Good column by E.J. Dionne today on the importance of Michigan to Obama getting to 270 EV's:
Michigan matters hugely because it will be exceedingly difficult for Obama to assemble an electoral college majority unless he holds virtually every state carried by John Kerry four years ago. This is the most vulnerable of the big Kerry states. "Michigan," says [Democratic pollster Stan] Greenberg, "is the key to the whole map."
Most polls have given Obama a small lead, but he has special problems here...
Which include a relatively unpopular Democratic governor and a major city, Detroit, whose black mayor has recently been embroiled in a massive scandal and is headed to jail. Obama is barely ahead in most Michigan polls, but it's all margin-of-error stuff. The state has lots of rural and conservative areas.
Go to this handy-dandy interactive electoral map site and play around. Give Michigan to McCain and you see that Obama then has to win a lot more previously red swing states.
