The “Hillary” signs were being ripped off the walls of R.U.B. BBQ Pub in Detroit, almost immediately after the AP projected that Bernie Sanders had won the Michigan primary, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:
Clinton’s staff sat-sad faced staring at the results were projected across the row of TVs hung above the bar, while the few supporters left at the primary watch party shook their heads in disbelief.
“This was a huge disappointment,” said Silvia Tineo-Perez, a volunteer with the Clinton campaign. “I can’t believe it.”
After a day spent knocking on doors, Tineo-Perez said she noticed a gender and generational gap between Clinton and Sanders. Still she ended the day feeling confident that Clinton would win the industrial state.
.@BernieSanders is the projected winner of the Michigan primary in huge upset pic.twitter.com/9CyMFrsd7J
— Lauren Gambino (@LGamGam) March 9, 2016
“This worries me,” Tineo-Perez said of Sanders’ win. “I was really afraid of that.”
Tineo-Perez, who is originally from Venezuela, said she is skeptical of revolutionary candidates who make big promises.
“I don’t think Bernie is Hugo Chavez. No, of course not! He wouldn’t go that far,” she said. “But he can’t do what he says he’s going to do. Free college? No. That’s not going to happen. He’s lying to the kids.”
US Congresswoman Brenda Lawrence, a Democrat from Michigan, said the loss in the state was a setback but she was confident this didn’t disrupt her path to the nomination.
“It’s a 50-50 delegate split,” Lawrence said. “We’re going to move on and learn from this. The people spoke. That’s where we are.”
In the back of the pub, the staffers gathered around a table and clinked glasses. “She will be our next president,” one staffer declared. “On to the next.”
Summary
As we await the result of the Republican caucuses in Hawaii, here’s a summary of where things stand:
- Vermont senator Bernie Sanders won a stunning upset in Michigan [corrected] over former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who had been projected to win the state by a polling average of 20 points. So much for Michigan polling.
- Clinton did not slip in the delegate race owing in part to a big win in Mississippi. She’s up 1,220-571 delegates by AP’s count.
- But the Democratic race felt rattled in its foundations, with Sanders refreshing his claim on leading a political movement of national scope. Michigan’s regional neighbors, Illinois and Ohio, vote next week. The looming Democratic battle appeared likely to fill multiple months.
- It was a strong night for Donald Trump, who snapped up quick victories with healthy margins in Mississippi and Michigan. Trump invited Republicans to join his movement, guaranteeing a general election victory in November. He’s up 428-315 delegates on Cruz, by AP’s count.
Like I said today, Donald Trump still won't be the oh just pass me the scotch.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) March 9, 2016
- Texas senator Ted Cruz snagged a win in Idaho, where Trump was running a distant second.
- Which brings us to Florida senator Marco Rubio, who had a terrible night. He failed to cleared thresholds to claim any delegates at all in Michigan and Mississippi and Idaho. Ohio governor John Kasich beat him in both “M” states.
- Kasich claimed momentum off a third-place – it was almost second! – finish in Michigan. Elsewhere he was out of the running.
- Sanders appears to have pulled off his win by performing better than expected in areas with a high concentration of African American voters.
- “Not only is Michigan the gateway to the rest of the industrial Midwest, the results there show that we are a national campaign,” Sanders said.
Updated
Initial indications of voter turnout appear to be positive but with some negative consequences, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi:
In Michigan, at least three voting precincts are reported to have run out of ballots, including in Flint. In Ingham County, everyone appears to have been able to vote before polls closed at 8pm but only thanks to municipal clerks who quickly began photocopying ballot forms when the shortage became apparent.
Cruz wins Idaho
Hardly a voting night goes by anymore without a Ted Cruz win. This one’s no different– he’s just picked up Idaho, according to AP projections.
Rubio, meanwhile, appears to be trying to finish out of the delegates again.
Idaho has a 20% threshold for receiving delegates. Rubio currently at 18.4%. Wow, it can't get much more brutal for him.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
Sanders: 'we are a national campaign'
Here’s a statement from Bernie Sanders on his Michigan win, issued by his campaign:
I am grateful to the people of Michigan for defying the pundits and pollsters and giving us their support. This is a critically important night. We came from 30 points down in Michigan and we’re seeing the same kind of come-from-behind momentum all across America.
Not only is Michigan the gateway to the rest of the industrial Midwest, the results there show that we are a national campaign. We already have won in the Midwest, New England and the Great Plains and as more people get to know more about who we are and what our views are we’re going to do very well.”
Yeesh.
All of the Michigan polls: pic.twitter.com/IrjnZLznky
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) March 9, 2016
Sanders: Thank you, Michigan!
