PHILADELPHIA _ Daniel Skillings, from Sicklerville, N.J., is not a late bloomer. He's a bloomer, a high school basketball player ready to show off his skills, now. Best kept secret in South Jersey, according to one of his AAU coaches.
"This was going to be a big, big, big summer for me," Skillings said over the phone.
Instead ... quarantine life.
"I have two basketballs," Skillings said. "I'm dribbling a lot."
Skillings is Class of 2022 at St. Joseph, a 6-foot-5 forward at a program on the rise, and part of the Philly Pride AAU program. There's still time for him. It's just that in a normal recruiting cycle, when there isn't a global coronavirus shutting down life and sports, the summer after a sophomore year is a prime opportunity to show off your maturation.
"It hurts bad," Skillings said. "Atlanta, Vegas ... all the live events. Big moment in my life."
The pause right now, where college coaches aren't allowed to watch live events through the end of May, with the rest of the summer in limbo, means a pause for all levels of recruiting. The ramifications are vast, the trickle-down impact immense. If you think the NCAA transfer portal is busy now, wait a couple of years. A missed year of recruiting won't make evaluations more precise, which probably means more flux down the road.
Interviews across the hoops spectrum show the adjustments that have been made from all sides, but you can make all the adjustments you want, it doesn't change the fact that courts are now empty. Recruiters can't start at the beginning, watching players play live.
When might that happen again?
"The NCAA has always tilted towards the word scholastic," said Norm Eavenson, of West Chester, Pa., who has been a top local recruiting evaluator for more than three decades, and has many college clients subscribing to his service. "AAU is non-scholastic. They're more worried about whether there's going to be football in the fall than anything. The sooner they can wipe their hands off anything in June, July and August, they will."
Eavenson isn't putting the onus all on the NCAA.
"What building operator is going to let people in?" Eavenson said. "What venue is going to open up for these events?"
From a liability standpoint?
"Absolutely," Eavenson said. "Absolutely."
The events Eavenson is referring to include the whole pyramid of recruiting. The real blue-chippers are mostly identified, and will have a choice of big-time destinations, no different than usual. What, Eavenson asked, about the high school junior who shows a Patriot League school he can handle real competition at a Hoop Group event? What happens without that kind of showcase?
Even the blue-chippers can be impacted. Amauro Austin, the head of Philly Pride AAU, pointed to his top 2021 player, Stevie Mitchell, MVP of last summer's Under Armour circuit. Mitchell has offers from most of the Pennsylvania schools, on out to programs such as Stanford.
"College coaches know," Austin said. "There are still some guys who wanted to see more. Like the last two national champions have been in. Neither has offered."
He meant Virginia and Villanova. Austin noted that while Villanova assistants had seen Mitchell live, Villanova has a process it follows, and Jay Wright hadn't gotten a chance to see Mitchell before play was stopped.
Observation isn't just about play on the court, and coaches will tell you they are reluctant to go just on word of mouth.
"How do they relate to their teammates, interactions with their coaches?" said Temple coach Aaron McKie. "Those are the things you want to see. Are they coachable? Do they have a motor? High character?"
"You stand side-by-side and size a kid up to see true height, weight (muscle or fat), and reach," said West Chester coach Damien Blair. "You can't judge quickness, speed, skill set, or toughness. You can't judge a handshake, eye contact, or if the recruit's personality meshes with your current players."
"Spring AAU is a good time for us to steal a player who might have fallen to our level or risen," said Wagner assistant Bobby Jordan, who used to be a Drexel assistant. "Now you need to depend on relationships more than evaluations on players."
It's sometimes hard for players, Rider assistant Geoff Arnold noted, because Power 5 schools "might put the hook out there a little bit," expressing interest, so those schools have backups in case prime targets go elsewhere. It's hard for recruits to let go of that big-time interest, even if there's no offer. "Everyone does it," Arnold said.
"A possible plus in all this, let's say a school really, really likes a kid who hasn't gotten a lot of attention yet," said Eavenson, the talent evaluator. "Let's say they're right. ... There's nothing more aggravating to recruit a good player and then someone swoops in after 18 months."
Right now, Blair said, a recruit should "create a narrative for yourself. Ask some of the local scouts, coaches and evaluators to promote you to college coaches. Don't sit at home and wait to be recruited. Be creative, advocate for yourself, and start recruiting the program that fits your personality and style of play."
Some coaches plead for nuance, though. Don't reveal yourself as that annoying parent.
"What you shouldn't be doing is having you or your parents send emails every day to coaches," Jordan of Wagner said. "These films and bios of a player need to come from a coach. We will look at it more seriously."
