The ESPN FPI is at it again. It has been in love with Michigan since the first release of all the crazy projections, and a dive a little deeper into the numbers suggest that the love is growing for the 2019 season.
So what is the ESPN FPI, or Football Power Index? According to ESPN itself, the FPI is described as … a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
Okay, that aside, we’re here to inform you that the wacky computer model that doesn’t make sense most of the time has Michigan at an almost 50/50 shot to win the conference. That’s crazy considering teams like Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State — and even Nebraska and Iowa are expected to be pretty good.
So where does Ohio State fall in the chances to win the conference? No, not second, but the ESPN FPI gives Ohio State the third best odds to win the Big Ten behind Penn State’s 10.4% chance. In fact the Buckeyes have almost identical odds as both Michigan State, Iowa and … wait for it — Minnesota. All are right around 8%.
Quite laughable really, but there it is. Below are the chances of the top ten teams in the Big Ten in taking home the conference crown. Shockingly, Illinois and Rutgers are nowhere to be found.
Best chance to win the Big Ten according to ESPN:
1 Michigan – 48.2%
2 Penn St – 10.4%
3 Ohio St – 8.7%
4 Michigan St – 8.3%
5 Iowa – 8.0%
6 Minnesota – 7.9%
7 Nebraska – 6.0%
8 Wisconsin – 1.4%
9 Northwestern – 0.6%
10 Purdue – 0.2%
— CFB Home (@CFBHome) July 21, 2019