The corporate media counted us out. The pollsters said we were way behind. But we won. Thank you, Michigan. pic.twitter.com/Iywg9N3B1z
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) March 9, 2016
Updated
What does the Sanders victory in Michigan mean? It means the Democratic primary race goes on – likely for months. It means there’s no reason Sanders can’t win other rust belt states – and big states – including two that vote next Tuesday, Illinois and Ohio. It means the narrative of Sanders’ political revolution has dramatic new fuel, and that Clinton needs to find a new pitch to voters.
For Sanders, it likely means $$$:
Forget the delegate math. Bernie's small-donor juggernaut is going to be minting money after a big industrial state win
— Charlie Mahtesian (@PoliticoCharlie) March 9, 2016
Cruz moves into second in Michigan
John Kasich half-proclaimed a second-place finish in Michigan earlier.
But Ted Cruz has passed him: with 91.8% reporting, it’s 24.7-24.3 Cruz. Trump’s at 36.8%.
Visit our full results page here.
Read Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts on Sanders’ big win:
It might sound crazy but according to the Green Papers, 1,937 of the votes cast so far in Michigan are for extremely former Democratic candidate Martin O’Malley, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi:
Ok, that’s only 0.2% of the votes counted but it’s still surprising. The explanation is a simple one though: ballot papers were printed before O’Malley dropped out on February 1. And reprints are just too damn expensive. This is an issue that may well be apparent in several primaries to come and no matter how low the numbers are, it still represents a frustrating waste of people’s democratic say.
Low whistle. Maybe there is something to the notion that political polling is imperfect:
Bernie's odds of winning Michigan this morning, according to @538. It was a rounding error. pic.twitter.com/M8l4h62uJQ
— Nathan McDermott (@Nate_McDermott) March 9, 2016
Sanders wins Michigan
Bernie Sanders has claimed victory in Michigan, the AP projects. An upset!
On the other hand – she appears to have gained delegates tonight, with an 83-16 lead in Mississippi. Sanders barely cleared the 15% threshold there to avoid a delegates shutout.
Updated
Michigan has an open primary, meaning that registered voters can show up and pick a race to vote in, Republican or Democratic.
Some voter appear to have crossed from the Democratic race to cast anti-Trump votes on the Republican side. And yet Trump’s popular vote in the state – about 430,000, with 88% reporting – in a four-way race is not so significantly behind the popular vote Clinton is receiving in a two-way race: she’s at about 506,000 with 90% reporting.
And to what extent would this kind of crossover vote account for Clinton’s softer numbers this time among African Americans, which she appears to be winning around 2-to-1? Were there thousands upon thousands of such cases?
I just keep meeting Dems in MI who say Hillary has the primary locked, so they cast anti-Trump votes for Kasich.
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) March 8, 2016
I wonder how much this affected the Dem primary. A MI friend also told me HRC had it locked, wanted to cross over https://t.co/XaaSPigajR
— Jonathan Chait (@jonathanchait) March 9, 2016
Late in the race in Michigan, Clinton accused Sanders of opposing the auto bailout – a foolish overreach, in the view of at least one local:
David Axelrod speaking the truth on CNN: "Clinton struck a false note on the auto bailout."
— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) March 9, 2016
While Hillary Clinton spoke in Cleveland, Ohio, her supporters in Detroit watched the Donald Trump show, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino at the scene:
“We need her to heal the divisiveness that this has caused,” said Michelle Brown, a Detroit-based author and activist, gesturing toward the row of TVs all showing Trump’s speech. “We need her. We need her to help us heal.”
Brown said she wasn’t aware that Clinton was also speaking, but said that didn’t surprise her.
“We can’t escape him,” she said. “The media loves it.”
As the evening wore on, the race remained tight, with Sanders maintaining a slight edge.
“I’m on the edge of my seat,” said US representative Brenda Lawrence of Michigan, a Clinton supporter. “We worked so hard for this.”
Lawrence said she went to churches and community centers, even opening up her campaign office for volunteers to use as a phone bank.
Some supporters wandered out of the bar around 10pm, confident that she would pull off a victory.
“We got this,” one woman shouted back at me as she left the bar. She patted the man next to her on the shoulder. “We’re going to win this.”
But Mike Newbecker, a field engineer and business owner based in Newport, Michigan, wasn’t as confident.
“You can’t take any state for granted,” he said.
In his view, a loss in Michigan wouldn’t dent Clinton’s prospects but it could energize Sanders supporters and push the Democratic primary into the summer.
“He’s a good guy. I like his message, and we’re going to need his help in the general,” he said.
As for what’s happening on the other side of the aisle, Newbecker said he’s genuinely at a loss.
“Trump scares the hell out of me,” Newbecker said. “An ego that big in office, expect chaos. What would he do? Start talking about Putin’s business.”
Idaho polls closed
Idaho polls closed at the top of the hour. Too early to make any snap calls.
Hawaii polling stations close at 1am ET.
Sanders sees 'extremely successful' night
Sanders appears at his impromptu news conference, in what looks like somebody’s backyard, in front of a board fence with a few Sanders posters hanging on it. He’s in Florida.
