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Mike Helfgot

Mike Helfgot's blog: Class 4A regional finals present a chance for upsets

March 05--For every "Godfather II," there's a "Caddyshack II," "Hangover II" and any number of other sequels that should not have been made.

Here we are on the anniversary of the sometimes-weekly picks blog's masterpiece, a seemingly impossible 5-for-5 upset special tour-de-force in the 2015 Class 4A regional final round. I might have mentioned it before.

Do I have a "Rocky II" up my sleeve? Or am I risking a "Police Academy 2," et al.? (I stand by the original even if I haven't seen it since I was like 12. That guy making those noises was funny.)

We've decided here at HQ the conditions are not currently right for a repeat performace. We may revisit the idea next year.

Right now, there just aren't enough clear favorites to call losses by higher seeds upsets.

There's been a big gap between the top six or so teams and everyone else all season, and the next tier has probably between two and three dozen teams all capable of beating one another.

Thornton-Bloom, perhaps the game of the night, is a perfect example.

Thornton is the No. 2 seed with a 19-game winning streak on its resume. Bloom, the No. 7 seed, is the hotter team with a recent victory against Thornton at Thornton.

It can't be an upset if Bloom does it again, say, 68-65.

Here's a few more picks I will not brag about for the next year.

St. Rita (13-18) at Marian Catholic (22-5): I choose this one because I was going to pick St. Rita and take back my promise in the previous sentence. Then I noticed what Marian has been doing defensively with all those 6-5, 6-6, 6-7 guys: Preventing points. Richards scored just 24 in the regional semifinals, and Marian allowed 31, 37, 42 and 35 in its previous four. Will it translate against Simeon in the sectional? Marian 52-47.

Glenbard West (24-3) at Hinsdale Central (17-10): Glenbard West is in the same regional as all three teams it lost to. The Hilltoppers won their rubber match with Proviso West decisively the other night, but this one is a road game in a place they lost by 10 three weeks ago. Hinsdale Central has won eight in a row since its 64-52 loss to Glenbard West in late January, including a double-overitme victory against a good Wheaton North team on Wednesday night. It's a 2 vs. 10 matchup by seeds, but a toss-up otherwise. Glenbard West 58-57.

Batavia (20-9) at St. Charles East (16-12) : Batavia won the Upstate Eight River while St. Charles East finished tied for second with Geneva, and Batavia is seeded second in the Sub-Section A of the Rockford Sectional (seriously) while St. Charles East is seeded fifth. Yet a strong case could be made that East is actually the favorite here, on its home court and with James McQuillan on the floor. His first start following an early foot injury came in East's 50-40 against Batavia less than two weeks ago, and while he scored just two points in the Saints' 48-45 vicotry against Geneva in the regional semifinals, the four-year varsity performer's veteran presence will be instrumental. St. Charles East 59-55.

Mike Helfgot is a freelance reporter for the Chicago Tribune.

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