Nov. 14--Morale has been low here at HQ, and I think I know why.
The sometimes weekly picks blog is jonesing for an underdog.
Nothing gives us more joy than identifying the big upset, or in the case of the greatest night in picks blog history, going 5-for-5 on four upset specials in the sectional semifinals last winter.
But that was basketball. Let's talk football while the sport still exists.
Class 8A
No. 5 Brother Rice (10-1) at No. 13 Palatine (9-2): Sufficiently dulled by one safe pick after another, the voices in my head started making a case for Palatine in the Pirates' Class 8A quarterfinal home game against Brother Rice.
That, there, has the look of a team peaking as they were speaking, and quite a statement the 41 points Palatine put up against Oak Park-River Forest in a second-round upset last week.
Questions about Brother Rice's defense, meanwhile, seem valid after the Crusaders slipped past South Elgin 34-28.
Before we pulled the trigger, we reminded ourselves the one thing we enjoy more than sniffing out an upset: being right.
Being right means respecting the percentages. Not necessarily always following them, mind you, but refusing to ignore them when they jump off the page.
For instance, Palatine's conference, the Mid-Suburban West, has not had a single state semifinalist this century.
We repeat, this century.
Schaumburg's 6A runner-up team in 1999 was the last one from the MSL West to so much as reach the semifinals.
The Catholic Blue has sent 30 teams to the state semifinals since then, an average of two per year
Brother Rice was responsible for just one of those visits, but the Crusaders were the second-place team in the Catholic Blue, which history says makes them a state semifinalist.
A Palatine win would be huge for MSL pride, but what would really help the league would be a schedule upgrade. The West has been beating up on the MSL East in crossover games rather than improving by playing better competition, though that will change next year because the East finally had enough.
A new agreement to play crossover games with the CSL should help, though probably not to the extent taking on teams in the power conferences who are always looking for games would.
Anyway, history says Palatine is a 30-1 shot against Brother Rice. If anyone actually wants to offer those odds, please send me a private message.
Otherwise, and to the dismay of the voices in my head, it's Brother Rice 41, Palatine 35.
No. 8 Homewood-Flossmoor (10-1) at No. 1 Loyola (11-0): Are these possibly all-time great teams? Or am I a victim of the moment? Do high school and college teams have to be undefeated to be considered among the best ever? I suppose I lean toward maybe, probably and yes. But I am sure I've never seen an offense with as many home-run hitters as H-F's, and that Loyola's first 11 games were as dominant as I've ever seen against good competition. I'm fairly certain Loyola will come up with a plan, and execute said plan, to at least slow down the Vikings. But what about the Loyola offense against an H-F defense that has played some really good games but has only really been tested a couple times? Loyola 31-28
No. 23 Marist (7-4) at No. 15 Oswego (9-2): Marist went up against good quarterbacks in each of the first two rounds, allowing just 14 points to Tyler Tsagalis and Notre Dame and 56 to Johnny Davidson and Barrington. Next up is Steven Frank, whose Division I size and Division I arm strength has added up to Division I offers. Eventually, Brendan Skalitzky and the Marist offense will be stopped in a situation where they absolutely need to score. Maybe next week. Marist 44-42
No. 6 Naperville Central (10-1) at No. 30 Waubonsie Valley (7-4): They played once already and Waubonsie Valley won 15-14. I saw Waubonsie in its 28-7 loss at Neuqua Valley and Naperville Central's decisive Week 9 win at Lake Park, so it's hard for me to reconcile the head-to-head result. This time, the winner is the last DVC team standing, and since I'm having a hard enough time believing Waubonsie beat Naperville Central the first time... Naperville Central 24-14
Class 7A
No. 1 Glenbard West (11-0) at No. 9 Rockford Auburn (10-1): It's a good time to catch Glenbard West, a week after a blood-sweat-and-tears victory over Mount Carmel that was clearly meaningful to the "Hitters" as a program. But this doesn't strike me as a team that will show up and go through the motions. They're good, but not that good, and they've probably spent the week being reminded of just that. Glenbard West 34-14
No. 5 Cary-Grove (10-1) at Batavia (10-1): These programs have a lot in common. Top-notch coaching, great community support, a whole lot of success. Both are also recent state champions, both in 6A. Cary-Grove proved it could play with anyone in any class last year, ultimately falling just short against Providence in a classic 7A title game. That team graduated 19 starting spots, but the new Trojans look a lot like the old ones. Batavia gave Mount Carmel all it could handle in a first-round 7A loss last year, then left no doubt it belonged by dominating Simeon last week. Cary-Grove is a favorite of the sometimes-weekly picks blog, but Batavia looked awfully good last week. Batavia 28-27
No. 31 Niles North (7-4) at No. 23 Bradley-Bourbonnais (8-3): Speaking of favorites here at HQ, we had Niles North pegged for the quarterfinals as soon as the brackets were released, and here Barrington Wade and the Vikings are. Is this where the greatest playoff run in school history ends? Bradley isn't unbeatable, and they had similar games against a common opponent, Glenbrook North, though Bradley won 60-59 in double overtime and Niles North lost 34-30 despite a 13-point halftime lead. We tend to go with the stronger conference, which favors Bradley and the Southwest Suburban Red with its three quarterfinalists. But sometimes you just gotta stand by your Vikings. Niles North 43-40
No. 6 Normal Community (10-1) at No. 3 Libertyville (11-0): Libertyville got just what it needed last week, a competitive game against a good team that wasn't intimidated and wouldn't go away. Normal's confidence has to be in place after beating Maine South, but this game on the road is a far greater challenge. Libertyville 34-18
Mike Helfgot is a freelance reporter for the Chicago Tribune.