“It is not clear yet who will win this election here in Michigan,” Sanders says. He thanks the people of Michigan “who repudiated the polls, who repudiated the pundits.”
He calls the night “enormously successful.” “Whether we win or lose tonight in Michigan, basically the delegates will be split,” he says.
What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people’s revolution that we are talking about, is strong in every part of the country and frankly we believe that our strongest areas have yet to happen.
This Sanders presser in front of some log wall in Miami really feels like something out of 1972. (As do other aspects of his campaign.)
— Matt Bai (@mattbai) March 9, 2016
Updated
Sanders to speak
In a surprise, Bernie Sanders it about to address supporters. You can watch here:
Updated
A round of cheers rang out at R.U.B BBQ Pub in Detroit when CNN projected Hillary Clinton had won Mississippi.
Supporters at her watch party in Detroit wore Clinton stickers and munched politely on a spread of coconut shrimp and wings.
The Mississippi win was a step forward, but it was also expected - and the night’s real prize was still Michigan, where polls hadn’t yet closed.
William Armstrong, an AFT Union member from White Lake, Michigan, spent the day knocking on doors to encourage Michiganders to support Clinton.
Armstrong said he has nothing against her opponent, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, and appreciates many of his policies but believes Clinton is the candidate who can actually deliver for progressives.
“I think she fits the moment,” he said. “She’s the one who can win it - not only the general election, which she can win, but her agenda. She can win as a president.”
Armstrong was joined at the watch party by fellow volunteer Motoo Unno, a teacher from Japan, who has come to the US to campaign for Clinton - and learn a bit more about US politics.
“In Japan canvassing is prohibited,” Unno said. “They think canvassing is a bribe.” So naturally Unno has taken great pleasure going door to door to canvass for Clinton.
“It’s such a good feeling,” he said, “when someone comes to the door and talks to you.”
“It all comes down to Florida,” Marco Rubio bravely tweets. He’s lucky it doesn’t all come down to Michigan, where he’s in a distant fourth place tonight despite ^his proxies^ outspending his rivals, or to Mississippi, where he’s in a distant fourth place.
In one week it all comes down to Florida. Where it all began. #FLPrimaryhttps://t.co/GzYS0liPVO
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 9, 2016
Updated
Bernie Sanders is outperforming expectations in Michigan tonight and it comes as he’s facing the biggest test of his campaign, writes Guardian US columnist Lucia Graves.
After all, if Sander’s message about workers’ rights and class warfare can’t resonate in Michigan, a state still reeling from job loss in the manufacturing industry, he’s is in serious trouble.
But as the polls roll in, it’s looking increasingly like it is resonating. Sanders has focused on trade in Michigan, hoping the issue would be a silver bullet of sorts for him, in going after Clinton. And it may be that he was right to choose that emphasis. The impacts of Nafta are still being felt here, and though the former secretary of state’s position on trade is currently more-or-less the same as Sanders (both are against the TPP and take issue with elements of NAFTA), she was – as Sanders has been at great pains to point out – late to the party on trade.
Clinton has performed well in Michigan too, shining a spotlight on issues like the water crisis in Flint to make sure they get the national attention they deserve. But she’s facing a real challenge from Sanders here.
In many ways, Tuesday’s election can be read as a precursor for the March 15th vote, which features important contests in Florida and Ohio. Sanders’ strong performance in Michigan signals Clinton may face a serious challenge from him in Ohio. And if Sanders can keep it up, he may keep Clinton from moving toward March 15 like she’s running in a general.
Updated
No matter who you like on the Democratic side – both either or neither – this is a dramatic race in Michigan. Follow county-by-county results right here.
Instead of Wolf Blitzer jumping up & down every time Sanders or Clinton moves up or down in Mich, why not just wait for the count to finish?
— Ken Rudin (@kenrudin) March 9, 2016
Wet blanket.
Updated
Hillary Clinton has just finished speaking in Cleveland. Preempted on television by Trump. Significant? Portentous? We’re listening to a recording. Very stump-y so far. Very non-Trump-y.
Meanwhile in Michigan:
A bunch of Detroit just reported in and now Clinton up 22 in Wayne... and closes statewide to within 1.6 points...
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) March 9, 2016
Still more than half the precincts out in the county of Wayne... So should be exciting as more comes in.
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) March 9, 2016
Updated
Kasich wishes for second
The Ohio governor is calling the night in Michigan loong before it’s through.
Kasich refers to “the three of us” competing in the remaining GOP primaries. i.e., writing off Marco.
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) March 9, 2016
Live stream:
Kasich, likely looking at Wayne County: "In all likelihood, we're going to finish in second place."
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) March 9, 2016
Mmm...wouldn't be too sure about that given what's out. https://t.co/Om3tKJ73bs
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
Mmm...wouldn't be too sure about that given what's out. https://t.co/Om3tKJ73bs
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
Seems like Kasich is giving a victory speech now. He still has not won anywhere.
— Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) March 9, 2016
Updated
We heard this too.
The big story tonight: Trump is really trying to make peace with the GOP Establishment.
— Matt O'Brien (@ObsoleteDogma) March 9, 2016
Toward the end of his news conference (which is finally over) Trump said he thought two of his most vocal critics, Senator Lindsey Graham and 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, were probably nice guys and he could probably get along with them.
And Trump speaks and speaks, almost an hour in now, taking questions, musing on his general election prospects, calling for party unity, guaranteeing a win... as Clinton trails Sanders in Michigan.
Everybody’s trying to figure out what is going on in Michigan, with Sanders’ apparent unexpected strength in Wayne County, which is Detroit and environs.
FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten wonders if the initial numbers don’t include Detroit:
I’m looking on the Wayne County clerk’s website to try to get an idea of where the vote is being reported from in Wayne County. It seems, at least as of earlier this hour, that Detroit was at 0 percent. The nearly uniformly white areas of Grosse Pointe Shores and Plymouth were at 100 percent. In other words, the percentages coming out of Wayne County right now don’t really reflect how black areas are voting.
And yet:
Still a lot of Wayne and Genesee out, but fact is Sanders is doing better than we'd expect with votes already in there. (1/?)
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) March 9, 2016
And indeed as more of Wayne and Genesee report, Sanders is actually gaining in those counties as his overall lead stretches to 5 points.
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) March 9, 2016
Updated
Trump takes on a political ad of the last week hitting him for his potty mouth. “I can be more presidential than anybody,” he says.
“People are sick and tired of being politically correct. And I actually thing that ad was good for me.
I watched that ad, and I said, you know that ad shows a certain degree of anger... we’re not going to take it any more from countries ripping us off like we’re a bunch of babies. Very very stupid babies.
Trump: “I like to close things out.”
I really want to close things out. I have not even focused on Hillary yet. Hillary’s going to be very easy to beat. She’s a flawed candidate, she’s a very flawed candidate.”
Then Trump questions Rubio’s strategy tack of the last two weeks, in which the Florida senator began going after Trump in Trumpian terms.
“He would have been better off keeping the original pitter-patter going. But this didn’t work.”
Some analysts agree:
Whoever told Rubio to mock Donald Trump by being Trump is the worst
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) March 9, 2016
Completely. Blew up his image, message. https://t.co/DRlYNv9dpR
— Alex Leary (@learyreports) March 9, 2016
Trump is bragging about his wealth versus the other candidates:
I have much more money than all of them put together times 20.
32% of the returns are in in the Democratic race in Michigan.
Sanders is ahead of Clinton 51.1%-47.0%.
Our results page is here.
Sanders looks stronger with black voters in Michigan
Interesting in Michigan – as districts with higher proportions of African American voters report results – Bernie Sanders appears to be performing better with the demographic versus Clinton than usual:
Sanders doing significantly better with black voters in Mich than elsewhere...
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) March 9, 2016
White
Sanders 59%
Clinton 39%
Black
Clinton 64%
Sanders 32%
If Clinton's only winning black voters by 30 points, there's no reason to assume she overtakes Sanders with a huge margin in Detroit.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 9, 2016
Here’s how Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight sees it:
If Sanders winds up winning in Michigan, in fact, it will count as among the greatest polling errors in primary history.
Trump now refers to the steaks. It appears they are there to prove they still exist. “We have Trump steaks here,” he says. Then he says “we have Trump magazines here.” He explains he sold Trump airlines but made a good deal.
“Trump University, we’re holding it. When I win the lawsuit... we’re putting on hold. If I become president, that means Ivanka, Don, Eric and my people will start it up...”
He says you never settle lawsuits because then you get sued too much.
Trump is talking like a nominee. He talks about holding the Republican senate majority. Party insiders have predicted down-ticket disaster if he is the Republican nominee.
Trump says turnout is way up and that he is expanding the party.
He says “Ted’s gonna have a hard time” in the north and northeast, while “we’re gonna do great.”
Who has cause to doubt him?
Meanwhile, another chapter in the fall of Rubio is being written tonight:
Just a few weeks ago, Rubio was getting between 17% and 20% of the vote in the MI GOP primary. Wow.
— Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) March 9, 2016
Michigan is a big win for Trump, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi:
And it’s not just because the state offered up 59 delegates, proportionately awarded – it’s also because of who the individuals were who voted there. Michigan’s voting population is pretty similar to the national numbers in terms of age, income and education. That could be good for Trump as candidates begin to think about shifting their rhetoric towards being the best chance for their party to win the general election.
Michigan is also meaningful because it brings Trump closer to the 1,237 delegates needed to get the nomination - before tonight, the New York businessman had 384.
However there’s also reason for Trump supporters to temper their enthusiasm at the Michigan results - Trump was pretty likely to have won there.
