Until now I have avoided the big question of what will be the outcome: a Conservative majority government or a hung parliament. This is so tight that the betting markets have been oscillating between one and the other with each new opinion poll.
My view now is that the challenge facing the Tories is just too great and that they will fall short of the required 326 seats. The reason: they are going to find it hard in encounters with the Liberal Democrats. Not only are they likely to finish up almost empty-handed in the battle for current Lib Dem seats but they could lose seats to Nick Clegg's party.
On top of that they are going to find it hard going in the three-way marginals. Every seat not won in these encounters means that they need to make more gains from Labour.
The odds are changing all the time and I suggest checking out one of the odds comparison sites such as Bestbetting to find the best value.
Mike Smithson is the founder and editor of politicalbetting.com
