Ok, we can all admit yesterday’s game against Arizona State didn’t go well, and that disappointment was addressed when Michigan State fell out of top-25 in both the Amway Coaches Poll and the AP Poll. However, there is another ranking system that was far kinder (and less reactionary) than the other two polls: ESPN and Bill Connelly’s SP+ Ranking system, which has Michigan State still in the top-25 at number 23 overall.
SP+ is a team efficiency ranking that is meant to cut through the noise of an unlucky loss or a weak win to predict future performance. This ranking system still has MSU’s defense in the top-5 at number 3, but MSU’s offense is ranked all the way down at 94 and the Spartans’ special teams unit is ranked number 69.
MSU actually started the season lower than they are now at number 26 overall in these rankings but were higher last week (number 18 overall) after their big win over Western Michigan.
From ESPN, here is what SP+ measures:
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
