Substantial industry rumors (like Hi-Fi Rush and potentially other Xbox titles coming to PS5/Switch revealed via datamining) and a recent Xbox tweet point toward the potential pivot of Microsoft's Xbox brand away from producing consoles and toward third party development. The post from the Xbox account details a podcast in two days with "updates on the Xbox business," which doesn't sound very promising.
While the future of Xbox consoles may seem up in the air, Microsoft seems determined to sell games from all the publishers they've bought up at any cost. As observed in an article from The Verge, Microsoft hasn't seen nearly the projected growth in Game Pass subscriptions across platforms (when it still reported the number). The latest official number given is 25 million Game Pass subscribers in 2022— achieving a 28% growth rate instead of a targeted 73% growth rate.
An FTC leak last year revealed the existence of a disc-less Xbox Series X console, so the most fatal of interpretations for Xbox's console business might not be quite accurate— not yet, anyway. Consoles as a business model are generally accepted to be built upon the exclusive games they have to offer or, failing that, price-to-performance.
If Microsoft actually does turn Xbox into a full third-party publisher, it would be following the same console exit path as their direct industry predecessor, Sega— who incidentally developed exclusive Dreamcast sequels on Xbox, like Jet Set Radio: Future. The success of the aforementioned Hi-Fi Rush and Bomb Rush Cyberfunk inspired Sega to finally announce a new (still unreleased) Jet Set Radio at The Game Awards 2023. Strange how that specific game series seems to have roughly book-ended the Xbox console lifespan, at least if rumors of Xbox leaving console manufacturing are true.
Microsoft could be playing a dangerous game by releasing its Xbox exclusives on competing Nintendo and PlayStation platforms— where profits shared with competitors are arguably a pyrrhic victory as long as Xbox makes hardware. According to the Xbox tweet, we should be getting a better idea of its long-term plans on February 15th, just a day after Valentine's.