Polling averages ahead of tonight’s results showed the candidate with 37% of support, ahead of Ohio governor John Kasich in second place on 25%. For Trump to really secure his long-term victory, he needs to make sure that his wins tonight translate into support in the states voting next Tuesday which will be more important in terms of delegates. That could be all about messaging - something which so far, the Trump campaign has proven adept at doing.
Trump wins Michigan
The Associated Press calls Michigan for Trump. And now it appears to be a tightening race for second. Can Kasich stave off Cruz?
Trump has won MI, but Kasich margin over Cruz for 2nd narrowing. Now down to 6.1%: https://t.co/wqH2Y98jn1
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
Updated
Trump holds victory news conference
Trump is talking now in Jupiter. He says so many horrible things were said about him in one week. But the public knew they were lies.
He thanks the people of Michigan and Mississippi.
Then he starts bragging about how the Trump golf club where he is was designed by Jack Nicklaus.
Then Trump points out former Yankee Paul O’Neill in the crowd.
Nicklaus, O’Neill-- who’s next?
Say goodbye to the notion that Donald Trump is fading – early in the evening the Donald is already the projected winner in Mississippi. It’s a state that common sense dictates should belong to Cruz, whose worked hard to court religious conservatives and win over the south. But that strategy didn’t work for him on Super Tuesday, and now, apparently, it’s deja vu all over again.
It’s a sour pill to swallow for the Texas senator who was buoyed by the results of Saturday’s elections when it was he and not Trump who took home the lion’s share of delegates (Cruz won easily in Maine and Kansas, finishing close behind Trump in Louisiana and Kentucky.) Yet a second-place finish in Mississippi would by no means be devastating for Cruz. Sure he wants to have a good night Tuesday, and this was a state where many thought he might shine, but Cruz isn’t so far behind Trump when it comes to delegate math and he’ll be fine no matter what happens tonight.
Perhaps a Trump victory is worse news for a Republican establishment that made unprecedented efforts to blunt Trump’s momentum this week; and surely it’s cold comfort for a class of pundits that’s long predicted the billionaire mogul’s political demise.
And then there’s this simple logic: if Cruz is going to overtake Trump, he has to start winning at some point and not just doing well. He just lost his best chance to do that tonight.
Could Trump cross 50% statewide in Mississippi? With 8.7% of returns in, Trump has 49.7% of the vote. Full returns here – with maps, and animated candidates riding scissors lifts!
Key question in MS: could it be the first state to give any GOP candidate a majority?
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
We’re watching for Trump to appear any moment now at his news conference in Jupiter, Florida – and would invite you to watch along below.
It looks like it’s shaping up to be a big, happy night for Trump after all.
In Michigan, according to exit polling and results in thus far, Donald Trump appears to have chalked up a big win among men – which then disappears among women, who desert him for Ted Cruz, Ben Jacobs points out:
Holy gender gap in Michigan for Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/VRAJPNC3Lm
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) March 9, 2016
Here’s a robocall Arnold Schwarzenegger recorded for John Kasich for dissemination in Hawaii.
Schwarzenegger calls Kasich an “action hero” and at the end gratifies fans of his own onscreen action work.
“Mahalo. Get to the caucus!”
Michigan polls set to close
We’ve had some early results out of Michigan – but all polling stations are preparing to close at 9pm ET, and we expect further results soon after.
The Democratic race appears to be more competitive than the 20-point spread in Hillary Clinton’s advantage that you read about in the polling averages. With the big caveat that key populous, urban and suburban counties expected to support Clinton have yet to fully report... the race is neck-and-neck.
As usual get all your results right here:
Rubio faces delegate desert
With laggardly performances in Mississippi and Michigan tonight – he appears on track to come in fourth both places – Marco Rubio could be shut out of the delegate haul, observes Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman:
It now looks like Marco Rubio will be shut out of delegates in BOTH Michigan and Mississippi.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 9, 2016
Mississippi awards Republicans 25 at-large delegates and 12 per congressional district. But if a candidate fails to hit 15% statewide, he or she is shut out of the delegate riches. And if a winning candidate crosses 50% in any one district – Trump appears on the cusp – he or she gets all the delegates.
In Michigan, meanwhile, any candidate who fails to hit 15% statewide is shut out of all delegates.
Like I said today, Donald Trump still won't be the oh just pass me the scotch.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) March 9, 2016
Trump projected to win Mississippi
Within the hour of polling closures, Trump is recognized as the Mississippi winner. Trump won neighboring Alabama 43-21 over Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio chalked up 19 points in the state.
The Mississippi margin looks healthy for Trump. More to come shortly.
Thank you Mississippi! #Trump2016
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2016
Paul O'Neill, the former Yankee, is at this Trump press conference. He is a big Trump supporter he says
— Ben Terris (@bterris) March 9, 2016
Whew, those raw steaks on a table at Trump’s scheduled 9pm ET news conference are shrink-wrapped. Spoilage alert off, they’ll hold till dinner.
