liberal Democrats performing poorly north of the border, down 7% on the last general election.
So a good bet could be that Labour will win back Dunfermline and West Fife, the seat lost to the Liberal Democrats in a February 2006 byelection. It is going to be a tough fight and the byelection winner, Willie Rennie, is a seasoned campaigner. This part of Fife, however, is very much Gordon Brown's home territory and Labour had a spectacular victory at nearby Glenrothes in November 2008. Totesport, PaddyPower and William Hill all have Labour at 10-11 which looks like a good price.
Mike Smithson blogs at politicalbetting.com
