This kind of polling actually tells us more at this stage of the game than national poll. From the Politico today:
Voters in Reno, Nevada's Washoe County prefer Obama over Sen. John
McCain by a double-digit margin, 50 percent to 40 percent. A previous
Politico/Insider Advantage survey, taken October 9, showed the race
deadlocked in Washoe with Obama ahead of McCain, 46 percent to 45
percent.In Wake County, N.C., home to Raleigh and its suburbs, Obama leads
McCain by nine points, 52 percent to 43 percent. As in Washoe, this new
result represents a turn toward the Democratic nominee: Politico's last
survey of Wake County Oct. 9 had Obama on top by six points, 50 percent
to 44 percent.President George W. Bush won both these counties in 2000 and 2004. In
his second presidential bid, Bush won Wake by a thin, 51 percent to 49
percent margin, and bested Sen. John F. Kerry in Washoe, 51 percent to
47 percent. As the second-most populous counties in their respective
states, Wake and Washoe are critical to McCain's chances.
In other words, the most populous counties, the homes respectively to Las Vegas and Raleigh, will be Obama counties, and McCain will take the rural areas. So how these second-tier urban/suburban/exurban counties go may well decide how the states go.