Here’s a close-up:
Close up of the "Trump Steaks." Does that say Bush Brothers? There's a Bush Brothers in WPB https://t.co/hhdMzBTBrJ pic.twitter.com/Ro3BiwwXkC
— Greg Pollowitz (@GPollowitz) March 9, 2016
Bush brothers? So Trump steaks are really from Jeb and George W? https://t.co/nSvVpXwJqd
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) March 9, 2016
Results from Michigan are trickling in, though not many have come yet. Eleven counties are now reporting, identified over in our maps room. With only 3.2% of results in, Kasich is hanging within a couple points of Trump. But it’s early and the numbers are shifty.
With over 20% of precincts in in Oakland County, Trump and Kasich are in a virtual tie there pic.twitter.com/KsbBa9D3Av
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) March 9, 2016
FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten sees a potential good sign for Trump:
Trump is leading in all 9 counties reporting so far in Michigan. Shaping up if later returns hold to be a good night for him there.
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) March 9, 2016
Updated
Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs is doing a languorous backstroke in the Mississippi exit pool polls.
Ben observes Trump crushing Rubio head-to-head among Mississippi Republicans; Trump dependably losing more highly educated voters; Trump winning Magnolia state Republicans who care most about electability ... and a whole lot more right here.
In a one on one race against Rubio, Trump wins in a landslide among Mississippi Republicans pic.twitter.com/CUOCus6Wh0
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) March 9, 2016
As per usual pattern, the better educated voters are, the worse Trump does pic.twitter.com/fH2m1sSB63
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) March 9, 2016
Trump handily wins Mississippi voters who care about electability pic.twitter.com/XoGOWq7LhH
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) March 9, 2016
It’s no surprise that the first polls of the evening are already show Hillary Clinton as the projected winner for Democrats in Mississippi but it is important insurance for the former first lady. That’s because Bernie Sanders will be fighting to show he can give her a run for her money in Michigan, the other Democratic primary state with an election tonight. And a solid win in Mississippi will remind voters that even if Sanders can miraculously eek out a win or tie in Michigan, he’ll still be losing handily to her when it comes to the nuts and bolts of the election: delegates.
Clinton is expected to trounce Sanders in Mississippi on a scale similar to what happened in South Carolina, where Sanders lost by close to 50 points!
Whatever happens in Michigan, this resounding win in Mississippi is a reminder that regardless of narrative and what pundits say about “momentum,” Sanders is facing a lose-lose situation tonight when it comes to numbers.
Regardless of how the election goes, Sanders is powering on undaunted here in Miami tonight and his fired-up supporters do not seem at all ready to think about voting for Hillary Clinton yet, writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:
There are repeated boos for the former secretary of state when Hawaiian congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard mentions her in introductory remarks on foreign policy.
Ramon Febus, a mature student at the University of Miami, is one of those in the crowd determined not to vote for Clinton if she wins, and is wearing a “Hillary for Prison” T-shirt in the shape of her campaign logo.
“Fool me once,” he says, blaming Clinton for not standing by promises to his home of Puerto Rico when she was secretary of state. “This email scandal is like going after Al Capone for tax”.
But he recognises that Sanders needs to do more much work to win the nomination.
“He needs to talk to minorities more and convince people like my Dad that when he speaks about socialism he doesn’t mean Castro and Chavez,” adds Febus.
first mention of Hillary Clinton at Bernie rally in Miami (before he's even on stage) brings usual boos from crowd. no sign of healing yet.
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) March 9, 2016
Your one-stop video live stream
We have it on good information that this single magic live stream will tonight bring you speeches by the following:
Donald Trump - Jupiter, Florida;
Marco Rubio - Ponte Vedra, Florida;
John Kasich - Columbus, Ohio;
Ted Cruz – TBA;
Hillary Clinton - Detroit, Michigan;
Right now, you’ll notice, the stream is bringing you a Bernie Sanders rally from Miami:
Clinton projected to win Mississippi
Hillary Clinton is projected to win the Democratic race in Mississippi, AP immediately projects. Donald Trump looks solid on the GOP side – but Ted Cruz appears to be competitive, based on exit polling.
A mountain of information about what kind of margins we’re talking about to come shortly.
Updated
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Updated
Mississippi polls about to close
The first polls are about to close in tonight’s voting, and we’re expecting pretty much immediate results out of Mississippi after the 8pm ET whistle.
Hillary Clinton has enjoyed very large polling leads in the state, while Donald Trump has enjoyed slightly less large polling leads.
Exit polls have indicated a Democratic electorate made up of 61% African American voters. On the Republican side, exit polls indicated that the majority of voters – 74% – made up their minds more than “a few days” ago. Of those who decided in the last few days, 42% said they went for Texas senator Cruz.
