Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell today, with the call at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Polymarket gives the company a 95% chance of beating estimates, but the livelier action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Satya Nadella and CFO Amy Hood will say.
Analysts expect earnings of $4.21 to $4.25 per share on revenue of about $87.7 billion, and the beat itself is nearly a lock. The real question is spending.
Alphabet posted a record quarter last week and dropped dramatically anyway, because its capex outlook spooked the market.
What Kalshi Predicts Nadella Will Say
“Memory” trades at 77%. Every AI server Microsoft racks needs vast amounts of it, and hyperscalers buying up the world’s supply have pushed some DRAM prices up 90% in a single quarter.
Hood guided to $190 billion in calendar 2026 capital spending last quarter and flagged a $25 billion hit from higher component prices.
“OpenAI” sits at 95%. Microsoft rewrote the relationship in April, ending its revenue-share payments to OpenAI and giving up Azure exclusivity while keeping a royalty-free license to OpenAI’s models through 2032.
“We fully plan to exploit it,” Nadella said at the time.
“AMD” trades at 64% after Microsoft committed July 20 to deploy Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMD) Helios racks for frontier model inference, becoming the first hyperscaler to sign up at scale.
“Anthropic” sits at 60% and “Maia” at 59%.
The two are linked: Anthropic is reportedly in preliminary talks to rent Azure capacity powered by Microsoft’s in-house Maia 200 chip.
Custom silicon is one of Microsoft’s clearest arguments that its enormous AI spending can eventually produce better economics, so expect management to emphasize it.
What Kalshi Predicts Nadella Will Skip
"Helios" trades at just 37%, a 27-point gap below "AMD." Traders expect executives to name the partner but may skip the product.
AMD does not expect Helios shipments to begin until later this year, making it a future capacity story rather than a meaningful contributor to Microsoft’s current results.
"Layoff / Job Cuts" trades at 12%, even though Hood said in April that Microsoft expects headcount to decline year over year.
Cutting staff while committing $190 billion to capital expenditure is an awkward juxtaposition, and traders expect management to discuss efficiency without ever quite saying "layoffs."
Reading the Board
Azure grew 40% last quarter. That’s now the bar, and every point below it makes the spending harder to defend. The spending itself is the other number: fiscal 2027 capex, which the memory crunch has been quietly rewriting for three months.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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