The United States is experiencing a demographic shift not seen in decades due to the Trump administration's aggressive crackdown on immigration.
A new report from the Pew Research Center shows that the U.S. immigrant population is shrinking just months after reaching a record high. Experts attribute the decline to immigration policy changes implemented under both the Biden and Trump administrations.
This marks the first decline in U.S. immigrant population since the 1960s. Since January, the number of immigrants has dropped by more than 1 million, falling from 53.3 million to 51.9 million in just six months.
One of the areas most affected by this trend is the labor force, which has lost more than 750,000 workers since the beginning of the year.
That figure is echoed in a report released last week by Economic Insights and Research Consulting, which estimates the U.S. workforce has declined by as many as 1.2 million foreign-born workers since January 2025. The report links the labor shortage to rising prices for goods and services, along with widespread staffing gaps across several major industries.
Although the U.S. Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) does not identify the exact causes of the decline, Pew researchers say it is likely driven by a decrease in the number of unauthorized immigrants working in the country.
Deportations have ramped up under the Trump administration, and many undocumented immigrants — along with those on temporary or vulnerable legal statuses — have voluntarily left, often out of fear of detention or removal.
"The data we're looking at represents a dramatic shift," said Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Research Center. "The working-age population in the U.S. isn't growing. That means the only way for the labor force to expand is through new immigrants. If the workforce stalls, the economy faces challenges."
Passel also noted that the CPS sample size used to estimate the immigrant population is relatively small, meaning this year's data remains preliminary and incomplete.
In addition, Pew researchers warned that some of the reported decline may be misleading, as immigrant participation in the survey appears to be dropping—possibly due to fear or mistrust.
"This is really the first time we've seen a decline like this," Passel said. "It's still too early to tell whether the trend will continue through the rest of the year."
As of July 2023, roughly 6 million unauthorized immigrants were protected from deportation by specific immigration statuses. However, as demonstrated by sudden policy shifts under the Trump administration, these protections can be rolled back with little warning.
Because unauthorized immigrants contribute significantly to the U.S. economy, a continued drop in this population could bring wide-reaching consequences.
A recent analysis by FWD.us estimates that eliminating these protections could reduce immigrant spending power by $13.4 billion annually and cut tax contributions by at least $3.2 billion. The economic toll would be felt across several key industries, with potential job losses including about 73,000 in leisure and hospitality, 60,000 in construction, 46,000 in manufacturing, 44,000 in health services, 36,000 in wholesale and retail, and 34,000 in business services.
The impact is already being felt in the food supply chain. A July 17 report by The Guardian found that staffing shortages are hitting everything from farms to restaurants.
"They are scared, there are fewer opportunities, and they are no longer prospering here," Elizabeth Rodriguez, director of farmworker advocacy at the National Farm Worker Ministry, told The Guardian. "Their fear will soon show up in the harvest, when we see smaller quantities of produce."
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