Visit our comprehensive results page here:
Visit our comprehensive results page
Our mapped county-by-county results tracker is the place to follow tonight’s returns – check it out here.
The exit poll temptation
In the 20 minutes before polls close in Mississippi...
Would you be interested in knowing that 42% of Mississippi voters who made up their minds in the “last few days” decided to vote for Ted Cruz? Or that the Michigan Democratic electorate tonight appears to have been about 69% white and 22% black? Or that 61% of Mississippi Democratic voters today and tonight were African American, or that... well you get the point.
Jump into MSNBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki’s Twitter timeline for a wealth of exit polling results and theorize away. (The web site of ABC News is also a good source for exit poll results.)
Trump, who does not use pollsters, has apparently conducted an exit poll of one – and he likes what he’s seeing:
Word is I am doing very well in Michigan and Mississippi! Wow, and with all that money spent against me! Will be going to Trump Jupiter now!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 8, 2016
Just come up for air every five minutes to repeat to yourself, “exit polls are not predictive. Exit polls are not predictive. Exit polls are not predictive.”
But look at Kasich among late deciders in Michigan:
EXIT POLLS: Marco Rubio not doing well with late deciders in Michigan. John Kasich fares the best: pic.twitter.com/57GAV2VLfH
— Shepard Smith (@ShepNewsTeam) March 8, 2016
Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a press conference in Jupiter, Florida, at 9pm ET.
That’s in 90 minutes.
And that appears to be raw steak, just sitting out. Unrefrigerated.
It looks like Trump really will throw his base red meat tonight.
But seriously what could this tableau mean? How will Trump work it into his speech? What point could he hope to make? Will he use the props to evoke the unsinkable quality of the Trump brand?
Will he serve it to the press?
Why is the news conference scheduled to land at 9pm ET, precisely when Michigan polls close?
Display of @realDonaldTrump wines, steaks & spring water for tonight's press conference in Jupiter. pic.twitter.com/4UE8M8aR93
— George Bennett (@gbennettpost) March 9, 2016
(h/t: @bencjacobs)
Are you a Sanders-Trump crossover voter?
Digging through the comments in a recent callout we did to secret Donald Trump supporters, we noticed a very striking trend: a big chunk of people who contacted us were Bernie Sanders fans who said that if he failed to win the Democratic nomination they intended to switch their vote not to Hillary Clinton, but to Donald Trump.
Is that you? Are you that? We’re fascinated and need you to tell us more:
Protesters at Mississippi statehouse decry flag
On the steps of the Mississippi statehouse on Tuesday, a collection of lawyers and pastors led a protest against the state flag - the last in the nation to feature the Confederate battle flag, writes Guardian US southern correspondent Matthew Teague from Jackson:
The protestors appealed to the one authority who may carry more weight in Mississippi than heritage does.
“The God of Jacob,” said Carlos Moore, an attorney who has filed a federal suit against the state and its governor, Phil Bryant. “If God is with us, who can be against us?”
Mississippi’s flag includes the Confederate emblem in its upper left quadrant. Tension around the flag has increased in recent years as similar flags in other southern states have come down. The latest was in South Carolina, and a lawyer from that state, Justin Bamberg, has joined Moore in his suit against Mississippi.
Holding a microphone on the Capitol steps, Bamberg addressed the state’s leaders directly.
“Mr. Governor, if you are listening, I urge you to exhibit true leadership,” he said. “Do the right thing.”
Bryant has denounced the suit as an effort to override the people’s will - in 2001, Mississippi residents voted to keep the flag’s current design.
In the meantime the state’s attorney general, Jim Hood, has said that he personally feels the flag should be changed, but considers it his duty to defend the state against Moore’s suit.
On Tuesday the church atmosphere peaked when Jamal Bryant, pastor of Baltimore’s Empowerment Temple, addressed the crowd. “I am here today because the Dukes of Hazzard were here yesterday,” he said, referencing a campaign stop by presidential contender Donald Trump. The crowd erupted, and many people raised their fists.
“Trump is a living Confederate flag,” the pastor said. “America has got to zoom in on Mississippi, and woe to us if we think it’s just about a flag.”
The protesters took up a chant: “Bring it down! Bring it down!”
Moore took the microphone again: “And the church said?”
“Amen!” the crowd responded.
Moore is 39, and after the demonstration he told the Guardian that he’s suing Mississippi for personal reasons. “I’m doing it for my daughter,” he said. She’s 5. “I’m doing it for her generation.”
Behind him, high on the statehouse steps, two members of the next generation of voters held a homemade sign. “This is not my flag,” it read. And “Pro-black does not mean anti-white.”
The girls, Maisie Brown, 14, and Brianna Cry, 16, said they came to the protest looking for insight from older people. “We’just learned about this two days ago,” Brown said. “I just learned about the meaning behind the flag.”
At the edges of the protest one woman stood openly weeping, holding a photo of her son. “He disappeared into the Mississippi system,” Pamela Bennett said. Her son, 27-year-old Deonte, was serving a three-year conviction for marijuana possession, and returned to prison in November for parole violation. Two months later, on 5 January, he died in his cell. She said she was never allowed to see or speak with him while he was in custody, and has not yet received an explanation for how he died.
“I’m here because the flag represents the mindset that you can just disappear into the system,” she said. “That’s what the flag means to me.”
Updated
Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts is not in a state that votes tonight, but he is in Florida, which could swing the election a week from tonight.
Dan’s there because, in a sign of what’s at stake on 15 March, all of the candidates are there or heading there. Donald Trump is an hour north of Miami, in Palm Beach, where he has scheduled a press conference at 9pm at the Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter. Hillary Clinton is flying in from Ohio tomorrow morning for the Democratic debate in Miami, and Marco Rubio has been in Tampa today. Ted Cruz, meanwhile, will host a rally in Miami tomorrow at 10am, and John Kasich will arrive in time for Thursday’s Republican debate.
On the 15th the state will award 99 Republican delegates in a winner-take-all contest, and 246 Democratic delegates awarded proportionately.
Dan has found a bumper crop of Sanders supporters:
Not a bad turnout at all for Bernie in Miami tonight. No TV screens though so I don't imagine any results watching. pic.twitter.com/XPrJGGtwlY
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) March 9, 2016
Updated
Mississippi voter profile
Name: Dale Williams
Age: 53
Occupation: Plasma cutting-machine operator
Voting for: Donald Trump
In Lucedale, Mississippi, Dale Williams only made up his mind as he entered the George County courthouse.
“Trump,” he said. He shrugged his shoulders inside his denim overalls. “If he wins, great, if he doesn’t, that’s all right too.”
Mainly, he said, he feels nostalgic for an America as he remembers it from his childhood.
“It was different when I was growing up, and I want a president who can take us back to there,” he said. “We we ever make it back? Probably not. But we can do better than we are now.”
His guiding principles were two, he said: “Biblical values, and the Constitution. I believe that’s what the founding fathers had in mind when they set things in motion.”
National poll depicts tightening GOP race
A poll released this afternoon from WSJ and NBC has found that the contest between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz to be Republican presidential nominee appears closer than previously thought, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi:
The national poll, which was conducted with just 397 respondents between March 3 and 6, found that Trump has the support of 30% of Republican primary voters - 3 percentage points ahead of Ted Cruz and 8 percentage points ahead of Kasich (who, after months of polling in single digits, appears to have grown in popularity in the past week).
Marco Rubio was in fourth place with just 20% of respondents selecting him as their first choice for Republican nominee.
Partly because of the low number of respondents, the margin of error on this poll is considerable - plus or minus 4.9 percentage points which could change the results significantly.
Compared to other national polls, collected and averaged by the site Real Clear Politics, Trump’s lead seems small - five polls collected between February 19 and March 6 (including the latest from WSJ/NBC) find an average Trump lead of 15.2 percentage points.
Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the big Michigan primary races and other voting across the country tonight. We expect to have results in some form for you in under two hours. Michigan polls close at 9pm ET.
Michigan’s important because it’s big, it’s symbolic of American manufacturing, is a potential regional bellwether (Ohio votes in one week) with an interesting demographic mix and because it would be a big deal for a Republican to show real strength here (the state is considered likely to land Democratic in the general election).
Mississippi is also hosting a primary tonight (8pm ET poll closure), and Idaho (11pm ET) and Hawaii (1am ET) are hosting Republican caucuses. We’ll bring you dispatches from the ground and immediate results all night, as finely pared as you care, on our master results page.
Let’s play pundit: Donald Trump’s Michigan result tonight will indicate whether his candidacy is continuing to lose altitude following his loss on Saturday in Kansas, a state he once led by double digits. Trump is in a terrible news cycle (see below) and Ohio governor John Kasich and Texas senator Ted Cruz both appeared to be nipping at his heels in weekend survey results.
Polling averages have Trump up 12 points in the state. Nationally he’s been pulling between 34% and 35% of the vote on average. Can Trump hit that mark in Michigan? If he doesn’t, there will be whispers … significant whispers. And should he lose – look out.
On the Democratic side, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders has taken his pitch for a reordered economy to voters with bittersweet memories of a once-thriving auto and manufacturing sector. Michigan’s demographics, with a mix of white and highly educated voters and an average African-American population, don’t look bad for Sanders – and yet former secretary of state Hillary Clinton leads polling averages by 20 points.
A quick note on Trump’s bad Tuesday: the Better Business Bureau debunked his claims about the quality of Trump University, a report came out that a previously unacknowledged amount of Trump-branded merchandise is made overseas, and a report came out that Trump claimed a tax break reserved for households making less than $500,000 a year.
